SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards

[Met4Cast]

Friday looks interesting for our region

That squiggly line could pep up some snow shower activity. What happened to, was it John Pike? He used to give daily FAX charts updates and rundowns at times like this.

Edited November 28, 2017 by Daniel Smith

[lassie23]

BBC weather forecast has it mild by the weekend with double figure temps returning across the region

[snowrye]

Jp was amazing,not been on here much over the last few months,and ive noticed a lot have gone

[Met4Cast]

Just now, lassie23 said:

BBC weather forecast has it mild by the weekend with double figure temps returning across the region

I think double figure temps will be a little too high, I don't know why the BBC always seem to add a couple of degrees to the actual temperatures, a warm front moving South around the high will bring less cold air in as the high sinks Southwards for a time. 

Likely to turn colder again after the briefly less cold spell.

[weathergeek]

Brief mild blip and then turning very cold and possibly snowy next week - if the GFS 18Z verified then we'd all be laughing!!!x

[lassie23]

6 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

I think double figure temps will be a little too high, I don't know why the BBC always seem to add a couple of degrees to the actual temperatures, a warm front moving South around the high will bring less cold air in as the high sinks Southwards for a time. 

Likely to turn colder again after the briefly less cold spell.

 

3 minutes ago, weathergeek said:

Brief mild blip and then turning very cold and possibly snowy next week - if the GFS 18Z verified then we'd all be laughing!!!x

They stopped at the weekend, I didn't know that they knew what was going to happen beyond Sunday, yet.

[snowray]

All of the television forecasts seem very poor, just showing sunshine and daytime temps 3-7c. Euro4 is telling another story though, looking pretty good for our region I'd say.

So why is there not even the mention of wintry showers for Thursday then by the forecasters?

[Daniel*]

26 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Friday looks interesting for our region

That squiggly line could pep up some snow shower activity. What happened to, was it John Pike? He used to give daily FAX charts updates and rundowns at times like this.

He does that elsewhere, I tried to post a link to the forum in here, however I was denied it required a moderators approval. Suffice, to say things really did go bad. 

That Friday Fax chart looks intriguing I do not recall a feature anything like that before perhaps it could result in an organised area of something. 

Yamkin told me he may pop on here sometime soon. 

[Britneyfan]

I think bbc will leave it till thursday morning before giving away any details with regards to snow! 

They did mention on twitter the south east could see snow showers thurs and Friday, so they have mentioned it, but not gone into detail, which I doubt they will until Thursday morning 

[moogyboobles]

I've been looking around the weather stations in my town and surrounding towns and there was a temperature blip. At 6pm it was pretty cold around 0.8°C in SWF, then it got warmer peaking around 4°C and back down again.
A similar pattern happened around.
Now I don't know what I'm talking about on here, I just like reading and hoping I learn something so I may say something stupid.

What was this blip? Could it have been passing cloud cover? Like it briefly trapped in the heat that was on it's way up?
Or something else entirely?

[Despicable Weather]

Hi Moogy

Often when temperature 'blips' are seen it corresponds to a change in the Barometric Pressure, such readings should be widely available on the weather stations you are looking at. 

Example : Here right now the 

Barometer

1007.4 hPa & Steady

 and 

Temperature

0.1°C

 

If rain was on it's way then it would say 'Falling Rapidly' or 'Falling Slowly' and the hPa reading would be decreasing whilst the temperature would very likely be rising as the moist air moves into the cold dryer air. These are general guidelines for this time of year and are a little different during warmer weather/Summer but for the moment stick with looking for drop in Barometric Pressure when you see rise in temperature and hopefully you will begin to see the connection.

There are likely other reasons which could effect what you have seen and those with better understanding will hopefully offer their guidance but that general rule of thumb has helped me understand what's going on before and after such temperature changes in a short space of time.

Edited November 29, 2017 by Despicable Weather
Missing word

[NO LONGER POSTING]

No frost here although it is very windy so assume that is why..

RE Thursday and Friday, things have changed from the weekend when @Daniel* and I were discussing the possibility of showers pushing inland... This now looks like a good chance from later today right through to Friday.. Wind direction is absolutely crucial to anything coming further inland.

Hiliram is a good option for us... But it usually sucks at this kind of thing it tends to over cook showers

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/hirlam.php?map=430

Next I would suggest EURO 4

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=pslv&INFO=1

Gives a good indication of showers moving in.. 

 

 

[snowray]

Heres the 00z Euro4 model. Still looking good for Thursday.

[yamkin]

Hi, The PPN is moving further inland than was expected. PPN is now pushing down into London/Kent areas which will fall as sleet/snow. Thursday and Friday will be very interesting with more wintry showers in the mix.

[stainesbloke]

10 hours ago, Daniel Smith said:

What happened to, was it John Pike? He used to give daily FAX charts updates and rundowns at times like this.

Enjoyed his daily updates very much, based on the fax charts too and not going into FI or over ramping. He hasn't posted here for ages, sadly. 

Much cloudier this morning here, the sky looks snowy lol, but it's 4C already so snow is unlikely for today, at least. 

[throwoff]

That is really powering south, did not expect to see it have so much energy moving down the country. 

It is turning into a interesting few days ahead, the MOD thread is a warzone, the toys are in and out of the pram on such a regular basis it is hard to keep track!

[Soaring Hawk]

Currently 3C, feels like -2 in bitter NW wind 14/gusting 25

Pressure 1009

Humidity 84%

Visibility very good

Am trying to pluck up courage to walk the dog over the shelterless flat open farmland now. Or wait until it warms up to the expected high of 5C. 

[Methuselah]

4C here too...lots of showers, with a touch of sleet. In a word: dreich!

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Seems the showers are really pushing inland and it's not even favourable conditions yet, the wash will be my friend for the next few days I think, if that can fire up showers they get that little extra oomph to come inland. 

[Delka]

7 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Seems the showers are really pushing inland and it's not even favourable conditions yet, the wash will be my friend for the next few days I think, if that can fire up showers they get that little extra oomph to come inland. 

The Wash is anything but a friend living by the mouth of it! All it does it minimise snowfall in nearly every circumstance, and can't forget the freezing wind that channels down from the Lincolnshire coast 

Although, we did just get snow flakes mixed in with a moderate rain shower and it's only the end of November with winter only beginning i'm hopeful..

[NO LONGER POSTING]

4 minutes ago, Delka said:

The Wash is anything but a friend living by the mouth of it! All it does it minimise snowfall in nearly every circumstance, and can't forget the freezing wind that channels down from the Lincolnshire coast 

Although, we did just get snow flakes mixed in with a moderate rain shower and it's only the end of November with winter only beginning i'm hopeful..

Agreed, if you live close to the coast unfortunately the sea is still too warm to benefit from any showers. Give it a month and it should be better. 

[Laurence Hill]

30 minutes ago, yamkin said:

Hi, The PPN is moving further inland than was expected. PPN is now pushing down into London/Kent areas which will fall as sleet/snow. Thursday and Friday will be very interesting with more wintry showers in the mix.

Nice to see you back Yamkin!

[Methuselah]

Twill be one of those days, I'm afraid: lights on, lights off, lights on, lights off...

[yamkin]

19 minutes ago, Sharpedge said:

Nice to see you back Yamkin!

Thanks

[warrenb]

https://twitter.com/bbcweather/status/935813389821018112

Edited November 29, 2017 by warrenb