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Roger J Smith

November 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

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6.6 turning colder

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7.7C for me please.... seems to be a popular November CET following an October CET of 12C or above... 

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Slightly milder than average:

7.6C

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The models keep on screaming near-average conditions and I can't find consistent enough signals for much to the contrary, so a boring old 7.0*C is my guess for Nov 2017.

If it's going to be wide of the mark, let it be a positive error...

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Latest GFS looks just a little on the mild side, with the CET likely to be around 9.3C after the first week, or 0.6C above the 81-10 average.

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My guess will be 7.1

Working on a table of entries over in the other thread, so far 60 entries, and the median value is 7.0 C (so far).

Between 4.9 and 8.8, all values are claimed (you can choose any of them) except for these which remain unclaimed

8.7, 8.6, 8.4, 8.0, 5.8, 5.7, 5.5, 5.4, 5.2, 5.1, 5.0

Outside that range, 13.0, 4.1 and 2.1 are entered.

--- I will post a link to the table of on-time entries after midnight ---

 

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I’ll have 5.8°C then please. 

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Table of entries (on time portion) at this location:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=8

68 on time entries, median (consensus) 7.0 C. 

There is a bit of a bimodal distribution with peaks around 6.6 and 7.8 -- probably a response to the rather tricky balance evident in most recent model runs between surges of mild air between quite cold looking synoptics. I gave up trying and went with the 30-year average.

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