Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Recommended Posts

Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
  • Replies 2.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

their armoured vehicles are being made ready-

I'm pretty sure the sky turning yellow is the met office trying out a new warning system after some backlash. 

Looking forward to my trip to #Ireland

Posted Images

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    @Man With Beard you could be correct sir :hi:

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Top of the scale,s Ireland:help:

    ECU4-96.GIF?12-0

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
    1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

    Top of the scale,s Ireland:help:

    ECU4-96.GIF?12-0

    Bringing parts of Wales the south west into the action

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    From that to that in 24 hours :nonono:

    C184A6A9-83E1-43F5-A7B4-8C66FB036FA4.thumb.gif.56fbeebff0f4c1467a261fb2a9009460.gif250EB1F5-7CDE-4981-9F0E-42BCCCC0EE82.thumb.gif.0c470e7bf4f8878433108fa87b18620e.gif

    looks odd 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Whitby north yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold , snow . Hot sunny
  • Location: Whitby north yorkshire
    3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

    Top of the scale,s Ireland:help:

    ECU4-96.GIF?12-0

    Boom :D wish I could be down there

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
    Just now, karlos1983 said:

    From that to that in 24 hours :nonono:

    C184A6A9-83E1-43F5-A7B4-8C66FB036FA4.thumb.gif.56fbeebff0f4c1467a261fb2a9009460.gif250EB1F5-7CDE-4981-9F0E-42BCCCC0EE82.thumb.gif.0c470e7bf4f8878433108fa87b18620e.gif

    looks odd 

    Not sure what track it went  THE remains of the low seem quite a bit north east  

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    Just now, weirpig said:

    Not sure what track it went  THE remains of the low seem quite a bit north east  

    Yeah it’s just heading into Norway, but just looks odd to me. But must be plausible 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

    From that to that in 24 hours :nonono:

    C184A6A9-83E1-43F5-A7B4-8C66FB036FA4.thumb.gif.56fbeebff0f4c1467a261fb2a9009460.gif250EB1F5-7CDE-4981-9F0E-42BCCCC0EE82.thumb.gif.0c470e7bf4f8878433108fa87b18620e.gif

    looks odd 

     

    1 minute ago, weirpig said:

    Not sure what track it went  THE remains of the low seem quite a bit north east  

    It's what happens in between what is what i wan't to know,shame the ECM timeframes are like this:(

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    Just now, Allseasons-si said:

     

    It's what happens in between what is what i wan't to know,shame the ECM timeframes are like this:(

    Very true, we will probably never know when it shifts West In the next run lol :wallbash:

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    South west Ireland is toast on ECM run. Looks like it may track across the borders. Pity ecm doesn't do shorter time periods.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    The ecm at 18 Monday has it central southern Ireland (near the coast) 978mb and at 00 986mb in the north Irish Sea. Strongest winds in the southern quadrant and in the Irish Sea

    Edited by knocker
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    4 minutes ago, knocker said:

    The ecm 18 has central southern Ireland 978mb and at 00 986mb in the north Irish Sea.

    What's the ECM 18 Knocker:cc_confused:

    are you refering to ens?

    Edit,i see you have edited:)

    Edited by Allseasons-si
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Location: Leeds

    So ECMWF tracks Ophelia across Dublin and then ENE into Southern Scotland with severe wind gusts of 60-70mph possible for Cumbria on the latest model run.  One thing to note also is that ECM12Z fills Ophelia out quite rapidly with the example being she is projected to have a central pressure of 974hpa just W of Waterford in the S of Ireland at around 18:00 on 16th October then 9 hours later at 03:00 on 17th October pressure increases to 990hpa (16hpa +/9hour) 1.7hpa +/ph.  Seems the Euro is struggling to handle the tropical nature of Ophelia's interaction with terrain.  Incidentally the track is S Ireland, Dublin, Southern Scotland and out into the N Sea with rapid cyclolysis.  I still think this solution is too far East but we'll see.  Worst affected areas for wind gusts on this run would be a line from Cork, Waterford to Dublin extending across the Irish Sea into Cumbria. 60-80mph gusts, mainly lower end of this range inland away from mountainous terrain.

    Edited by Thermohaline Conveyor
    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    So this ECM take on Ophelia sees it strong though not the strongest we have seen - it first hits S Ireland at 90mph gusts:

    https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2017101212/great-britain/gusts-3h-mph/20171016-1800z.html

    then tracks through Ireland and over Scotland, with gusts more like 70-80mph through the Irish Sea, perhaps over 90 on the tip of Anglesea (am I reading that right)?

    https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2017101212/great-britain/gusts-3h-mph/20171017-0000z.html

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    It will interesting too see how this plays out. The worst case scenario will be a good test of our stretched emergency services if does track the way ECM shows. Tomorrows runs will be very interesting .

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
    1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

    So this ECM take on Ophelia sees it strong though not the strongest we have seen - it first hits S Ireland at 90mph gusts:

    https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2017101212/great-britain/gusts-3h-mph/20171016-1800z.html

    then tracks through Ireland and over Scotland, with gusts more like 70-80mph through the Irish Sea, perhaps over 90 on the tip of Anglesea (am I reading that right)?

    https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2017101212/great-britain/gusts-3h-mph/20171017-0000z.html

     

    Yep 95 mph north west Wales  even 50-60 centre of England 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.

    I don't like this run at all, further away than it was before from my part...

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian

    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...