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November 2017 C.E.T. forecasts


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Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

7.7C for me please.... seems to be a popular November CET following an October CET of 12C or above... 

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Posted
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow and thunderstorms :)
  • Location: Newton Aycliffe, County Durham... 90m asl

7.2 please for me

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Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

The models keep on screaming near-average conditions and I can't find consistent enough signals for much to the contrary, so a boring old 7.0*C is my guess for Nov 2017.

If it's going to be wide of the mark, let it be a positive error...

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Posted
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, especially heavy snow.
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.

6.3c for me please.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

7.4C for me, thanks

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

Latest GFS looks just a little on the mild side, with the CET likely to be around 9.3C after the first week, or 0.6C above the 81-10 average.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

My guess will be 7.1

Working on a table of entries over in the other thread, so far 60 entries, and the median value is 7.0 C (so far).

Between 4.9 and 8.8, all values are claimed (you can choose any of them) except for these which remain unclaimed

8.7, 8.6, 8.4, 8.0, 5.8, 5.7, 5.5, 5.4, 5.2, 5.1, 5.0

Outside that range, 13.0, 4.1 and 2.1 are entered.

--- I will post a link to the table of on-time entries after midnight ---

 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

7.8c for me please...I can foresee after an average first week or so becoming milder.

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Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67

I’ll have 5.8°C then please. 

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Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft

6.9c turning darker

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Table of entries (on time portion) at this location:

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=8

68 on time entries, median (consensus) 7.0 C. 

There is a bit of a bimodal distribution with peaks around 6.6 and 7.8 -- probably a response to the rather tricky balance evident in most recent model runs between surges of mild air between quite cold looking synoptics. I gave up trying and went with the 30-year average.

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Posted
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Cool clear sunny weather all year.
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex

Totally forgot.

Like most last month very much out.

Lets go for 7.3c as it seems to be around normal with no surprises, famous last words...:)

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