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Just now, benb said:

In layman's terms?

A lot of warm air barreling in from the south west in the lower regions of the atmosphere, temp increasing sharply from the surface to around 1500 feet. and possible thundery/lightening in the medium levels ahead of the storm as Jo mentioned last evening.

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their armoured vehicles are being made ready-

I'm pretty sure the sky turning yellow is the met office trying out a new warning system after some backlash. 

Looking forward to my trip to #Ireland

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20 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Morning all, well a crumb of comfort for both Ireland and Wales (but just a crumb), EURO4 and ARGEPE have both downgraded the windspeeds a tiny amount by a matter of a few miles per hour - won't make much difference, but at least it's not yet another an increase.

Particularly important for Wales, it is indeed tracking just a little to the west of the previously forecast track. Every tiny step moves the worst of the storm away from the Welsh coast. Even so, I am fairly confident that winds will exceed 80mph and even 90mph. 

That tweet from the Met Office - well I think it reveals it all, what a dreadful time to make such a mistake on social media. I've no doubt the Met is just like all work places - some great people and a few who shouldn't really be there. Nothing immoral about questioning their professionalism IMO - they more people do, the more they have to ensure they are.

Bit OTT - very easy to make a mistake especially when they are probably being bombarded with questions from people getting a little hysterical about the wording used in a weather warning.

Should we now be expecting the chief forecaster to also be working the Twitter account? 

Edited by Radiating Dendrite
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20 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Morning all, well a crumb of comfort for both Ireland and Wales (but just a crumb), EURO4 and ARGEPE have both downgraded the windspeeds a tiny amount by a matter of a few miles per hour - won't make much difference, but at least it's not yet another an increase.

Particularly important for Wales, it is indeed tracking just a little to the west of the previously forecast track. Every tiny step moves the worst of the storm away from the Welsh coast. Even so, I am fairly confident that winds will exceed 80mph and even 90mph. 

That tweet from the Met Office - well I think it reveals it all, what a dreadful time to make such a mistake on social media. I've no doubt the Met is just like all work places - some great people and a few who shouldn't really be there. Nothing immoral about questioning their professionalism IMO - they more people do, the more they have to ensure they are.

But going hand in hand with that who is going to keep an eye on the watchers? :shok:

Edited by knocker
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Took one look at the satellite imagery this morning and saw the warm core has broken up, but noticed the jet wrapping the low and thought singlet. Estofex mesoscale discussion suggests their forecasters came to the same conclusion.

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1 minute ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Bit OTT - very easy to make a mistake especially when they are probably being bombarded with question from people getting a little hysterical about the wording used in a weather warning.

I'll make this my last one so as not to derail the thread but it wasn't the only mistake they made - they were calling it ex-tropical when the NHC still had it as a hurricane an hour later. In some jobs it is unacceptable to make mistakes e.g. accounting, air-traffic control. I think severe weather warnings come under the same category, people in this country rely on them to assess their safety, even to a life or death situation. It's not a simple mistake in this context.

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Just setting off from Poole for my travel to west wales (work related) .

stay safe everyone. Good luck to the guys looking for some action, use Your heads and stay safe first and enjoy. Can’t wait to see your footage. 

Satellite lools to show a beer to NE slightly in last few frames. 

Edited by karlos1983
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3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I'll make this my last one so as not to derail the thread but it wasn't the only mistake they made - they were calling it ex-tropical when the NHC still had it as a hurricane an hour later. In some jobs it is unacceptable to make mistakes e.g. accounting, air-traffic control. I think severe weather warnings come under the same category, people in this country rely on them to assess their safety, even to a life or death situation. It's not a simple mistake in this context.

They are different forecasting agencies - who interpreted the data a little differently. 

Not sure what difference it makes whether it is still being classed as a Hurricane or post-tropical when it was still 500 miles from shore. It ended up following the progression that both agencies said it would and is now a post-tropical depression. 

Anyway that's all I have to say on the matter. 

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18 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

 

Should we now be expecting the chief forecaster to also be working the Twitter account? 

Why not, the US PRESIDENT runs the world with it.☺

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26 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I'll make this my last one so as not to derail the thread but it wasn't the only mistake they made - they were calling it ex-tropical when the NHC still had it as a hurricane an hour later. In some jobs it is unacceptable to make mistakes e.g. accounting, air-traffic control. I think severe weather warnings come under the same category, people in this country rely on them to assess their safety, even to a life or death situation. It's not a simple mistake in this context.

"a rose by any other name".....

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Somewhat eerie here today too, a clearly unstable atmosphere and warm which is very strange for this time of year. 

Ophelia on the other hand after a northward push, seems to be moving increasingly eastwards now.

Link below showing sustained hurricane force Cat 1 winds of 80mph+, gusts exceeding much higher. 

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=348.32,50.66,3000 

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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2 hours ago, Rob Walker said:

Looking at the very latest satellite images I wouldn't be at all surprised if it wobbled back east as it moves closer to land.
The models do seem to agree on a shift the centre westward along the coast (at least for now) but wouldn't quite go as far as to say any particular model run has called it yet, and not so sure myself seen plenty of last hours directional changes from systems of this intensity before!

 

7 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

Ophelia on the other hand after a northward push, seems to be moving increasingly eastwards now.


I refer to my earlier post! 

And yes totally agree on with your other comment is almost surreal how warm and muggy it is down south this morning!

Edited by Rob Walker
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3 minutes ago, Rob Walker said:

 


I refer to my earlier post! 

And yes totally agree on with your other comment is almost surreal how warm and muggy it is down south this morning!

 It’s like that over here too! Eerie, humid, and not a breath of wind.

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Talked to a few family members who seemingly not taking much notice of the warnings - reminds me of that scene from Devil wears prada - hurricane blowing outside which is dismissed as a breeze :) not funny, but evidently how many folk feel in the province. 

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