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Here's my take: NHC have the expertise, and Met Office have jumped the gun...

... but that there's really not a hell of a lot in it. even the NHC discussion makes that clear - if it's still a hurricane, it's hanging on by a thread.

The other possibility is that the NHC discussion was written based on observations just prior to it completing transition. Even in this case, there's next to nothing in it.

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if the met office cant even get the status of the hurricane coming towards us, thats data given by the NHC....we all screwed with the warnings!

 

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Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172017
500 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2017

...OPHELIA STILL A HURRICANE BUT EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.6N 13.3W
ABOUT 840 MI...1355 KM NE OF THE AZORES
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM SSW OF MIZEN HEAD IRELAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 38 MPH...61 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann,
and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued
by the UK Met Office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Ophelia was
located near latitude 44.6 North, longitude 13.3 West. Ophelia is
moving toward the north-northeast near 38 mph (61 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Monday. On the
forecast track, the center of Ophelia will cross over Ireland on
Monday, however strong winds and rain will extend far from the
center.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Ophelia is expected to be a hurricane-force post-tropical
cyclone when it nears the coast of Ireland on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles
(405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gale-force winds are expected to begin across southern
Ireland by early Monday morning and gradually spread northward
across the country during the day. Hurricane-force winds are
expected to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday
afternoon. Strong winds will then spread inland across the
Ireland and parts of the UK into Monday night. Preparations to
protect lives and property should be nearing completion.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

RAINFALL: Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to
3 inches (50 mm to 75 mm) with isolated totals near 4 inches (100
mm) through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland. Across
eastern Ireland, rainfall amounts will average around 1 inch (25 mm)
or less.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center of the post-tropical cyclone makes landfall. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

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Surely the closest a fully tropical hurricane has got our shores since records began?

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11 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

oh #27  NHC says still a hurricane

Indeed the Met Office need to get their stuff together. Incredible stuff. 

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7 minutes ago, Jen Beachcomber said:

Hi coldfingers1 I live in Pembroke, At the most we will get 70+ mph wind gusts more so on the coast than in Pembroke Dock, Trees may come down and as I recall for the last time we had storms this intense we kept our power and were ok. By Tuesday we will at the most be "mopping up" I sympathise with your worry, I'm sure your folks will be fine and if they want to listen to whats going on to tune into Radio Pembrokeshire, it's brilliant for when a storm is coming in. It's going to get a bit blustery for a while tomorrow and the Cleddau Bridge will probably shut. I'm sure they will be safe. I certainly don't want to make light of the situation but I'm sure we'll all be ok, just inconvenienced. Me (the mad bugger that I am) am planning to go down Freshwest to see what the storm surge brings... Hugs to you x 

Jen, just for info.  Radio Pembs now broadcast from Cardiff, and their news is now produced and presented by a company in Leeds!  They are very tardy in responding to information.  

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2 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

The path has changed once again! More of a NE track closer to Easterly, takes the centre basically over my house. 

So , you can have a hurricane pass over your house under a yellow warning  :rofl:

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9 minutes ago, Jen Beachcomber said:

Hi coldfingers1 I live in Pembroke, At the most we will get 70+ mph wind gusts more so on the coast than in Pembroke Dock, Trees may come down and as I recall for the last time we had storms this intense we kept our power and were ok. By Tuesday we will at the most be "mopping up" I sympathise with your worry, I'm sure your folks will be fine and if they want to listen to whats going on to tune into Radio Pembrokeshire, it's brilliant for when a storm is coming in. It's going to get a bit blustery for a while tomorrow and the Cleddau Bridge will probably shut. I'm sure they will be safe. I certainly don't want to make light of the situation but I'm sure we'll all be ok, just inconvenienced. Me (the mad bugger that I am) am planning to go down Freshwest to see what the storm surge brings... Hugs to you x 

Thank you for the reassurance. Problem is that since that dreadful night in '87 (I had to move my baby into our bedroom as the winds looked likely to blow the chimney down into the room where her cot was!) I have always be a little scared of severe storm warnings. Wow that baby is 31 now! Why I am scared of warnings I don't know as the last forecast I heard that day was 'light winds'. If I had heard a severe weather warning maybe I wouldn't have been so scared now. That night I lost total trust in forecasters and sadly it sticks!

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NHC still keeping Ophelia a tropical cyclone in their 21Z update, located at 44.6N 13.3W. That’s definitely much further east  than predicted earlier. 

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It will be interesting to do a really good analysis on Ophelia after all is over. I think it could be seen to be a double transition, full tropical hurricane over 26°c+ water. Then into a rare "medicane" type hybrid drawing energy from the trough and in low shear/favourable environment for that type of tropical system and able to sustain strength over cooler waters. And lastly to a post/extra tropical.

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A message from me

i sincerely hope that people take heed of the warnings whether it be yellow,amber or red ,if the met o do not extend there warnings,take action anyway,this looks serious stuff

stay safe.

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13 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Guessing the sudden temperature rise here in the last 30 minutes is something to do with Ophelia? 

That happened in '87. Visited grandad at 5:00pm, freezing! Came out at 7:30pm, positively balmy! So I reckon your supposition is likely correct.

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2 minutes ago, SnowBear said:

It will be interesting to do a really good analysis on Ophelia after all is over. I think it could be seen to be a double transition, full tropical hurricane over 26°c+ water. Then into a rare "medicane" type hybrid drawing energy from the trough and in low shear/favourable environment for that type of tropical system and able to sustain strength over cooler waters. And lastly to a post/extra tropical.

Excellent analysis that :)

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Not even got a mention on the bbc 10pm news yet. #fakenews wink 

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Retailers being told to close all stores in Ireland tomorrow.

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So Met E warnings are threshold based whereas Met O is impact based. So that’s why NI will likely remain amber then. 

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I wonder if any delay (?) transitioning from a hurricane to post-tropical cyclone might actually reduce the size of the wind field. I'm no expert but a google search brings up some interesting results. Maybe there's still some significant doubt at the met-office regarding widespread damaging gusts.

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Once this storm hits the cold waters of the Irish Sea it will die very quickly , but will pack a very big punch to Ireland and western Britain...:girl_devil:

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29 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

It was a tweet @metoffice . The lightning is just elevated instability ahead of Ophelia

This is great, Jo. It's not often here on the Netweather boards that we see lightning in the UK and it's "just elevated instability" ahead of the main event. Usually, the lighting IS the main event :D (

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Amazes me that if a hurricane was only hours away from somewhere in the states our news would be showing people boarding up properties and roads full of cars trying to evacuate.

one is knocking our the door of our islands and it's considered far less important than the antics of some perv film producer and the expected rise in food prices when we leave the EU.

I just hope that we don't regret the low profile the authorities and media seem to be giving this event although in 36 hours we'll know.

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Just now, ANYWEATHER said:

Once this storm hits the cold waters of the Irish Sea it will die very quickly , but will pack a very big punch to Ireland and western Britain...:girl_devil:

Dissipation stage will be nasty , all that energy  :shok:

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7 minutes ago, Ukwoody said:

Jen, just for info.  Radio Pembs now broadcast from Cardiff, and their news is now produced and presented by a company in Leeds!  They are very tardy in responding to information.  

That's a bleeding shame, does no-one broadcast from the Narberth office anymore Ukwoody ?!  I used to love listening to the snow forecasts during 2010... "Hello this is Joyce here I just wanted to let you know we have about 1" in Charles Street" ... "Hello this is Sharon here I just wanted to let you know it's snowing on the A40 between Narberth and Caneston Bridge the cars are sliding down the hill"  "This is Jane here and there are cars struggling to get up the road between Pembroke and Pembroke Dock, it's chaos cos nobody can get up the hill, just wanted to let you know" it was brilliant and you knew just what was happening in the county...  It would be a real shame if this didn't happen anymore... 

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