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Just now, JeffC said:

I think Hertfordshire would also merit a mention as would Bucks and Oxon...the rest is the provinces where the prolls and savages live...

Don't worry Jeff wouldn't swap our part of the world the SE :rofl:

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6 minutes ago, wrightc23 said:

In fairness Surrey and Berkshire as well. Essex less so.:D

computer glitch makes me repost what I said before...Ye Gods That's enough to send one senile if I wasn't before

Edited by JeffC
damned computers

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4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Heck no! 1 minute of coverage on 10pm BBC News you bet your bottom dollar if the SE was impacted they'd be all over it - probably from the alarmist Sun? However, in this scenario the typical hyperbole may not be far from the truth for some. 

 

Well certainly the every 30 minute weather forecast on BBCs rolling news has covered it extensively over the last two days!

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Looking at latest Sat images its still a Cat 1 hurricane imo 

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Just now, Ukwoody said:

Oh well, off to bed now. Bit like lampost watching for the snow this is,LOL. G'night all see what tomorrow brings

 

"Lamppost watching for the snow" Ha! I do that as well. Difficult now where I am cos I have no close lampposts, but it's possible... just.

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Can't believe we have a strong category 1 hurricane to the west of France, this hurricane season has been crazy. Seems to be further east then forecast?

I'm really worried about the potential for a sting jet and those in its path, I have my fingers crossed for everyone.

Is this something that could become more common in the future? Ophelia has been fuelled by almost record breakingly warm SSTs to our South-West. in a warming climate where we can expect this to continue and with more atmospheric circulation patterns favouring advection of tropical air it may well be. We need to wake up to the consequences of climate change. I know loads of people will kick off at me saying that but this year global climate has been crazy and its not even an El Nino year.

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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1 minute ago, Mokidugway said:

Don't worry Jeff wouldn't swap our part of the world the SE :rofl:

me either, I work internationally but get a nose bleed south or Northampton. sometimes Leicester!

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1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Can't believe we have a strong category 1 hurricane to the west of France, this hurricane season has been crazy. Seems to be further east then forecast?

I'm really worried about the potential for a sting jet and those in its path, I have my fingers crossed for everyone.

Is this something that could become more common in the future? Ophelia has been fuelled by almost record breakingly warm SSTs to our South-West. in a warming climate where we can expect this to continue and with more atmospheric circulation patterns favouring advection of tropical air it may well be. We need to wake up to the consequences of climate change. I know loads of people will kick off at me saying that but this year has been crazy and its not even an El Nino year.

You have to remember that warm seas aren't everything. Wind shear is the enemy for tropical systems, and the jet would tend to always rip any tropical system to shreds.

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Just now, Quicksilver1989 said:

Can't believe we have a strong category 1 hurricane to the west of France, this hurricane season has been crazy. Seems to be further east then forecast?

I'm really worried about the potential for a sting jet and those in its path, I have my fingers crossed for everyone.

Is this something that could become more common in the future? Ophelia has been fuelled by almost record breakingly warm SSTs to our South-West. in a warming climate where we can expect this to continue and with more atmospheric circulation patterns favouring advection of tropical air it may well be. We need to wake up to the consequences of climate change. I know loads of people will kick off at me saying that but this year has been crazy and its not even an El Nino year.

There's more than enough dry air for a stinger ,wouldn't be surprised at a 140 mph gust report somewhere.

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2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Can't believe we have a strong category 1 hurricane to the west of France, this hurricane season has been crazy. Seems to be further east then forecast?

I'm really worried about the potential for a sting jet and those in its path, I have my fingers crossed for everyone.

Is this something that could become more common in the future? Ophelia has been fuelled by almost record breakingly warm SSTs to our South-West. in a warming climate where we can expect this to continue and with more atmospheric circulation patterns favouring advection of tropical air it may well be. We need to wake up to the consequences of climate change. I know loads of people will kick off at me saying that but this year has been crazy and its not even an El Nino year.

Someone mentioned earlier that the still mushrooming cloud tops near the centre increased the chances of a sting jet. I can't rememeber who it was. Can anyone help here re sting jet possibilities?

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Even newspaper front pages are barely showing Ophelia on them.

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1 minute ago, Nick L said:

You have to remember that warm seas aren't everything. Wind shear is the enemy for tropical systems, and the jet would tend to always rip any tropical system to shreds.

Also that, as I seem to recall NHC discussing this time around, that for a heat engine to work, what matters is the differential between the sea and the atmosphere aloft. If the sea is a toad colder than would normally sustain a hurricane, but the atmosphere aloft still provides a sufficient temperature differential for strong and sustained convection, a hurricane can form (all other factors being favourable).

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Just now, Nick L said:

You have to remember that warm seas aren't everything. Wind shear is the enemy for tropical systems, and the jet would tend to always rip any tropical system to shreds.

Indeed I think all the ingredients fell into place for this to form unfortunately, a key factor has been the combination of cold upper atmosphere temperatures and warm ocean temperatures supported intense convection as it moved across the central North Atlantic.

A freak event or not? I personally don't think it will happen again for a long time but if someone said to me two weeks ago there would be a category 1 hurricane to the west of France I would have said no chance.

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4 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:

Someone mentioned earlier that the still mushrooming cloud tops near the centre increased the chances of a sting jet. I can't rememeber who it was. Can anyone help here re sting jet possibilities?

You're looking for convection in the hook area of the frontal region. Beyond that, I'm not au fait with how sting jets really work, I'm afraid.

Maybe one of the forecasters could blog about it at some point.... if it's relevant or when things die down and there's a lull.

 

Edited by crimsone

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Just now, pip22 said:

Even newspaper front pages are barely showing Ophelia on them.

Not even the Express? :shok:

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Fingers crossed nothing horrible happens to anyone tomorrow, good night.

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One for the archives...

BRAEU_0.gif

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Just now, crimsone said:

You're looking for convection in the hook area of the frontal region.

I'll be checking sat all night for a sting jet  ,''twas one of them that recked my garden in 2005 

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1 minute ago, crimsone said:

Also that, as I seem to recall NHC discussing this time around, that for a heat engine to work, what matters is the differential between the sea and the atmosphere aloft. If the sea is a toad colder than would normally sustain a hurricane, but the atmosphere aloft still provides a sufficient temperature differential for strong and sustained convection, a hurricane can form (all other factors being favourable).

Hmmm!! there is unstable air ahead of Ophelia pruducing sferics in the BOB currently,would this enviroment keep her going a bit longer?

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