November 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

[Robbie Garrett]

Bit late, but 5.2*C

[Duncan McAlister]

7.4C for me please.

[Roger J Smith]

CET November 1981-2010 averages and 1772-2016 extremes

______________________________________________________

 

Date ____ CET mean __ CET cum ____ MAX _________ MIN

 

01 Nov ___ 9.5 ______ 9.5 ________ 13.5 (1894,1982) __1.5 (1836)
02 Nov ___ 9.0 ______ 9.2 ________ 14.3 (1821) ______ 0.5 (1880)
03 Nov ___ 9.0 ______ 9.2 ________ 15.0 (1996) ______ 1.9 (1820)
04 Nov ___ 8.5 ______ 9.0 ________ 14.2 (1946) ______ 0.8 (1845&1848)
05 Nov ___ 8.3 ______ 8.9 ________ 15.4 (1938) ______ 0.8 (1802)

06 Nov ___ 8.2 ______ 8.7 ________ 14.3 (2015) ______ 0.6 (1868) __ was 13.4 (1772)
07 Nov ___ 8.3 ______ 8.7 ________ 13.8 (2015) _____ -0.6 (1791) __ was 13.3 (1772)
08 Nov ___ 8.7 ______ 8.7 ________ 13.4 (1852) _____ -1.2 (1812)
09 Nov ___ 8.1 ______ 8.6 ________ 12.5 (1988) _____ -0.5 (1921)
10 Nov ___ 7.9 ______ 8.6 ________ 13.4 (1977) ______ 0.1 (1812) __ 13.3 (2015) almost

11 Nov ___ 8.3 ______ 8.5 ________ 13.9 (2015) ______ 0.3 (1828) __ was 13.0 (2005)
12 Nov ___ 8.2 ______ 8.5 ________ 13.8 (1938,1947)_ -1.4 (1919)
13 Nov ___ 7.2 ______ 8.4 ________ 14.6 (1938) _____ -1.1 (1862)
14 Nov ___ 6.8 ______ 8.3 ________ 13.4 (1938) _____ -1.1 (1925)
15 Nov ___ 6.8 ______ 8.2 ________ 13.5 (1821) _____ -2.1 (1965)

16 Nov ___ 6.8 ______ 8.1 ________ 13.4 (1997) _____ -2.9 (1901)
17 Nov ___ 6.4 ______ 8.0 ________ 13.1 (1997) _____ -2.0 (1841)
18 Nov ___ 6.7 ______ 7.9 ________ 12.2 (1978) _____ -1.6 (1887)
19 Nov ___ 6.4 ______ 7.9 ________ 12.7 (1994) _____ -2.1 (1815)
20 Nov ___ 6.2 ______ 7.8 ________ 12.8 (2009) _____ -1.2 (1829)

21 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.7 ________ 13.7 (1947) _____ -1.4 (1880)
22 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.6 ________ 14.4 (1947) _____ -2.3 (1773)
23 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.5 ________ 13.3 (1947) _____ -4.2 (1858)
24 Nov ___ 5.9 ______ 7.4 ________ 12.7 (1980) _____ -4.6 (1904)
25 Nov ___ 6.3 ______ 7.4 ________ 12.1 (1964) _____ -1.5 (1923)

26 Nov ___ 6.2 ______ 7.3 ________ 12.1 (1983) _____ -1.7 (1904)
27 Nov ___ 6.0 ______ 7.3 ________ 11.3 (1818) _____ -2.6 (1915)
28 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.2 ________ 12.0 (1828) _____ -4.0 (2010)
29 Nov ___ 5.5 ______ 7.2 ________ 12.2 (1818) _____ -2.6 (1801)
30 Nov ___ 5.8 ______ 7.1 ________ 12.4 (2001) _____ -1.7 (1973)

_________________________________________________________________

[NorthYorksWeather]

8.3c here to the 1st, 0.6c below the 1981-2010 average.

[Summer Sun]

10.9 to the 1st

1.8 above the 61 to 90 average

1.4 above the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

9.9 to the 2nd

0.9 above the 61 to 90 average

0.7 above the 81 to 10 average

[Summer Sun]

10.0 to the 3rd

1.2 above the 61 to 90 average

0.8 above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current high this month 10.9 to the 1st

[NorthYorksWeather]

8.2c here to the 3rd, 0.4c below the 1981-2010 average.

Few drops likely in the coming days with cold nights forecast.

[Roger J Smith]

Complete table of entries now posted, including three (one day) late. 

71 forecasts in total, 7.0 is the median (consensus). 

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=8

 

[Summer Sun]

9.9 to the 4th

1.5 above the 61 to 90 average

0.9 above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current high this month 10.9 to the 1st

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Working on the basis that the storm that battered Ireland on exact 30th anniversary of The Great Storm of 1987 occurred due to solar and lunar effects in a very similar set up and that I believe we are reversing then 6.5c. Plenty of air from northerly quadrant during second half, frosts fog and snow for favoured areas.

 

6.5C

 

BFTP

Edited November 5, 2017 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Summer Sun]

9.2 to the 5th

1.0 above the 61 to 90 average

0.3 above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current high this month 10.9 to the 1st

[NorthYorksWeather]

6.6c here to the 5th, 1.7c below the 1981-2010 average.

Quite a large difference between here and the CET zone vs the monthly mean, something we haven't seen much of so far this year.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 9.9C  +0.1C Above normal.

[cheeky_monkey]

Cold cold Edmonton is -12.9c yes thats minus 12.9c to the 5th ..that is 7c below normal 

[Summer Sun]

8.8 to the 6th

0.7 above the 61 to 90 average

0.1 above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current high this month 10.9 to the 1st

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 9.4C -0.3C below normal

[damianslaw]

CET looks set to continue to fall for the foreseeable, so by mid-month we should if the charts come off as currently shown, see us running average at best, even a little below perhaps.

[Summer Sun]

8.6 to the 7th

0.6 above the 61 to 90 average

0.1 above the 81 to 10 average

___________________________________

Current high this month 10.9 to the 1st

[NorthYorksWeather]

6.3c here to the 7th, 1.8c below the 1981-2010 average.

Slight rise likely by the weekend, however below average temps forecast again weekend onwards.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 8.1C  -1.5C below normal

[summer blizzard]

When were the last two November's (or any month indeed) that were 1C below average. 

[Lettucing Gutted]

Summer Blizzard, If you mean consecutively from year to year then here is a list for all months of the year that were at least 1C consecutively below average:-

January 1979 and 1980 (we had a close but no cigar in 2009 and 2010)

February 1985 and 1986 (this potentially could have been a 10 year run from 1978 to 1987 but this was broken up by milder Februarys)

March 1984 and 1985 (this was almost a 4 year run from 1984 to 1987)

April 1917 and 1918 (1919 just missed out on making this a 3 year run.  There have been some close but no cigars since in 1969 and 1970, and 1977 and 1978.  Even in the cooler 20th century consecutive near average or mild or even very mild Aprils were favoured over well below average Aprils)

May 1897 to 1899 (this 3 year run from 1897 to 1899 almost included 1900.  There was also close but no cigars since in 1906 and 1907, 1962 and 1963, 1967 and 1968, and 1983 and 1984.  As with April, consecutive well below average, at least 1C below the 1961-1990 average Mays have been very rare since 1900)

June 1971 and 1972 (there have been some close but no cigars since in 1977 and 1978, 1990 and 1991,  and 2012 and 2013)

July 1965 and 1966 (there have been some close but no cigars since in 1980 and 1981, and 2011 and 2012)

August 1985 and 1986 (this was almost a 4 year run from 1985 to 1988.  1992 and 1993 was a close but no cigar)

September 1922 and 1923 (there were close but no cigars since in 1927 and 1928, 1931 and 1932, 1962 and 1963, and 1993 and 1994)

October 1992 and 1993 (there was a close but no cigar in 2002 and 2003)

November 1936 and 1937 (there was a close but no cigar since in 1961 and 1962 and a 5 year close but no cigar from 1965 to 1969)

December 2008 to 2010 (even this feels a lifetime away now!)

Edited November 9, 2017 by Lettucing Gutted

[Chris.R]

2 hours ago, Lettucing Gutted said:

Summer Blizzard, If you mean consecutively from year to year then here is a list for all months of the year that were at least 1C consecutively below average:-

January 1979 and 1980 (we had a close but no cigar in 2009 and 2010)

February 1985 and 1986 (this potentially could have been a 10 year run from 1978 to 1987 but this was broken up by milder Februarys)

March 1984 and 1985 (this was almost a 4 year run from 1984 to 1987)

April 1917 and 1918 (1919 just missed out on making this a 3 year run.  There have been some close but no cigars since in 1969 and 1970, and 1977 and 1978.  Even in the cooler 20th century consecutive near average or mild or even very mild Aprils were favoured over well below average Aprils)

May 1897 to 1899 (this 3 year run from 1897 to 1899 almost included 1900.  There was also close but no cigars since in 1906 and 1907, 1962 and 1963, 1967 and 1968, and 1983 and 1984.  As with April, consecutive well below average, at least 1C below the 1961-1990 average Mays have been very rare since 1900)

June 1971 and 1972 (there have been some close but no cigars since in 1977 and 1978, 1990 and 1991,  and 2012 and 2013)

July 1965 and 1966 (there have been some close but no cigars since in 1980 and 1981, and 2011 and 2012)

August 1985 and 1986 (this was almost a 4 year run from 1985 to 1988.  1992 and 1993 was a close but no cigar)

September 1922 and 1923 (there were close but no cigars since in 1927 and 1928, 1931 and 1932, 1962 and 1963, and 1993 and 1994)

October 1992 and 1993 (there was a close but no cigar in 2002 and 2003)

November 1936 and 1937 (there was a close but no cigar since in 1961 and 1962 and a 5 year close but no cigar from 1965 to 1969)

December 2008 to 2010 (even this feels a lifetime away now!)

 I think you just broken the record for the most mentions of the word cigar in any post lol. Great stats though.  

[summer blizzard]

3 hours ago, Lettucing Gutted said:

Summer Blizzard, If you mean consecutively from year to year then here is a list for all months of the year that were at least 1C consecutively below average:-

January 1979 and 1980 (we had a close but no cigar in 2009 and 2010)

February 1985 and 1986 (this potentially could have been a 10 year run from 1978 to 1987 but this was broken up by milder Februarys)

March 1984 and 1985 (this was almost a 4 year run from 1984 to 1987)

April 1917 and 1918 (1919 just missed out on making this a 3 year run.  There have been some close but no cigars since in 1969 and 1970, and 1977 and 1978.  Even in the cooler 20th century consecutive near average or mild or even very mild Aprils were favoured over well below average Aprils)

May 1897 to 1899 (this 3 year run from 1897 to 1899 almost included 1900.  There was also close but no cigars since in 1906 and 1907, 1962 and 1963, 1967 and 1968, and 1983 and 1984.  As with April, consecutive well below average, at least 1C below the 1961-1990 average Mays have been very rare since 1900)

June 1971 and 1972 (there have been some close but no cigars since in 1977 and 1978, 1990 and 1991,  and 2012 and 2013)

July 1965 and 1966 (there have been some close but no cigars since in 1980 and 1981, and 2011 and 2012)

August 1985 and 1986 (this was almost a 4 year run from 1985 to 1988.  1992 and 1993 was a close but no cigar)

September 1922 and 1923 (there were close but no cigars since in 1927 and 1928, 1931 and 1932, 1962 and 1963, and 1993 and 1994)

October 1992 and 1993 (there was a close but no cigar in 2002 and 2003)

November 1936 and 1937 (there was a close but no cigar since in 1961 and 1962 and a 5 year close but no cigar from 1965 to 1969)

December 2008 to 2010 (even this feels a lifetime away now!)

Fantastic stuff. Looks like the 1960's had a lot of cold November's. 

It would be great if we get onto the November list, at least proving that the century so far can get something right for us at the time of year it matters. 

Since you clearly enjoyed that, do we have any examples of Autumn's which saw September's and November's below the 1981-2010 average but had October at least 1C above.