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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
    13 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

    Sorry but we are weather enthusiasts at the end of the day and the majority on here do wish for the 'extremes' like heat and thunderstorms in summer, cold and snow in winter and deep low's with severe gales in Autumn and we all know with all those scenarios that there is a risk to life and sadly at times there are some tragic consequences. However that should not stop us from wishing or looking out for any of those scenarios to come to fruition despite the risks and nor should there be any attempts of being guilty just because the majority wish for the 'extremes' which has the risk of tragic consequences.

    If you are inferring from that that I'm not a weather/meteorological enthusiast then you are totally wrong and I have probably been so a tad longer than the rest of you. And just for the record I was not attempting to make anyone feel guilty, I know from past experience that would be futile, but merely posting my opinion about something I feel quite strongly about .It is not always apparent in this forum but I assume I am allowed an opinion?

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    their armoured vehicles are being made ready-

    I'm pretty sure the sky turning yellow is the met office trying out a new warning system after some backlash. 

    Looking forward to my trip to #Ireland

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Location: Leeds

    I think the most likely track takes Ophelia just to the West of the West coast of Ireland although wobbles that take the centre circulation across inland Ireland are entirely feasible.  A majority of the ensembles would suggest a more Westerly bias though.  ECMWF operational is further East with the core circulation crossing much of inland Ireland however EPS generally back the westward trend along with NCEP and HWRF.  The CONUS issued by the official guidance of the NHC is a blended mean and is reasonable.  Still some minor shifts plausible in the next 48 hours.  Is there anyone on the S coast of Ireland on this forum?

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    48 minutes ago, radiohead said:

    arpegeuk-53-94-0_mcs2.png 

    That’s right bang on my portmagee punt! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Atlantic Ocean
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes
  • Location: Atlantic Ocean

    I like what I see here Earth , I have being using this as a tracker for some years now, I have tested this website with people from other countries such as Taiwan and the Philippines, the models do change but not as regular as I would like.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Amazing noaa still have it at hurricane status south west of Ireland. Going to be one to watch closely.

    143945_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
    Just now, The PIT said:

    Amazing noaa still have it at hurricane status south west of Ireland. Going to be one to watch closely.

    143945_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

    No they don't. They have hurricane strength winds, but it is post tropical. Black circles denote tropical systems, white circles post-tropical/extratropical.

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    Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.

    ECM:

    ECM1-120.GIF?12-12

    GEM:

    gem-0-108.png?12

    GFS:

    gfs-0-108.png?12

    UKMO (around the same time):

    Modele UKMO - Carte prévisionsModele UKMO - Carte prévisions

     

    GFS really is on its own in this selection of models, with the rest going for a more direct hit on the UK. Yes the winds are weaker with Ophelia further east, but still significant with 80mph+ looking likely.

    The eastward corrections are definitely more exciting.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

    Looks like I'll be in prime position here in Cork ( excluding gfs of course )

    Look forward to updating everyone IF it does happen

    Edited by January Snowstorm
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    Posted
  • Location: Atlantic Ocean
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes
  • Location: Atlantic Ocean
    1 minute ago, January Snowstorm said:

    Looks like I'll be in prime position here in Cork ( excluding gfs of course )

    Look forward to updating everyone IF it does happen

    Please do :) and be safe.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Location: Leeds
    1 minute ago, The PIT said:

    Amazing noaa still have it at hurricane status south west of Ireland. Going to be one to watch closely.

    143945_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

    Hurricane strength but post-tropical or extra-tropical in transition.  As you know the dynamics are different.  Note the black dots with white H when Ophelia is a true hurricane (latent heat fuelled through oceanic processes) where Ophelia has a white dot with black H meaning post tropical/extra tropical transitioning and some interaction with the jet-stream.  Although you could argue that judging by the latest models namely the ECMWF the concentric banding with the strongest winds around the inner centre the physical characteristics are not too dissimilar to a hurricane.  However convective processes usually fuelling the spiral bands associated with stronger coriolis will have been sheared by the jet and largely dissipated.  Fascinating to watch unfold, and to see just how close Ophelia will be to a true hurricane.  Analysis of the PPN distribution on radar will be worth noting as well as the modelling of the pressure gradient around the centre circulation.  I feel those in Ireland should be watching this one closely.

    Sadly for us in Leeds it largely looks like a no show unless some dramatic turn in the ensembles takes place.

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    Posted
  • Location: Whitby north yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold , snow . Hot sunny
  • Location: Whitby north yorkshire

    Quite unbelievable a storm of this magnitude is on the cusp of affecting Ireland and western U.K. . Look forward too seeing some footage :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    5 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

    ECM:

    ECM1-120.GIF?12-12

    GEM:

    gem-0-108.png?12

    GFS:

    gfs-0-108.png?12

    UKMO (around the same time):

    Modele UKMO - Carte prévisionsModele UKMO - Carte prévisions

     

    GFS really is on its own in this selection of models, with the rest going for a more direct hit on the UK. Yes the winds are weaker with Ophelia further east, but still significant with 80mph+ looking likely.

    The eastward corrections are definitely more exciting.

    ECM12z just churning out now. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
    Just now, karlos1983 said:

    ECM12z just churning out now. 

    Yep let's see if the eastward trend continues . 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
    10 minutes ago, Nick L said:

    No they don't. They have hurricane strength winds, but it is post tropical. Black circles denote tropical systems, white circles post-tropical/extratropical.

    Yup you're right post tropical but yesterday it was way further south yesterday that it was doing the transaction.

    Met seem to be going with GFS with it swinging to the west of ireland.

     I like this comment from noaa

    1. Ophelia is expected to transition to a hurricane-force post-
    tropical cyclone by Monday when it moves near Ireland and the
    United Kingdom.  While post-tropical Ophelia will likely bring some
    direct impacts from wind and heavy rain to portions of these areas,
    as well as dangerous marine conditions, given the forecast
    uncertainty at these time ranges it is too soon to determine the
    exact magnitude, timing and location of the impacts.  Residents in
    Ireland and the United Kingdom should monitor the progress of
    Ophelia for the next several days.  For more information on local
    impacts, residents of Ireland should refer to products issued by Met
    Eireann and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products
    issued by the Met Office.

     

    At the moment that's us boys and girls.

    Edited by The PIT
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    Posted
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
    19 minutes ago, knocker said:

    If you are inferring from that that I'm not a weather/meteorological enthusiast then you are totally wrong and I have probably been so a tad longer than the rest of you. And just for the record I was not attempting to make anyone feel guilty, I know from past experience that would be futile, but merely posting my opinion about something I feel quite strongly about .It is not always apparent in this forum but I assume I am allowed an opinion?

    Much as I love the weather ( and I'm fascinated by Ophelia because of her unusual track) I can recall all too clearly events of 30 years ago and am not desperately keen on experiencing them first hand. Nor am I terribly keen on my family in S. Ireland experiencing them first hand. I love to watch events like this from afar, but I've no desire to 'bring it on' when it comes to hurricane force winds. You're not alone!

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    Posted
  • Location: Livingston (ish)
  • Location: Livingston (ish)

    Just a hint to anyone with the equipment and in the right place. Set up your web cam and stream it live on the Tube of You! There's a fascination with watching powerful weather, wee subtle changes, watching the winds pick up etc. If anyone can manage this, please do!

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    2 minutes ago, Thermohaline Conveyor said:

    I have a feeling it will trend more West

    Steady steady as she goes 

    7DECCC01-91B9-401F-8925-6C0002B4B29E.thumb.gif.dc230d8d6632a0f17d76af63f6ba6545.gif

    next frames a biggy

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    Posted
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
    13 minutes ago, Nick L said:

    No they don't. They have hurricane strength winds, but it is post tropical. Black circles denote tropical systems, white circles post-tropical/extratropical.

    Should we change the thread title again??:rofl:

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    Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire

    Slight eastward shift on EC.

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    Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
    5 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

    Should we change the thread title again??:rofl:

    No because it is still a hurricane at this moment :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    Nice, it’s on for Ireland 

    B2DC6C39-D5D0-48E2-A187-B68D7BFC8D59.thumb.gif.f8c51fe4a17c30dfd4a29ce7d7eb1097.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Atlantic Ocean
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes
  • Location: Atlantic Ocean
    2 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

    Should we change the thread title again??:rofl:

    This all sounds like my past relationships , Ex Andrew, Ex ex Charly, but I do miss Danny.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    :shok:

    ECU1-96.GIF?12-0

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    Another budge east. Ireland direct hit ouch 

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