Worldwide Mountain & Snow Sports Discussion 2017/18

[johnholmes]

On 2/17/2018 at 10:32, Blessed Weather said:

Off on my annual March pilgrimage to Val Cenis in the French Alps on the 10th. We normally call it our "summer holiday" as the last several years have provided warm sunshine and lazy lunches on restaurant terraces. But I think this year's trip might be rather colder! I just wish I could go skiing as often as you do - you lucky bloke!! You'll be needing the hip flask full of schnapps next weekend!

I wish I could ski as often as either of you. Still I have had nearly 30 years, living in hope for 2019!

Anyway both enjoy the skiing, the views and not forgetting the food and drink.

Drop some piccs in when you have time lads.

[hubba_dubba]

Hope i have put this in the right forum, apologizes if not.. But..

 

I am planning a photo shoot out in Andorra from Monday 26th Feb for a few days, with the SSW in full swing and incoming cold spell, what are peoples thoughts on the weather in Andorra for the above mentioned period. The shoot is fairly hefty to organize and I don't want to get there and find it's whiteout conditions or too cold for models..

 

Thanks in advance.

[Blessed Weather]

1 hour ago, hubba_dubba said:

Hope i have put this in the right forum, apologizes if not.. But..

I am planning a photo shoot out in Andorra from Monday 26th Feb for a few days, with the SSW in full swing and incoming cold spell, what are peoples thoughts on the weather in Andorra for the above mentioned period. The shoot is fairly hefty to organize and I don't want to get there and find it's whiteout conditions or too cold for models..

Thanks in advance.

Hi. It's very difficult to say at 7+ days away, particularly with the SSW adding to model uncertainty. I think there is definitely a risk that it could be cold and snowy over the few days you are in Andorra. This evening the ECM model is tracking the very cold air further south than previously modelled. It's only one run but highlights that forecasts are still changing at the 7 to 10 day range. If ECM is correct, it could turn very cold in Andorra.

Some charts from this evening. First the 500hPa charts showing the cold air over Europe and close to Andorra on the 27th Feb. 

GFS  ECM

Next the 2m temperature and precipitation charts for Spain/Andorra for 13.00 on the 27th show it chilly and snowing at altitude (cool and raining at lower altitude).

So a difficult call for you. If you are able to stall a decision I'd recommend waiting until later this coming week to make it. (Let me know if you'd like the updated charts posted then). You could also use this snow forecasting website to check likely weather for a specific resort in Andorra, but it only goes out 5 days. http://www.snow-forecast.com/

Good luck!

[Wizzobell]

On 2/17/2018 at 10:06, carinthian said:

Morning Malcolm, not the best of days today, a lot of low cloud and light snowfall.  Just plenty of snow for new arrivals today, one of the busiest of the season. Temps OF -20C on the mountain next weekend. That's dangerous. Obviously as we go into March the sunshine makes for great ski-ing, so a good prospect for the rest of the season more than likely. Just back from Dolomites and they are having one the best snow season for quite a long time with low temps keeping the wonderful snow conditions down there. Meeting up with some old ski pal next weekend in Rauris, think I will have to bring my thermals, hip flask and hot water bottle. At least the runs there are soon back in the village and cosy mountain huts to keep warm with a beverage or two !  You off back to the Alps for a late one ?

C

 

Hi Carinthian, Austrian snow lover with a trip planned to Obertauern in Salzburg at the back end of March. The current ensemble forecast for next week is outrageous for cold but I was wondering if any longer term seasonal forecasts were available 

[carinthian]

1 hour ago, Wizzobell said:

Hi Carinthian, Austrian snow lover with a trip planned to Obertauern in Salzburg at the back end of March. The current ensemble forecast for next week is outrageous for cold but I was wondering if any longer term seasonal forecasts were available 

I love Obertauern. Where you staying ? Its not too far from Katschberg on the same lift pass.  At that height of 1750 asl ( village ) will be a safe bet as anywhere. Think next week will be a bit too cold with altitude so glad I am staying in a lower resort for a week.Think you probabaly booked the best time of the season to go to Obertauern. I usually go for the snowboard music fest in April, always a good party atmosphere. Stay away from Edelweiss- Alm, its mad !

 C

[Wizzobell]

6 hours ago, carinthian said:

I love Obertauern. Where you staying ? Its not too far from Katschberg on the same lift pass.  At that height of 1750 asl ( village ) will be a safe bet as anywhere. Think next week will be a bit too cold with altitude so glad I am staying in a lower resort for a week.Think you probabaly booked the best time of the season to go to Obertauern. I usually go for the snowboard music fest in April, always a good party atmosphere. Stay away from Edelweiss- Alm, its mad !

 C

We also love Obertauern. It's an unknown destination the brits. I like to keep it that way ?Staying in the Petersbuhel for the first time this year.

Do any seasonal models\forecasts exist for the eastern alps as im always paranoid about the weather and snow conditions

[carinthian]

11 hours ago, Wizzobell said:

We also love Obertauern. It's an unknown destination the brits. I like to keep it that way ?Staying in the Petersbuhel for the first time this year.

Do any seasonal models\forecasts exist for the eastern alps as im always paranoid about the weather and snow conditions

We do get seasonal forecasts but not use to individual weeks like yours. I know they have plenty of depth and the runs are in fantastic condition.  You will just be fine at the end of March even if if gets a bit warm it still freezes at night and snow blowers come into operation. Obertauern as you know has one of the longest ski-ing seasons in the whole of the Alps . I will be staying at Hotel Schneider during the festival. Good luck with the weather and I am sure the snow will be good .

C 

[hubba_dubba]

On 18/02/2018 at 20:50, Blessed Weather said:

Hi. It's very difficult to say at 7+ days away, particularly with the SSW adding to model uncertainty. I think there is definitely a risk that it could be cold and snowy over the few days you are in Andorra. This evening the ECM model is tracking the very cold air further south than previously modelle. It's only one run but highlights that forecasts are still changing at the 7 to 10 day range. If ECM is correct, it could turn very cold in Andorra.

Good luck!

2

Hi,

 

Thanks for that.. We have made a decision to push it back a week until the 5th March in case it all goes the way of the pear and it's uber cold and uber snowy, not ideal for the look we want.. I may come back a little closer to the 5th for some updated charts if that's ok, thank you.

 

[dubmuffin]

Hi Malcolm, I can't push back my week in Andorra and, sad as I am to miss all the excitement in the UK, we are flying out Sunday, so I would be interested in seeing any updated charts. I've been trying to work out how far that Siberian cold will extend and whether I'll need extra thermal layers, or t-shirts for the slopes. Snow-Forecast has been showing snow showers and sunny spells for the end of this week, so it would be good to have a look at next week's predictions

Thanks

Claire

[Wizzobell]

2 hours ago, carinthian said:

We do get seasonal forecasts but not use to individual weeks like yours. I know they have plenty of depth and the runs are in fantastic condition.  You will just be fine at the end of March even if if gets a bit warm it still freezes at night and snow blowers come into operation. Obertauern as you know has one of the longest ski-ing seasons in the whole of the Alps . I will be staying at Hotel Schneider during the festival. Good luck with the weather and I am sure the snow will be good .

C 

Many thanks for this and keep up the good work!

[J10]

Not quite the Alps, but heavty snow expected for Slovenia and NW Croatia as above tweet.

[J10]

8 hours ago, dubmuffin said:

Hi Malcolm, I can't push back my week in Andorra and, sad as I am to miss all the excitement in the UK, we are flying out Sunday, so I would be interested in seeing any updated charts. I've been trying to work out how far that Siberian cold will extend and whether I'll need extra thermal layers, or t-shirts for the slopes. Snow-Forecast has been showing snow showers and sunny spells for the end of this week, so it would be good to have a look at next week's predictions

Thanks

Claire

The above chart shows the extent of the cold covering most of Europe, while the exact details remain very much outstanding, at this stage it looks colder than average over Andorra, but to a much lesser extent than elsewhere in Europe.

[Blessed Weather]

8 hours ago, dubmuffin said:

Hi Malcolm, I can't push back my week in Andorra and, sad as I am to miss all the excitement in the UK, we are flying out Sunday, so I would be interested in seeing any updated charts. I've been trying to work out how far that Siberian cold will extend and whether I'll need extra thermal layers, or t-shirts for the slopes. Snow-Forecast has been showing snow showers and sunny spells for the end of this week, so it would be good to have a look at next week's predictions

Thanks

Claire

Hi Clair. As @J10 has posted above, widespread cold across Europe, but at the mo Andorra escaping the worst. Whilst I don't think it will, there's always the possibility of that changing at this range so that Andorra sees the much colder air. So if it's possible for you to wait, could I do a few charts on Friday? By then the outlook for your week will be looking a little clearer. Btw, what resort are you going to?

Edited February 20, 2018 by Blessed Weather

[svalji]

Hi folks. Heading off to Chamonix on Friday for weekend (return late on Monday). Is the cold spell likely to have an impact in Chamonix? Are we likely to see any falling snow? Thanks so much!

[dubmuffin]

On 2/20/2018 at 19:54, Blessed Weather said:

Hi Clair. As @J10 has posted above, widespread cold across Europe, but at the mo Andorra escaping the worst. Whilst I don't think it will, there's always the possibility of that changing at this range so that Andorra sees the much colder air. So if it's possible for you to wait, could I do a few charts on Friday? By then the outlook for your week will be looking a little clearer. Btw, what resort are you going to?

Hi Malcolm, as you can imagine I have been watching next week's weather charts unfold with great interest and I would really appreciate you posting some charts come Friday, a more reliable timeframe for our week away. My limited knowledge at the moment is suggesting a couple of snowy days from midweek, and not such extreme cold. It would be interesting to look at your posted charts along with the usual snow-forecast predictions to see how they correlate. I'm used to looking for those magical -5 uppers, 528 dam line etc for the UK, but don't know whether the same applies to the mountains. Is it  the wiggles in the isobars (shortwaves?) that suggest instability and the possibility of precipitation - snow hopefully - but just at night of course?

[Blessed Weather]

On 2/20/2018 at 21:48, svalji said:

Hi folks. Heading off to Chamonix on Friday for weekend (return late on Monday). Is the cold spell likely to have an impact in Chamonix? Are we likely to see any falling snow? Thanks so much!

Hi svalji. The really bitter air that's moving in from the east doesn't arrive in Chamonix until Monday. You can see this from the snowforecast chart below - look at how the temps plummet. But the good news is that there's already reasonably cold air over the Alps, snow conditions are very good, and you will see moderate snowfall during your weekend (particularly on the mountain, although it might be a bit sleety at times in the town). Have a great weekend!

Mid-mountain 5-day forecast on 22nd

http://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Chamonix/6day/mid

10 hours ago, dubmuffin said:

Hi Malcolm, as you can imagine I have been watching next week's weather charts unfold with great interest and I would really appreciate you posting some charts come Friday, a more reliable timeframe for our week away. My limited knowledge at the moment is suggesting a couple of snowy days from midweek, and not such extreme cold. It would be interesting to look at your posted charts along with the usual snow-forecast predictions to see how they correlate. I'm used to looking for those magical -5 uppers, 528 dam line etc for the UK, but don't know whether the same applies to the mountains. Is it  the wiggles in the isobars (shortwaves?) that suggest instability and the possibility of precipitation - snow hopefully - but just at night of course?

Hi Clair. I was just about to post a reply last night and accidentally hit my keyboard and everything disappeared! So forgive me using the GFS 12z charts from last night as I'm off to work in a mo (although there doesn't appear to be any change to GFS forecasts for early next week).

I use the 500hPa charts to understand the big picture - what's the synoptic pattern (highs/lows) and how do the forecasts suggest these will change. So looking at next week's GFS chart for Tues 27th we can see the bitterly cold air mass from the east gets tantalisingly close to Andorra. Also note the Low Pressure moving off the Atlantic towards Spain.

Then I use the 850hPa charts and precipitation charts for more detail. The 850 isotherms give the temp at approx 1,500m, which is around the height of a lot of mountain ski resorts. So the -5C isotherm will mean approx -5C at 1,500m. So using the GFS higher res output for the 27th and 29th we can see the bitterly cold air to the NE of the Pyrenees, but by the 29th that has moved away north as the Low off Spain moves in with winds from a southerly point raising the 850 temps and precipitation also approaching.

850 temps 27th  29th

Precipitation approaching 27th

Whilst I do look for features (e.g. isobar kinks) when looking at the other charts, for real detail I switch to other (better) high res models as they come into range, e.g. Arpege goes out to 114 hours. You can find them listed to the left when viewing Meteociel charts. Click on the country of choice (in your case France or Spain will do).

I'll have another look on Friday as promised.

[svalji]

Thanks so much Malcolm!! Really appreciate your help

Edited February 22, 2018 by svalji

[Pipine]

Argh wondering how this is going to impact our week in La Plagne the first week of March.. pleased it’s going to be cold but worried we won’t even make it to the airport if there’s heavy snow forecast for next week.. we’ve got a whole day on Friday 2nd to make it to gatwick before the flight at 7am Saturday. Really hoping travel isn’t completely chaotic Friday.  I guess we won’t know that til much nearer the time, it’ll be a week of stressing over the forecasts for me! 

[ManiaMuse]

Off to Val Thorens for a week tomorrow.  Looks like it will be bitterly cold but hopefully not too snowy to cause transfer day chaos or whiteout conditions.

 

[Blessed Weather]

On 2/21/2018 at 20:31, dubmuffin said:

Hi Malcolm, as you can imagine I have been watching next week's weather charts unfold with great interest and I would really appreciate you posting some charts come Friday, a more reliable timeframe for our week away. My limited knowledge at the moment is suggesting a couple of snowy days from midweek, and not such extreme cold. It would be interesting to look at your posted charts along with the usual snow-forecast predictions to see how they correlate. I'm used to looking for those magical -5 uppers, 528 dam line etc for the UK, but don't know whether the same applies to the mountains. Is it  the wiggles in the isobars (shortwaves?) that suggest instability and the possibility of precipitation - snow hopefully - but just at night of course?

Hi Clair. My Friday look at Andorra for next week, as promised.

The headlines are a cold start to your week as the bitter air moving in from the north east brushes with Andorra. This gets pushed away north as the Low Pressure just off Spain sees the wind flow turn to a southerly direction and as a band of precipitation moves north. This gives snow during Wednesday before turning to rain Thursday below approx 2,000m. Friday & Saturday looking cooler with freezing level down to around 1,500m and mainly dry.

Some charts. First the GFS and ECM 500hPa charts for Tues 27th in agreement with the cold air brushing Andorra.

The 500hPa charts again in agreement show the cold air retreating north as the Low exerts its influence.

Zooming in using GFS, the 850hPa, freezing level and precipitation charts for Tues 27th show it very cold with a few snow showers around.

By Weds the band of precipitation has moved in falling as snow by day, maybe turning to rain during the evening:

By Thurs the 850hPa, freezing level and precipitation charts show it milder with the 850 air at +4C and freezing level around 2,000m.

Whatever the weather I hope you have a great holiday. Try and post some pics!

[J10]

Latest Blog now out - https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/8757-brutal-cold-for-the-alps-from-the-east-next-week

Bitterly cold over the Alps (and Pyrenees)

[dubmuffin]

Hi Malcolm, thank you for taking the time to post the charts, it looks like we are in for quite a mixed week. I'm obviously rather horrified by the prospect of rain at 2000m - I had one afternoon skiing in the rain in Courcheval last year and it wasn't pleasant - will head high on Thursday if things are still looking wet, or go sightseeing instead. I presume that low is the one that might bring a blizzard (or warmer air) to the south here on Friday? However I am a little bit glad that we didn't choose the French or Austrian Alps for this week as the cold there looks quite incredible. I'll also be a little sad to miss all the excitement in the UK, I could have skied to work!

Weird that I hadn't really considered that the 850 charts would be the "ground" temp at altitude. 

[danbailey80]

On 23 February 2018 at 16:08, J10 said:

Latest Blog now out - https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/8757-brutal-cold-for-the-alps-from-the-east-next-week

Bitterly cold over the Alps (and Pyrenees)

Thanks Julian. I'm usually following your blogs about Glastonbury but am now going skiing in the easter holidays in Courchevel area. Are these updates once a week? Is this the best place to be reading? Thanks

[J10]

On 27/02/2018 at 08:33, danbailey80 said:

Thanks Julian. I'm usually following your blogs about Glastonbury but am now going skiing in the easter holidays in Courchevel area. Are these updates once a week? Is this the best place to be reading? Thanks

These forecasts are once a week, and normally on a Friday, however this weeks forecast will be issued Sunday.

[J10]

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/8774-further-snow-this-week-but-becoming-restricted-to-higher-slopes

As above further snow this week. but as we move into March, the need for higher slopes becomes even more apparent.