Arctic Sea ice the refreeze 2017/18

[Midlands Ice Age]

On ‎26‎/‎02‎/‎2018 at 23:11, stewfox said:

I think your right GW the word 'record' as i have said before is so over used on such short time spans people do turn off

Record Antarctica sea ice levels one a year and a  few years later record lows. Record low arctic ice extent etc 

Maybe discussions on  'impact' should be the focus. Another 'record' for warmth so early on DMI 80N Arctic (records since 1958)

 

Yep Stew

I agree with you here..

It must be realised that these conditions are not unique.

Many times in the past (even the last 2000 years), have seen conditions in excess of those of today.

The current 'records' only refer to the last 50 years.

They are by no means 'records'. 

It all looses the point for the average person.

The same as when I told people last week about this weeks weather.

The reaction was 'I'll believe it when I see it, as the MO are always saying things, but they never are right'.

Is it simply that calling wolf too often as now having a detrimental affect?

MIA 

[Thundery wintry showers]

You could argue that the current level of global warmth, and Arctic warmth, aren't unprecedented as the globe and especially the Arctic were clearly much warmer than they are now prior to the start of the Quaternary ice age.  However, that's going back millions of years, and back to a time when humans weren't around.

The current cold spell across north-west Europe, while exceptional, clearly isn't unprecedented over the last 2000 years, but the level of warmth in the Arctic may well be.  See for example the following:

https://www.skepticalscience.com/arctic-was-warmer-in-1940.htm

The Arctic had a warm phase in the 1930s/40s which could largely be explained in terms of synoptic patterns and sea surface temperature anomalies, and the same was also true of the Arctic warming between 1970 and 2004, but since 2005 we seem to have headed into territory that has been unprecedented since before 1880.  We also have longer-term climate reconstructions which suggest that, though not completely impossible, it is somewhat unlikely that the Arctic was this warm at any point during the last 2000 years.  There was a Medieval Warm Period which may have been at least as warm as, if not warmer than, today in certain areas of the globe, but not the globe as a whole- see for example https://www.geo.umass.edu/climate/papers2/Mann2009.pdf

[Gray-Wolf]

You know full well the data shows forcings not EVER recorded before with both the increases of co2 over time and the rate of change of temps across the arctic.

Let us not forget , however conveniently, orbital forcing had been , and still are, set to cool the far north so the increases in temp across the region first had to overcome this  forcing before it could ever begin to bring about the wholesale destruction of the ice volume we have witnessed so far.

Folk will question just why , when the data/information is there and plain for all to see ,you seek to dissemble? 

We see every single cryospheric agency/expert expressing their horror at what we are witnessing yet you glibbly tell us it's all happened before.

We have seen the ice go before but only when forcings were such as to allow this to occur be it orbital forcing/orogenic episodes and associated rapid weathering/vegetation evolution etc. The only current forcing is for cooling apart from that which mankind has placed into the environment.

With NASA's leading orbital forcings expert happily putting back our next ice age by 2 23,000 yr cycles ( with the possibility that by the end this will be millions of years) talk of 'all happened before' pales.

EDIT: T.W.S. I'd agree that we had begun this warm up long before the post war dimming as the calving of the 'T' islands from ward hunt attest to.

The resumption, and acceleration, of the warming ( both reclaiming the 'pause' and new increases) has now seen Pacific Diatoms now in the N.Atlantic that are absent from the sediment records for tens of thousands of years but not in pre 1940's core sections? 

We may well have delayed warming for 40 years but the forcings were still up there and the incoming solar a near constant. The leap in pan evap rates , across the world , post 1980's would suggest that the energy that should have been reaching the surface had been 'intercepted'.

Of course we have seen a second phase of this with Asia rapid energy use acceleration so we still do not know just where global temps should be ( NASA , mid noughties ,had up 50% of possible warming being lost to 'dimming') but Chinas headlong dash to clean up it urban atmosphere seem to be showing impact and , obviously, we are not ever going back to the level of dimming seen over dimmed period 1 or dimmed period 2 so temps will continue to rapidly increase even if we stop pumping out CO2 tomorrow!

We have modelled ice volumes back to the 1900's and a better idea from the sub data in the late 50's

Of that we know we have lost over 70% of the late 50's volume by the 1990's  

We are now at the runt end and 1 good summer will send us ice free. The changes this will instantly instill both in the Arc tic ocean structure and our global circulation ( plus the impacts this drives on day to day weather) will be all that is needed to show we have not been here since a posible blip at the post ice age climate optimum but , again , much slower and without the loss of the large ice shelves we saw collapse in the 20th century.The vestiges of Ward hunt tell us exactly how long the sheet had been there and uncovered vegatation from retreated sections bring even better dates for their entombment.

Edited March 3, 2018 by reef
Removed opening line, stick to replying, not insulting

[knocker]

 

[Gray-Wolf]

According to the JAXA extent numbers the last 3 days ( to the 4th) has seen a drop of 70K??

We are already sailing close to max for the year so if these losses keep up we will have no hope of regaining the ice as spring begins to alter the situation.

Baffin has been high this year ( Nares didn't for an 'ice bridge' so basin ice has been flowing into Baffin uninterrupted plus the PV say near over it for swathes of winter keeping temps low?) But the current Nor'easter, and the ones in the forecast, will play merry heck with the ice edge leading to breakup of the ice and mixing of the waters below.

Between Baffin and Okhotsk we could see losses keeping any gains low and so may already have seen ice max on the 1st of march ( earlier than last year even!)

[knocker]

This article by Julienne Stroeve (Professor of Polar Observation and Modelling, University College London), may be of interest

North Pole surges above 0 degrees C three winters in a row

https://cpom.org.uk/north-pole-surges-0-degrees-c-three-winters-row/?platform=hootsuite

 

[Gray-Wolf]

https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3224.epdf?shared_access_token=_Sp9tm8C3gSr2EmgUgMP7NRgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0Nk-zVIn420LEvTImRafD2IjN4nrsfCTPuVwvNjQbbjNP15lhY6QNTkMg7BuAsxzdnyLkXgM39kM0Pv_Se5NdsShRYhBAiWZNLe9moe6RRRvAoizOL5_k4I7Tw7pmHsHK8%3D&utm_source=Daily+Carbon+Briefing&utm_campaign=d4f8d24c28-cb_daily&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_876aab4fd7-d4f8d24c28-303476449

And above is a look at a paper from back in 89' and the modelled predictions of the way we would witness Arctic amplification...... i wonder how many of the folk who once poured derision on the findings will now hold up their hands and appologise?

This is a new trend as we now begin to have the '30 years of observations' some 'faux sceptics' always seem to demand?

Of course, had we acted on the models 30 years ago, things would be nowhere as bad as they are positioned today?

[knocker]

 

[Gray-Wolf]

JAXA back after its Hols and would you believe it we passed March 1st whilst they were off!!! We are now 20K above that previous high of March 1st!

This said we must now be on the wind down to the seasons max?

[BornFromTheVoid]

I'd always caution against calling early maxima during the first half of March, especially when coverage is already among the lowest on record. Even with the Bering sea extent, there's still plenty of time left to form some extra thin ice coverage imo.

[Gray-Wolf]

52 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

I'd always caution against calling early maxima during the first half of March, especially when coverage is already among the lowest on record. Even with the Bering sea extent, there's still plenty of time left to form some extra thin ice coverage imo.

Indeed BFTV and with so much open water in the peripheries the 15% or above measures can also see the peripheral areas break up and float into these open waters and promote growth?

I think I'll just have a nap until April!

[Gray-Wolf]

JAXA saw a 57.5 K drop for yesterday?

f we see that behaviour continue over the next few days ( a lot of the recent 'growth' was just 'flow and grow' of existing ice breaking up and triggering 15+ in adjacent squares of the mask?) 

We can now see all of the peripheral ice on the NASA worldview portal so we can see the southern extremities of theses 'migrations' of peripheral ice hitting hostile waters and maleting.

Well we saw the 'flow' ,I suppose now we watch it 'go'???

As events , for all peripheral areas, it has only appeared to weaken the periphery of the main pack by 'relaxing' out into areas further south. The fragmentation may ice over behind but this is very late formed FY ice and will not last as the sun gains height/time in the sky and it melts leaving the edges of the main pack fragmented and ready to float off.

[cheeky_monkey]

How are things looking regarding volume of ice rather than extent?..i was reading somewhere recently that ice thickness has been increasing since 2008..due to cooler summer temperatures in the arctic over the last 10 years.

[Gray-Wolf]

I believe we're sat second lowest in the Piomas measures of volume? It has been another rotten winter for the ice . I just hope we have a kind summer for the ice that is there?

We saw a drop on JAXA for yesterday and it will take some climbing back to that level at this time of year ( and the yo-yo that is seasons end!)

If we see some more losses over the next few days we might be thinking about it being the start of the melt season?

[Gray-Wolf]

Another big drop on JAXA today? 72K lost on top of yesterday's 58K  so quite a hill to climb to see any further 'max' reached?

Let's wait until tomorrow and see if the losses continue?

 

[Gray-Wolf]

Another 48k lost on JAXA for yesterday?

That's over 170K the last 3 days! I'm thinking we have really hit max this time?

[Midlands Ice Age]

1 hour ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Another 48k lost on JAXA for yesterday?

That's over 170K the last 3 days! I'm thinking we have really hit max this time?

A watched pot GW...

The charts still show a lot of very cold freezing weather for the Central Arctic for next week, with the temps at their coldest in Barents, Kara and Laptev at 20C below the normal for this time of year.

This is the cold pool that could well upset our plans for Easter?

Bering does look 'on the edge', but the cold looks to want to hang on a bit longer in North West America.

However, I agree, that  this weekend may well see the 'proper' call of max ice being called.

Fairly normal date for ice to stop increasing over the last few years?.

MIA

Edited March 21, 2018 by Midlands Ice Age

[Gray-Wolf]

Since 07' I had held concerns about the return of the 'perfect melt storm' synoptic. As the years passed , and a cloudier basin emerged ,those fears allayed .now we find ourselves beyond the 10 to 20 years return period and slipping into low solar.

Our recent SSW event, and the blocking that followed, has refired my concerns about the return of the perfect melt storm which involves HP dominance in the basin over the melt season ( plus a LP craftily positioned to allow a steady export via Fram?).

The return of the sun to the basin has allowed the 'World View' sat images to show us the ice cover and also the lack of cloud we have been seeing on the Atlantic side of the basin this last 2 weeks as the northern blocking keeps skies there clear.

We look to be taking the second poorest pack into the coming melt season? Let's hope we are not at the start of a number of years of HP dominant basin over low solar

[Midlands Ice Age]

17 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Since 07' I had held concerns about the return of the 'perfect melt storm' synoptic. As the years passed , and a cloudier basin emerged ,those fears allayed .now we find ourselves beyond the 10 to 20 years return period and slipping into low solar.

Our recent SSW event, and the blocking that followed, has refired my concerns about the return of the perfect melt storm which involves HP dominance in the basin over the melt season ( plus a LP craftily positioned to allow a steady export via Fram?).

The return of the sun to the basin has allowed the 'World View' sat images to show us the ice cover and also the lack of cloud we have been seeing on the Atlantic side of the basin this last 2 weeks as the northern blocking keeps skies there clear.

We look to be taking the second poorest pack into the coming melt season? Let's hope we are not at the start of a number of years of HP dominant basin over low solar

So in other words....

 No one knows?

 MIA

[Gray-Wolf]

Is this just a wish to be seen to have the last word or do you have some insightful point to make here granpa?

Either the findings of autumn 07' hold true or the basin has been so changed over the intervening years as to make it no longer true?

for the rest of us this is the first 'low solar' year for which we can observe the basin and the predominant pressures since the last 'low solar' period?

We've had eyes on the ice since 79' so we do have a number of low solar periods to look at including the two 'perfect melt storms' before 07' ( that were ten years apart) but this is the first time we have entered a low solar period with so little , and such thin, ice?

If we see the same as we did last time then we have the 'perfect melt storm' of 07' to face, the record volume drop of 2010 to face and then the record breaking across all measures 2012 to face.

Any one of these would leave us with very disrupted weathers heading into 2019 and that combined with the N Atlantic propensity for northern blocking over winter could spell trouble for NW Europe?

As it is by May 1st we will have plenty of dark water across both Ocean entrances into the basin and probably a gaping hole on the Beaufort side of the inner basin. The NW Passage deep channel, at the Alaskan end, has also seen a pretty big clean out over the bering export in late Feb so we should expect the late formed ice there to be gone by May.

All in all we will at least see as much energy soaked up by the basin as we did last year and minus the WACCy snowfall on our side we might even expect a more aggressive melt season so even more energy soaked up.

Then we have the adjacent land areas? 2010 saw the mega drought in Russia and record number/scale of wildfires across the tundra. 2012 saw near all of Greenland in melt and the waters in the McKenzie delta hit mediterranean temps!

With Yamal bursting in methane pockles (that grew in 2015 and 16') ,any extra warmth there will surely lead to a spate of eruptions? 

All in all it promises to be a very exciting melt season this time. It must surely hint at what we are to see over the coming low solar years or show us that ice melt has altered the way the basin operates these days?

We have seen what 'high solar' summers have appeared to bring us ( cool/cloudy) are we about to see a change?

 

Edited March 21, 2018 by Gray-Wolf

[Midlands Ice Age]

1 hour ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Is this just a wish to be seen to have the last word or do you have some insightful point to make here granpa?

Either the findings of autumn 07' hold true or the basin has been so changed over the intervening years as to make it no longer true?

for the rest of us this is the first 'low solar' year for which we can observe the basin and the predominant pressures since the last 'low solar' period?

We've had eyes on the ice since 79' so we do have a number of low solar periods to look at including the two 'perfect melt storms' before 07' ( that were ten years apart) but this is the first time we have entered a low solar period with so little , and such thin, ice?

If we see the same as we did last time then we have the 'perfect melt storm' of 07' to face, the record volume drop of 2010 to face and then the record breaking across all measures 2012 to face.

Any one of these would leave us with very disrupted weathers heading into 2019 and that combined with the N Atlantic propensity for northern blocking over winter could spell trouble for NW Europe?

As it is by May 1st we will have plenty of dark water across both Ocean entrances into the basin and probably a gaping hole on the Beaufort side of the inner basin. The NW Passage deep channel, at the Alaskan end, has also seen a pretty big clean out over the bering export in late Feb so we should expect the late formed ice there to be gone by May.

All in all we will at least see as much energy soaked up by the basin as we did last year and minus the WACCy snowfall on our side we might even expect a more aggressive melt season so even more energy soaked up.

Then we have the adjacent land areas? 2010 saw the mega drought in Russia and record number/scale of wildfires across the tundra. 2012 saw near all of Greenland in melt and the waters in the McKenzie delta hit mediterranean temps!

With Yamal bursting in methane pockles (that grew in 2015 and 16') ,any extra warmth there will surely lead to a spate of eruptions? 

All in all it promises to be a very exciting melt season this time. It must surely hint at what we are to see over the coming low solar years or show us that ice melt has altered the way the basin operates these days?

We have seen what 'high solar' summers have appeared to bring us ( cool/cloudy) are we about to see a change?

 

We both know that having the 'last word' means not a jot.   Don't we?

It is what happens that is the crucial thing. No amount of wishing or forecasting or speculating will change what actually happens?

MIA

Edited March 21, 2018 by Midlands Ice Age

[Geordiesnow]

Got to say the Pacific side of the Arctic is really looking very vulnable and the upcoming weather pattern and then potentially another but stronger ridge at the end of the month could well mean we will see a very unprecedented event of open water through the bering stright because sea ice in the bering sea is very thin and unusually it's very thin in the Bering stright. You only have too look at what happened during February to show just how thin that ice is and if indeed it does open up then that's a major head start to say the least but let's see if the ice can show some resilience. 

The other main area of interest or concern is the area north of Svalbard towards the pole, anytime we see southerly winds the ice starts to retreat rapidly and images seem to suggest that ice is also thin so one to watch for sure.

Going to be an interesting few weeks coming up which could have a major impact on the melt season.

[tablet]

On ‎26‎/‎02‎/‎2018 at 23:11, stewfox said:

I think your right GW the word 'record' as i have said before is so over used on such short time spans people do turn off

Record Antarctica sea ice levels one a year and a  few years later record lows. Record low arctic ice extent etc 

Maybe discussions on  'impact' should be the focus. Another 'record' for warmth so early on DMI 80N Arctic (records since 1958)

 

not really so unusual back in the 70's