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Met Office EURO4 just updated - slightly west, wind intensity increased again. As I've mentioned before, all the grey is genuine Force 12. The area is getting closer to Ireland on every run.

17101609_1518.gif

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14 minutes ago, audiotech said:

Thanks that's interesting to know. That blob of convection is being very stubborn.

Just an area of persistent convergence. All our normal storms have a triple point (usually the wettest part of the storm) which is where the fronts meet. The difference here is that tropical systems have that convergence over the center.

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3 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

I was there too. It's played a big part in my dislike for people making 'Bring it on' 'can't wait!' statements. It's really not something to play down

I sometimes wonder if people equate "It wasn't a hurricane" with playing it down... because it wasn't a hurricane, and that's not in any way playing it down. UK weather can be really vicious... occasionally in unexpected places (which is a part of what increases the impact)

Edited by crimsone

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Stores and big name supermarkets have decided to shut their doors tomorrow over here :O

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2 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

E033500A-FC64-468B-BD2C-990596DD9AF1.thumb.jpeg.86da92a5b25e7bf079a6ec4c7195a9d9.jpeg

Wow cone now over the se uk too.

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7 minutes ago, pad199207 said:

Stores and big name supermarkets have decided to shut their doors tomorrow over here :O

Just saw that Dunnes Stores will be closed in both NI and ROI.

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4 minutes ago, crimsone said:

I sometimes wonder if people equate "It wasn't a hurricane" with playing it down... because it wasn't a hurricane, and that's not in any way playing it down. UK weather can be really vicious... occasionally in unexpected places (which is a part of what increases the impact)

This is also my worry with ROI in a few hours. The west of the country is used to vicious storms and most houses are built in the Lee and S/ SE facing which is straight into this. This is all uncharted terrritory and as such fascinating but equally potentially catastrophic given the expected time of landfall. My dad is mainly off grid so won't be up to date with latest weather updates. Maybe now he'll get bloody wifi

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Like the E4 one or two models take Ex-Hurricane Ophelia off the west coast of Ireland plausible looking at satellite imagery. Ireland is still battered however there’s no escaping this. 

E53B0272-7C04-4E04-A609-B1FE41C70AEC.thumb.jpeg.826b8362dc59fd1475dd691be3ecf7e4.jpeg

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Local radio station here "The Emergency Broadcast System is now enacted & Beat will be broadcasting the emergency Government broadcast through the night. Stay indoors"

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4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Like the E4 one or two models take Ex-Hurricane Ophelia off the west coast of Ireland plausible looking at satellite imagery. Ireland is still battered however there’s no escaping this. 

E53B0272-7C04-4E04-A609-B1FE41C70AEC.thumb.jpeg.826b8362dc59fd1475dd691be3ecf7e4.jpeg

Flippin' 'eck!

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2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Like the E4 one or two models take Ex-Hurricane Ophelia off the west coast of Ireland plausible looking at satellite imagery. Ireland is still battered however there’s no escaping this. 

E53B0272-7C04-4E04-A609-B1FE41C70AEC.thumb.jpeg.826b8362dc59fd1475dd691be3ecf7e4.jpeg

I said this earlier that she has tracked further west heading north,how fickle these little beast's are,just when you thought it was nailed on and a slight shift makes all the difference,maybe the met was right but i am not going to speak too soon.

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1 minute ago, pad199207 said:

Local radio station here "The Emergency Broadcast System is now enacted & Beat will be broadcasting the emergency Government broadcast through the night. Stay indoors"

The Republic of Ireland is really taking this all quite seriously, isn't it!

I would never expect to hear a message like that outside of a nuclear war, large scale invasion, or a zombie apocalypse here in the UK.

Just... wow.

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Very calm here. Big spots of rain coming down and temperature 17C. Calm before the storm. Very very interesting to see what station will see the highest gust. Stay safe folks.

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1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

I said this earlier that she has tracked further west heading north,how fickle these little beast's are,just when you thought it was nailed on and a slight shift makes all the difference,maybe the met was right but i am not going to speak too soon.

These models have very little experience dealing with this kind of scenario. NHC have the experience would favour the NHC out puts

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Looking at the lightning map, it would seem that there's quite a fierce little thunderstorm brewing in approximately the same area as the centre of the storm.  

Would anyone be able to suggest why this is occurring now and not sooner?  Is it to do with the storm passing over colder parts of the ocean as it tracks north?

 

 

 

map2.jpg

Edited by Wavey50

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There is a hook starting to develope on it's SW flank now,this is where the strongest winds will wrap around to the southern side of Ophelia.

 

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1 minute ago, pad199207 said:

Local radio station here "The Emergency Broadcast System is now enacted & Beat will be broadcasting the emergency Government broadcast through the night. Stay indoors"

How surreal to experience, I imagine in the event that was initiated here in London there would be a greater likelihood it would be coming from an impending nuclear warhead. :D 

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2 minutes ago, crimsone said:

The Republic of Ireland is really taking this all quite seriously, isn't it!

I would never expect to hear a message like that outside of a nuclear war, large scale invasion, or a zombie apocalypse here in the UK.

Just... wow.

Given that 2 dys ago it was almost literally '  Ah 'tis gonna be a it breezy. Ye'd best get the washing in'

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4 minutes ago, crimsone said:

Flippin' 'eck!

Flippin Eck indeed. And still showing less than the 115mph winds in '87. I sincerely hope for their sakes it doesn't get as bad as that 'normal UK weather'. ;)

;)

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30 minutes ago, weirpig said:

I think the aperge model has broken lol seems we are still under the influence of the storm till Saturday 

You are showing the chart which shows the strongest wind over the duration of the run. While gust charts show the worst to be expected, the mean, sustained wind looks pretty fierce too!

      tempresult_mcl6.gif        

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2 minutes ago, coldfingers1 said:

Flippin Eck indeed. And still showing less than the 115mph winds in '87. I sincerely hope for their sakes it doesn't get as bad as that 'normal UK weather'. ;)

;)

Not much difference is there most extreme gusts 180km/h = 111.84 mph

I can't really comment anything on that model never used it hopefully it's loony but not impossible TBH.

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