Flu prospects this winter

[Gray-Wolf]

Well if we are to see any 'post holiday's spike' it will be around now so will not turn up in the figures until next Thurs updates?

This weeks thurs update might hint at numbers rising but I'd expect us to be hearing of any spike via NHS overloads before we get to next Thursday's update!

[Summer Sun]

Flu data now available

During week 02 (ending 14 January 2018), influenza activity continues to increase across several surveillance indicators although there are signs that some are stabilising.

GP consultation rate in week 2 increased to 53.1 per 100,000 in England, up from 37.3 per 100,000 in week 1

[Summer Sun]

@pkelso

Flu cases still on the increase last week but not as fast as previously - a third more suspected cases at GPs, but hospital admissions levelling off

[Summer Sun]

Quote

Flu presentations in general practice have risen 152.9% since the start of the year and 42% in a week according to the latest figures (up to 14 January) from the Royal College of GPs' Research and Surveillance Centre (RSC).

Based on the rates presenting to the RSC, an estimated 31,300 patients in England attended their GP practice with influenza-like-illness (ILI) between 8-14 January - a rise of over 9,000 on the previous week. This takes into account data collected from over 1.7m patients (1,701,482) – the RSC's biggest patient sample since the Centre started collecting data.

Broken down by region, the Midlands and East England, which includes Birmingham, Norwich and Nottingham, was worst affected where 57.9 patients per 100,000 population presented with ILI - an increase from 35.5 per 100,000 the previous week.

Next was North England, including Manchester, York and Newcastle, with 57.3 patients per 100,000 population presenting with ILI - up from 34.5. Followed by South England, which includes Bristol, Portsmouth and Canterbury, that saw a rise from 45.3 - 54.3 patients per 100,000 population presenting at their GP practice with ILI.

London rates showed an increase from 30.3 to 42.1 patients per 100,000 population presenting with ILI.

Rates of other common winter illnesses, which saw a sharp rise in last week's figures, largely levelled out, according to the latest weekly report:

 

http://www.rcgp.org.uk/news/2018/january/flu-rates-up-over-150-percent-since-start-of-2018-show-rcgp-figures.aspx

[Nick L]

51 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

http://www.rcgp.org.uk/news/2018/january/flu-rates-up-over-150-percent-since-start-of-2018-show-rcgp-figures.aspx

I do wonder how many people with flu-like symptoms really needed to seek medical attention.

[Summer Sun]

Just now, Nick L said:

I do wonder how many people with flu-like symptoms really needed to seek medical attention.

Media haven't helped (shock horror) those getting a runny nose or a sore throat instantly think it is 'Aussie flu' when cases of it are lower than Japanese flu

The chances of getting either are still low regardless of case numbers they only have to look back to the swine flu outbreak that was much more widespread

[Summer Sun]

Quote

 

Hospitals are also seeing "very high" rates of admissions, officials said. However, it appears the strain known as Aussie flu is not causing the most serious illnesses, according to the weekly report up to last Sunday from Public Health England Instead - of the four strains circulating - a B strain, which does not normally cause high rates of severe illness, is responsible for about half the hospital cases.

Prof Paul Cosford, of PHE, said while there was a lot of flu circulating it was "not an epidemic" - and there were signs the flu season may be beginning to peak as the rate of increase was slowing down. He also said that death rates seemed to be lower than they were in two of the last three winters.

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-42725152

 

[Summer Sun]

Weekly Flu data will be out this afternoon but early suggestions are it has now stabled reducing the fears of an epidemic

[Summer Sun]

Confirmation from PHE flu is starting to stabilise

The consultation rate has increased slightly for England rising to 54.1 per 100,000 to week ending 21st Jan compared to 53.1 per 100,000 week ending 14th Jan

Consultation rates for adults have decreased

Consultation rates for children have increased more so in the 5 to 14 age group

The overall trend for Influenza-like illness at GP's is decreasing

[Summer Sun]

Breakdown in England for influenza-like-illness

Quote

South region increased from 54.3 to 59.6 per 100,000 population
London increased from 42.1 to 44.9 per 100,000 population
North region decreased from 57.3 to 54.9 per 100,000 population
Midlands and East region decreased from 57.9 to 53.6 per 100,000 population

http://www.rcgp.org.uk/n...t-show-rcgp-figures.aspx

[Summer Sun]

The flu map shows the number of red areas continuing to reduce

Still early days but we may now have reached the peak

[Summer Sun]

On 1/27/2018 at 18:40, Summer Sun said:

The flu map shows the number of red areas continuing to reduce

Still early days but we may now have reached the peak

Quite a drop in reports since Saturday

[Summer Sun]

Flu peak potentially reached in England weekly data shows hospital/Intensive Care Unit admissions + GP consultations all down

GP consultation rate 52.1 per 100,000 in week 4 for England it was 54.1 per 100,000 in week 3

Overall trend for ILI is decreasing

[Delka]

Surely peaked by now, definitely has here because it doesn't have anyone else to get! The whole family and most of our local friends all went down with it over the course of about 2 weeks about a week ago including me

[reef]

Weirdly I don't know anyone at all who's had it! The last person I know to get flu was myself in June.

It must be happening in clusters.

[Nick L]

38 minutes ago, reef said:

Weirdly I don't know anyone at all who's had it! The last person I know to get flu was myself in June.

It must be happening in clusters.

A few at work had it, luckily looks as though I've escaped it. 

But again, from what I've heard about it, if you're able to get yourself to your GP then you probably just have a bloody cold. Those at work could barely crawl to the loo.

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, Nick L said:

A few at work had it, luckily looks as though I've escaped it. 

But again, from what I've heard about it, if you're able to get yourself to your GP then you probably just have a bloody cold. Those at work could barely crawl to the loo.

Last time I had Flu was at Xmas 2010. In three hours, I went from being perfectly fine to spending two whole days in bed...As you say, anyone who has the flu will never be able to go see their GP; those with a touch of the sniffles would be better off buying some aspirin, paracetamol or ibuprofen from the local Tesco...generic stuff only costs about 35p a packet!

[Bristawl Si]

9 minutes ago, Nick L said:

A few at work had it, luckily looks as though I've escaped it. 

But again, from what I've heard about it, if you're able to get yourself to your GP then you probably just have a bloody cold. Those at work could barely crawl to the loo.

Yes the normal over-reaction to what most would have....and that is a heavy cold.

My wife and i have had heavy colds for last 10 days - cant shrug 'em off but it aint flu. I had flu c15 years ago. Horrendous! Alright one minute, high temps, shivering, etc within 3 hours. Then dreadful chest cough for 10 weeks.

Most people going to GPs with so-say flu shouldnt even be there. Just sweat it out, take some paracetamol and you'll be over worst within a week. A few will develop severe breathing issues and the like....then it is time to refer to GP or hospital.

It always makes me laugh when a footie match comes on telly and commentator says, referring to a player, "He had flu 2 days ago but he has made it onto the pitch tonight".

Erm....if it was flu even a fit sportsman would NOT be able to play footie so soon after a bout of flu.

Edited February 1, 2018 by Bristle boy

[Nick L]

17 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Yes the normal over-reaction to what most would have....and that is a heavy cold.

My wife and i have had heavy colds for last 10 days - cant shrug 'em off but it aint flu. I had flu c15 years ago. Horrendous! Alright one minute, high temps, shivering, etc within 3 hours. Then dreadful chest cough for 10 weeks.

Most people going to GPs with so-say flu shouldnt even be there. Just sweat it out, take some paracetamol and you'll be over worst within a week. A few will develop severe breathing issues and the like....then it is time to refer to GP or hospital.

It always makes me laugh when a footie match comes on telly and commentator says, referring to a player, "He had flu 2 days ago but he has made it onto the pitch tonight".

Erm....if it was flu even a fit sportsman would NOT be able to play footie so soon after a bout of flu.

I'd never dream of wasting a GP's time and the resources of the NHS with going to the doctor for a cold. I mean, what do people expect them to do? A packet of paracetamol is about 30p for heaven's sake. 

Like you say, if you're developing severe symptoms or are in a particularly vulnerable risk group there's really no need to waste the time and resources of the NHS even with flu. I really wish they had figures for the number of people who actually needed to be there. 

[Nick L]

21 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Last time I had Flu was at Xmas 2010. In three hours, I went from being perfectly fine to spending two whole days in bed...As you say, anyone who has the flu will never be able to go see their GP; those with a touch of the sniffles would be better off buying some aspirin, paracetamol or ibuprofen from the local Tesco...generic stuff only costs about 35p a packet!

Just realised I've pretty much repeated your sentiments! 

[Summer Sun]

Latest flu data shows cases remain high but continue to fall

17% reduction in the GP consultation rate with flu-like illness

14% reduction in the flu hospitalisation rate

10% reduction in the flu intensive care admission

GP consultation rate for week 5 is down to 43.0 per 100,000 in England last weeks update to week 4 was 52.1 per 100,000

All data: https://www.gov.uk/government/latest?departments[]=public-health-england

[Summer Sun]

As with last week, cases remain high but are continuing to fall

21% reduction in the GP consultation rate with flu-like illness

9% reduction in the flu hospitalisation rate

7% reduction in the flu intensive care admission rate

GP consultation rate for week 6 down to 34.0 per 100,000 in England last weeks update to week 5 was 43.0 per 100,000

All data: https://www.gov.uk/gover...5D=public-health-england

[Snowyowl9]

Last time I had a sore throat minor virus it was from visiting a hospital.

Last time I had the flu was in 1990ish only had it once I think,I went out for a walk though.

[Essan]

Well I am currently suffering from super-mega-deadly-bird-pig-reverse-cold* .......   Much to the annoyance of my housemate!    It's so severe I have had to open a bottle of scotch

Last time I had flu was 1998



* normally I get a bad cough at the end of a cold, this one started with a severe cough and no other symptoms ......   thankfully the cough has now eased and the cold peaked.  Should be fine by the weekend  

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 hours ago, Essan said:

Well I am currently suffering from super-mega-deadly-bird-pig-reverse-cold* .......   Much to the annoyance of my housemate!    It's so severe I have had to open a bottle of scotch

Last time I had flu was 1998



* normally I get a bad cough at the end of a cold, this one started with a severe cough and no other symptoms ......   thankfully the cough has now eased and the cold peaked.  Should be fine by the weekend  

Yes, the cold doing the rounds this winter seems to start with a very sore back of throat then a bad chest, before making your nose run like the clappers. Like the usual cold but in reverse. I had it last week and felt rotten for a couple of days. Chest still a little bit phlegmy at times but most of it seems to have cleared.