Storm Brian - Weather discussion

[throwoff]

There is definitely a gust in the air around my neck of the woods. 

I have to say though, Brian? It's hardly got the literary clout that Orphelia did.

[Windchime72]

Storm Brian is gonna pack a punch, storm force winds for south and west coasts of Ireland, also a rain event too, with up to 50mm forecast.

[alexisj9]

Last nights unnamed storm was windier than i thought down here.

[BrickFielder]

OK so its not an ex hurricane and it will be weakening as it crosses England, so its just a bulk standard autumn storm. Except it has a warm core anomaly, which means it probably started its life in a similar region to Ophelia but as a failed tropical storm.

Quote from Estofex Forecast  (http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2017102106_201710192030_1_stormforecast.xml)

A gradually filling depression with a warm-core anomaly approaches Ireland during the night with a weakening gradient wind event along the S-periphery of the depression.

This makes me nervous about the forecast modelling and a warm core anomaly approaching from this direction could actually reach the UK. If we assume that the modelling is correct then it looks like sustained winds of 40mph gusting to 65 mph which is no big deal. However this system is not coming up from the south west but moving much more eastwards than north eastwards as it crosses the UK. It puts the strongest winds up the Seven Estuary and into the midlands. 65mph gusts into the Midlands is a different proposition to coastal areas. It should be OK but it is unusual for this time of year.

My biggest concern I think is the tide in the Severn which peaks at 13.5M at Bristol at around 9am which will be boosted by a half meter due to low pressure near by and topped up with a wind surge. A 14.5M tide in the Seven Estuary is around the point where we need to consider flooding risks for that area I believe.

In addition to this we should see some squally showers over the region at the same time which will be enhanced by dry air aloft. This increases the risk of strong downdrafts from these showers and increases wind gust potential under these showers. (See Estofex forecast for additional detail) (25ms downdraft + steady 40mph wind gives gusting from showers over 80mph).

The problem is I don't want to be a scaremonger and the risks from this storm on the face of it are not that severe. Even the risks from some of the concerns I have highlighted are low, so if you are a forecaster I would be watching very closely, but for the rest of us we can ponder unexpected  outcomes and risks. My opinion would be that the risk of severe disruption is low from Storm Brian, even if I cannot put to bed my niggling concerns.   

[NO LONGER POSTING]

51 minutes ago, BrickFielder said:

OK so its not an ex hurricane and it will be weakening as it crosses England, so its just a bulk standard autumn storm. Except it has a warm core anomaly, which means it probably started its life in a similar region to Ophelia but as a failed tropical storm.

Quote from Estofex Forecast  (http://www.estofex.org/cgi-bin/polygon/showforecast.cgi?text=yes&fcstfile=2017102106_201710192030_1_stormforecast.xml)

A gradually filling depression with a warm-core anomaly approaches Ireland during the night with a weakening gradient wind event along the S-periphery of the depression.

This makes me nervous about the forecast modelling and a warm core anomaly approaching from this direction could actually reach the UK. If we assume that the modelling is correct then it looks like sustained winds of 40mph gusting to 65 mph which is no big deal. However this system is not coming up from the south west but moving much more eastwards than north eastwards as it crosses the UK. It puts the strongest winds up the Seven Estuary and into the midlands. 65mph gusts into the Midlands is a different proposition to coastal areas. It should be OK but it is unusual for this time of year.

My biggest concern I think is the tide in the Severn which peaks at 13.5M at Bristol at around 9am which will be boosted by a half meter due to low pressure near by and topped up with a wind surge. A 14.5M tide in the Seven Estuary is around the point where we need to consider flooding risks for that area I believe.

In addition to this we should see some squally showers over the region at the same time which will be enhanced by dry air aloft. This increases the risk of strong downdrafts from these showers and increases wind gust potential under these showers. (See Estofex forecast for additional detail) (25ms downdraft + steady 40mph wind gives gusting from showers over 80mph).

The problem is I don't want to be a scaremonger and the risks from this storm on the face of it are not that severe. Even the risks from some of the concerns I have highlighted are low, so if you are a forecaster I would be watching very closely, but for the rest of us we can ponder unexpected  outcomes and risks. My opinion would be that the risk of severe disruption is low from Storm Brian, even if I cannot put to bed my niggling concerns.   

Yes have to the agree on the shower front. Any potent showers do have the potential to enhance winds massively, we have seen this before in my own back garden, bog standard windy day with 40mph gusts then a shower passed over with hail and winds recorded over 70mph and all my fence panels blew out around the garden! 

[Windchime72]

First rain bands moving into western Ireland. Pressure 994.7mb falling. Winds calm to moderate.

[CK1981]

Has anyone checked the position of Brian? The models vary slightly with their predicted paths, so was wondering which is closest at the moment.

Edited October 20, 2017 by CK1981

[Mapantz]

7 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

Has anyone checked the position of Brian? The models vary slightly with their predicted paths, so was wondering which is closest at the moment.

Personally, I don't think it matters too much at this stage. You're best bet is to look at the FAX charts.

[E4-Fatboy]

Is this storm likely to disrupt flights in the London area or is it tracking in a more N.Easterly direction reducing the effect on the eastern side of the country. I only ask, as it's half term and we have an early flight Saturday morning from Stanstead.

[tomp456]

Seems like "Brian" is your bog standard autumn type weather. 

The fake news like the Daily Mail and Express have been having field days over "Brian".

 

Roll on the -20c temps (daily express) and hurricanes (mail) for the winter. 

[Cakie]

Just heard on the radio that certain rail services will be imposing speed restrictions due to the weather this weekend. 

https://www.networkrail.co.uk/feeds/storm-brian-could-lead-to-travel-disruption-this-weekend/

[Fiona Robertson]

This might be deemed off topic, but I can't help but be concerned about this "anomalous warm core", especially its direction of travel. Is there a specific thread or subforum here for recording and discussing weather anomalies? If Brian keeps the anomalous warm core and doesn't undergo a transition to a cold core would that mean that the official designation would remain "tropical"?

[knightstorm87]

41 minutes ago, tomp456 said:

Seems like "Brian" is your bog standard autumn type weather. 

The fake news like the Daily Mail and Express have been having field days over "Brian".

 

Roll on the -20c temps (daily express) and hurricanes (mail) for the winter. 

Totally agree, the irresponsible scaremongering in the junk tabloid newspapers and social media platforms has been embarrassing. Naming the storm days before the Met Office thought it was worth doing so (although personally I'm surprised they've bothered to name it at all) although I understand it applies more to Ireland then England and Wales. If we are going to start naming weather systems every time one threatens to produce something remotely blustery then we really have become a pathetic and soft nation, the Americans must be laughing at some of our so-called storms and not just because of some the names we give them. Only about 2 or 3 storms max since the Met decided to start naming them have been worth doing so in my opinion, one of which was the comically named Doris earlier this year. Whatever you do don't fart cause the Daily Express will start going into hyper-bowl mode and printing headlines about Armageddon lol  Seriously the whole storm naming idea should be scraped in my opinion if people (including the so-called experts) are going to start using it every time we get a typical autumn low pressure system!

Edited October 20, 2017 by knightstorm87

[Daniel*]

 

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, E4-Fatboy said:

Is this storm likely to disrupt flights in the London area or is it tracking in a more N.Easterly direction reducing the effect on the eastern side of the country. I only ask, as it's half term and we have an early flight Saturday morning from Stanstead.

I'd say yes nothing too bad however you would expect some hairy landings glad I'm not flying. 

[Daniel*]

 

[Mokidugway]

Weather felt like something's going to happen on my drive to Manchester,fortunately I have another vehicle that hasn't been destroyed  

[Windchime72]

Been raining heavy since 12:00 midday, wind calm to moderate, pressure 988.7mb falling. Im in Galway Ireland.

Edited October 20, 2017 by Windchime72

[Windchime72]

41 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

 

Impressive satellite image.

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17 minutes ago, Windchime72 said:

Impressive satellite image.

Incredible, it's amazing how different a Atlantic storm looks on sat compared to a hurricane, okay the structure is similar to a degree but the sheer size difference.. Although size doesn't always equal more power.. 

 

[Windchime72]

7 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Incredible, it's amazing how different a Atlantic storm looks on sat compared to a hurricane, okay the structure is similar to a degree but the sheer size difference.. Although size doesn't always equal more power.. 

 

And equally a rain event too, its been lashing down here since midday. Warning out here for 2 inches of rain. A bit of flooding i suspect.

[knightstorm87]

6 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Incredible, it's amazing how different a Atlantic storm looks on sat compared to a hurricane, okay the structure is similar to a degree but the sheer size difference.. Although size doesn't always equal more power.. 

 

Hurricane sizes are variable, some are quite small with a narrow but powerful wind field (150 miles) like Hurricane Andrew's was but others are huge (400 - 500 miles across in diameter), I believe Irma was one such example. 

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20 minutes ago, knightstorm87 said:

Hurricane sizes are variable, some are quite small with a narrow but powerful wind field (150 miles) like Hurricane Andrew's was but others are huge (400 - 500 miles across in diameter), I believe Irma was one such example. 

True, although some do become monsters. Back to Brian, the first wave of rain is pretty potent, anyone had it pass through yet? The higher RES models have it having pretty gusty winds within it 

[coldfingers1]

1 hour ago, Windchime72 said:

Impressive satellite image.

Hmmn isn't it supposed to be slightly further North and East by now?

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/isobaric/1000hPa/orthographic=-11.96,52.08,1685

Please move Brian, you aren't wanted in Southern England! Seriously though, I hope it does move a little north-easterly soon as I still have apples and pears on my trees!

Edited October 20, 2017 by coldfingers1

[Snowyowl9]

3 hours ago, tomp456 said:

Seems like "Brian" is your bog standard autumn type weather. 

The fake news like the Daily Mail and Express have been having field days over "Brian".

 

Roll on the -20c temps (daily express) and hurricanes (mail) for the winter. 

Bog standard for November but not October,read Brickfielder`s post leaves are still on the trees more damage especially in squally prolonged showers.

And this low is along way south with very tightly packed isobars in the lastest fax severe gales.

Edited October 20, 2017 by Snowyowl9