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November 2017 C.E.T. forecasts


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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

8.9°C here, bang on the 1981–2010 average. 

 Only one day below-average this month, will there be another? That is the question. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 7.8C -1.1C below normal.

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

Snowy Edmonton is at -11.5c to the 13th which is lots below normal

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

7.9 to the 14th

0.3 above the 61 to 90 average

0.4 below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current high this month 10.9 to the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Got yesterdays value wrong guess I'm getting old. Sunny Sheffield at 7.2C -1.6C  So far only 21% of rainfall carrying on from a dry October as well.

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

I put half of 15.4 as 7.6 the other day; My brain is going.

 Anyway: 9.0°C here, +0.2°C above the 1981–2010 average. 

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m

6.5c here to the 15th, 1.1c below the 1981-2010 average.

A few drops likely as we head into the weekend, then a big ? regards to next week.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

8.0 to the 15th

0.5 above the 61 to 90 average

0.2 below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current high this month 10.9 to the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

9.0°C here, 0.3°C above the 1981–2010 average. 

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Using the 06z for a brief look at the output swings and roundabouts, the currents GFS suggests dropping below the rolling average over the next few days, before a brief warm up and then a cooling towards months end

Date:    Min       Max      Mean    [Rolling CET (81-10 average)]

16th:     8.4C    11.8C  -   10.1C     [8.1C (8.1C)]
17th:     2.4C    7.8C    -    5.1C      [7.9C (8.0C)]
18th:     2.0C    7.8C    -    4.9C      [7.8C (7.9C)]
19th:     1.8C    7.4C    -    4.6C      [7.6C (7.9C)]
20th:     2.6C    11.4C   -   7.0C      [7.6C (7.8C)]
21st:     7.5C    12.1C   -   9.8C      [7.7C (7.7C)]
22nd:    8.2C    11.4C   -   9.8C      [7.8C (7.6C)]
23rd:     8.0C    13.0C  -   10.5C     [7.9C (7.5C)]
24th:     5.4C     6.0C   -     5.7C     [7.8C (7.4C)]
25th:     2.2C     6.2C   -     4.2C     [7.7C (7.4C)]
26th:     1.8C     6.0C   -    3.9C     [7.5C (7.3C)]
27th:     3.0C     6.0C   -    4.5C     [7.4C (7.3C)]
28th:     3.0C     6.8C   -    4.9C     [7.3C (7.1C)]
29th:     5.5C     8.5C   -    7.0C     [7.3C (7.1C)]
30th:     8.0C    15.0C  -  11.5C     [7.4C (7.1C)]

The section above in italics is for the low res section of the model run. A close to, but slightly above average finish seems likely, but at this stage, the value for the 30th could easily end up 1C either side of 7.4C

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield now at 7.4C -1.4C. Probably not cold enough over the weekend to make much of a change possibly slipping back to 7.2C then generally mild to average to the end of the month so could well end up average to well above average. Night times look mostly on the mild to very mild side which is where most of the damage will be.  Five days ago I would have said no chance.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Latest GFS sends it even milder certainly if it comes off going to end up well above normal. Looks like the lawn mower will need to come out with the temps shown.

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Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll

The futility of using longer range output for a stab at CET prediction....

meTz20171116_0000+26400.png

Just a week ago, this was a -1c to -3c negative anomaly .... now a complete change to 1-3c above normal for remaining weeks of November!

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

8.1 to the 16th

0.7 above the 61 to 90 average

Bang on the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current high this month 10.9 to the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Quite a change in the forecast over last few days, which a switch from cool northerlies to warm southerlies. The latest GFS would have the CET at 8.6C, or 1.3C above the rolling average, by the 26th, with record breaking mild conditions on the 23rd and 24th.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 7.5C -1.0C below normal.  After this weekend it's going rise like a rocket considering how warm it's going to be. A late Indian summer.

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Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)

sunny and crisp Edmonton is still at -11.5c to the 16th..still yet to record a temp above 0c this month.:santa-emoji:

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

7.9 to the 17th

0.6 above the 61 to 90 average

0.1 below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current high this month 10.9 to the 1st

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield down to 7.3C -1.1C below normal.

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m
  • Weather Preferences: Snow/Thunderstorms
  • Location: Nr Malton, North Yorkshire 53m

6.2c here to the 17th, 1.2c below the 1981-2010 average.

Couple more drops possible before rising early next week.

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

Up to 8.9°C here, 0.4°C above the 1981–2010 average. 

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