November 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

[Lettucing Gutted]

1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

Fantastic stuff. Looks like the 1960's had a lot of cold November's. 

It would be great if we get onto the November list, at least proving that the century so far can get something right for us at the time of year it matters. 

Since you clearly enjoyed that, do we have any examples of Autumn's which saw September's and November's below the 1981-2010 average but had October at least 1C above. 

Thanks Summer Blizzard.  Interestingly, at least in the recorded part of the Little Ice Age, Octobers with CETs of at least 12C were almost unheard of.  The first on record was 1811.  However that autumns September and November were both slightly mild (13.7C and 7.7C respectively) so they don't the criterion of at least 1C below average.

Autumn 1831 had an October that was 12.7C.  The prior September was slightly mild at 13.7C whilst the following November was cold at 5.6C.  October 1831 remains the warmest on record to be followed by a sub 6C November.

 

Autumn 1921 had an October that was almost the first 13C at 12.8C.  The prior September was slightly mild at 14.1C whilst the following November was very cold at 4.6C.  October 1921 remains the warmest on record to be followed by a sub 5C November.

 

Autumn 1969 had an October that was the first 13C at 13C.  The prior September was slightly mild at 13.9C whilst the following November was cold at 5.4C.  October 1969 remains the warmest on record to be followed by a sub 6C November.

 

Edited November 9, 2017 by Lettucing Gutted

[Summer Sun]

8.3 to the 8th

0.3 above the 61 to 90 average

0.4 below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 10.9 to the 1st

[BornFromTheVoid]

Even though it seems cool, generally seasonal temperatures over the next week should see the CET in or around average by mid month (continuing a little below over the next few days, rising on the 14th and 15th to average).
The close to average days look like continuing, with the GFS forecasting the CET to remain within 0.5C of the 81-10 rolling average for the next 10 days.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 7.8C -1.7C below normal. Local forecast has the next seven days well below normal for the time of year. GFS disagrees so lets see what happens. Either way the first half of November will be well below normal. The second half will it be mild to cancel it out.

[Chris.R]

 9.4°C here which is +1.8°C above the end of month average. Don’t have a rolling average so make of that what you will. If anyone could tell me how to get hold of a rolling average then that would be great. :-) 

[Summer Sun]

8.3 to the 9th

0.3 above the 61 to 90 average

0.3 below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 10.9 to the 1st

[NorthYorksWeather]

6.6c here to the 9th, 1.4c below the 1981-2010 average.

 

[Chris.R]

 Still at 9.4°C +0.3 above the rolling average. :-)

[The PIT]

No change in Sunny Sheffield still at 7.8C -1.6C below normal.

[Roger J Smith]

Current 12z GFS looks set to stay around or above 8 C to mid-month then generally rather cold looking possibly sliding down through the 7s into the high or even mid 6 area by end of run. Not quite 2010 like but a vaguely similar evolution? 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 7.7C -1.5C below normal. A couple very cold days coming up which should give it a good battering then probably a slight rise before next weekend. Odds are increasing for a well below average month here possibly cold enough to offset the very mild October which would leave Autumn close to average and rather dry.  

[Summer Sun]

8.3 to the 10th

0.4 above the 61 to 90 average

0.3 below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 10.9 to the 1st

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 7.7C -1.4C below normal.  Should be a nice drop tomorrow. Tuesday and Wednesday should bump it up a bit.  GFS latest run not so cold while the ECM is much colder but a complete change from yesterday.

[Summer Sun]

8.3 to the 11th

0.4 above the 61 to 90 average

0.2 below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 10.9 to the 1st

[Chris.R]

 9.0°C now, bang on average. Should drop below tomorrow as we should be close to  an air frost tonight. 

[NorthYorksWeather]

6.3c here to the 11th, 1.6c below the 1981-2010 average.

One more drop tomorrow before a few rises midweek.

 

[BornFromTheVoid]

No CET updates from the MO today, but assuming yesterday finished around 6.0C, going by the 06z GFs we should stick in an around 8.0C (+/-0.3C) for the foreseeable future. Some chilly spells might drop it down to around 7.7C, while the milder days take it back above 8.0C. So a lot of day to day variability, but little change in the rolling CET value.

[Summer Sun]

Hadleys good run has come to an end by the looks of it so some others

Metcheck                 7.42c    + 0.50c

Netweather              8.1c  +1.2c

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 7.5C -1.5C below normal. Next few days very mild so a rise probably back to 7.8C. GFS beginning to lose interest in the cold so maybe swinging to a milder outlook in the next few days. Time will tell. After this weekend probably back to where we our now.

[Chris.R]

8.7°C here, 0.2°C below the 1981–2010 average. 

[Roger J Smith]

In 2017, how long has it been since the warmest month on record in each month of the year? 

Here's a graphically based answer to that ...

MONTH ___ INTERVAL SINCE WARMEST

Jan ____________________ 101 y

Feb ________________________________________________ 238 y

Mar ____________ 60 y

Apr _ 6 y

May _____________________________________ 184 y

Jun ____________________________________ 171 y

July __ 11 y

Aug ____ 22 y

Sep __ 11 y

Oct ___ 16 y

Nov _____ 23 y

Dec ..2 y

YEAR 3 y

What's interesting about that is, the average for the first half of the year is 127 years but for the second half just 14 years.

Meanwhile this is the comparable chart for coldest month, I know we just missed in December 2010. Since there are some ties, I show multiple entries for some months.

MONTH __ INTERVAL SINCE COLDEST

JAN ____________________________________________ 222 y

FEB ______________ 70 y

MAR _____________________________________________________________________ 343 y

APR ____________________________________ 180 y ______________________ 316 y

MAY ________________________________________________________________ 319 y

JUN _____________________________________________________________________ 342 y

JUL .________________________________________ 201 y

AUG _____________________ 105 y

SEP __________________________________________ 210 y _________________ 323 y 342,3 y

OCT _______________________________________________________ 277 y

NOV _______________________________________________ 235 y

DEC _________________________ 127 y

YEAR ______________________________________________________ 277 y

Thus it has been, on average, 219 years since the (most recent where tied) coldest month of each name.

Since Feb 1947 was the only remotely recent example, this is a list of the coldest ranked months since 1947. This includes all top twenty coldest months.

JAN __ 1963 was 5th coldest (1979 was 17th coldest).

FEB __ 1947 was coldest (since then 1986 was 5th coldest, 1963 7th coldest and 1956 8th coldest)

MAR __ 2013 was 14th coldest (1962 was tied 15th coldest)

APR __ 1986 was tied 18th coldest.

MAY __ 1996 was tied 13th coldest.

JUN __ 1972 was tied 2nd coldest. 1991 was 8th coldest. 1977 was tied 9th coldest, 1971 was tied 17th coldest.

JUL __ 1965 was tied 11th coldest. 1954 was tied 19th coldest.

AUG __ 1956 was tied 5th coldest. 1986 was tied 16th coldest.

SEP __ 1952 was 6th coldest. 1986 was tied 14th coldest. 

OCT __ 1974 and 1992 were tied with other years at 26th coldest.

NOV __ 1985 was tied 28th coldest.

DEC __ 2010 was 2nd coldest. 1981 was tied 8th coldest. 1950 was 20th coldest.

YEAR __ 1963 was tied 39th coldest. 

This means that on average, since 1947 the 11th coldest month of any name has been recorded. 

[The PIT]

Beginning to look like the 2nd half will be much milder than the first half as the GFS and UKMO head towards a mild outlook so the  7.5C here maybe the low point.

[NorthYorksWeather]

6.1c here to the 13th, 1.7c below the 1981-2010 average.

As PIT mentioned above, latest GFS suggesting current position may be monthly low point unless we can tap into some of that colder air to our North.

[Summer Sun]

7.9 to the 13th

0.2 above the 61 to 90 average

0.5 below the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 10.9 to the 1st

[BornFromTheVoid]

Currently 0.5C below the rolling average. If the 06z GFS comes off, we'll be about 0.3C above average by the 20th.