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Posted
  • Location: Livingston (ish)
  • Location: Livingston (ish)
    1 minute ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

    There's always the option of staying over at the airport Terminal, not quite 5-star but at least there's shelter, toilets, and food.

    See??? You want to go, it's possibly a once in a lifetime chance, you'll regret it all your days if you don't go, you might never get another chance, this is special, this is epic, this is amazing!!! Am I helping? :rofl: 

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    their armoured vehicles are being made ready-

    I'm pretty sure the sky turning yellow is the met office trying out a new warning system after some backlash. 

    Looking forward to my trip to #Ireland

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: RACY, Extratropical Storm, Barocyclonic Leaf
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

    ex-Katria in 2011 was quite a rush, not as powerful as Ophelia is expected to be but with Katia the benefit was being able to step-outside and walk a few minutes to the local reservoir to feel the impact of the winds. It's definitely something you don't forget, especially how it's so 'tropical' given the majority of the time here in the Peaks when the wind blows it brings along with it the windchill factor.

    I'll have a better idea of what plan to execute by Saturday morning, if the trend takes Ophelia continually eastwards again then i'm likely to jump on the train to Holyhead and intercept the gales when they begin the NEly turn towards Stornoway.

    https://www.liveleak.com/view?i=8b3_1315837224

     

    Edited by SNOW_JOKE
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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    The Met Office are absolutely right to issue this warning. I checked all 50 ECM ensembles (as you do) and virtually all of them build this storm up to between 90mph and 125mph strength in proximity to Ireland, and perhaps 30% of the ensembles see some of the strongest winds extending up the Irish Sea. Interestingly another potential path is round the west of Ireland and then back across to western Scotland. This is like almost no other storm in a generation.

    Edited by Man With Beard
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    Posted
  • Location: Glasgow
  • Location: Glasgow
    Ophelia is expected to transition to a hurricane-force post-
    tropical cyclone by Monday when it moves near Ireland and the
    United Kingdom.  While post-tropical Ophelia will likely bring some
    direct impacts from wind and heavy rain to portions of these areas,
    as well as dangerous marine conditions, given the forecast
    uncertainty at these time ranges it is too soon to determine the
    exact magnitude, timing and location of the impacts.  Residents in
    Ireland and the United Kingdom should monitor the progress of
    Ophelia for the next several days.  For more information on local
    impacts, residents of Ireland should refer to products issued by Met
    Eireann and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products
    issued by the Met Office.
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    Posted
  • Location: Livingston (ish)
  • Location: Livingston (ish)
    1 minute ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

    ex-Katia in 2005 was quite a rush, not as powerful as Ophelia is expected to be but with Katia the benefit was being able to step-outside and walk a few minutes to the local reservoir to feel the impact of the winds. It's definitely something you don't forget, especially how it's so 'tropical' given the majority of the time here in the Peaks when the wind blows it brings along with it the windchill factor.

    I'll have a better idea of what plan to execute by Saturday morning, if the trend takes Ophelia continually eastwards again then i'm likely to jump on the train to Holyhead and intercept the gales when they begin the NEly turn towards Stornoway.

    So get organising the others, make tentative plans, load up the boot with Guinness... and GO! GO! GO! Ireland seems a safe bet.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire

    Looking at the storm as a hybrid between hurricane and extra tropical storm might give some different insights particularly looking at it as extra tropical. In this case we have a jet streak looping around the storm as it moves up from off the coast of Spain to France with divergence aloft ahead of the storm. This would suggest rapid cyclogenesis  (deepening of the low) as it approaches the UK.As the storm moves near to the coast of Ireland that jet streak swings across England. Strongest winds for a hurricane are near the eye whilst the strongest winds from a non tropical storm are under the jet stream. Looking at the ECMWF 850mb winds shows wind strengths in excess of 70 knots at 850MB (That is 90mph winds at 5000 feet) across much of the UK. Now ECMWF brings the low closer to the UK than some other models and winds at the surface will be a lot less than that, but it is worth bearing in mind. So we must be careful not to assign purely tropical attributes to this storm.Having said that Southern Ireland looks to have the brunt of this according to current modelling.

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    Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: RACY, Extratropical Storm, Barocyclonic Leaf
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

    pWdZ3HP.thumb.gif.8911c8a384e83f27ca0012373901aa4c.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland
  • Location: Ireland
    11 minutes ago, Andy92 said:
    Ophelia is expected to transition to a hurricane-force post-
    tropical cyclone by Monday when it moves near Ireland and the
    United Kingdom.  While post-tropical Ophelia will likely bring some
    direct impacts from wind and heavy rain to portions of these areas,
    as well as dangerous marine conditions, given the forecast
    uncertainty at these time ranges it is too soon to determine the
    exact magnitude, timing and location of the impacts.  Residents in
    Ireland and the United Kingdom should monitor the progress of
    Ophelia for the next several days.  For more information on local
    impacts, residents of Ireland should refer to products issued by Met
    Eireann and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products
    issued by the Met Office.

    Absolutely extraordinary to see this type of wording in a Forcecast Discussion from the NHC. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    17 minutes ago, Andy92 said:
    Ophelia is expected to transition to a hurricane-force post-
    tropical cyclone by Monday when it moves near Ireland and the
    United Kingdom.  While post-tropical Ophelia will likely bring some
    direct impacts from wind and heavy rain to portions of these areas,
    as well as dangerous marine conditions, given the forecast
    uncertainty at these time ranges it is too soon to determine the
    exact magnitude, timing and location of the impacts.  Residents in
    Ireland and the United Kingdom should monitor the progress of
    Ophelia for the next several days.  For more information on local
    impacts, residents of Ireland should refer to products issued by Met
    Eireann and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products
    issued by the Met Office.

    :shok:

    We have an earthquake hurricaine now:rofl:

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    Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: RACY, Extratropical Storm, Barocyclonic Leaf
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

    Hoping Ophelia somehow nudges eastwards just a little by 70mi by Sunday, if so then more of us in Wales and the NW would get some quite beefy gusts coming out from this. Affordability wise flights aren't much of an option unless I get a short-term loan (not ideal), and public transport will be unreliable getting back from Holyhead if the lines are blocked. It's times like this it's handy to have a driving license other than a provisional :sorry: although I am still looking at the options on the table in terms of getting somewhere more westwards for a intercept.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    5 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

    Hoping Ophelia somehow nudges eastwards just a little by 70mi by Sunday, if so then more of us in Wales and the NW would get some quite beefy gusts coming out from this. Affordability wise flights aren't much of an option unless I get a short-term loan (not ideal), and public transport will be unreliable getting back from Holyhead if the lines are blocked. It's times like this it's handy to have a driving license other than a provisional :sorry: although I am still looking at the options on the table in terms of getting somewhere more westwards for a intercept.

    Really? Am I the only one that wishes that Ophelia would simply sod-off into the North Atlantic and consequently die a death? Okay, I must be missing something?:D

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    11 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

    Hoping Ophelia somehow nudges eastwards just a little by 70mi by Sunday, if so then more of us in Wales and the NW would get some quite beefy gusts coming out from this. Affordability wise flights aren't much of an option unless I get a short-term loan (not ideal), and public transport will be unreliable getting back from Holyhead if the lines are blocked. It's times like this it's handy to have a driving license other than a provisional :sorry: although I am still looking at the options on the table in terms of getting somewhere more westwards for a intercept.

    Stubborn GFS keeps her way west of Ireland just as the previous run did :nonono:

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    Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: RACY, Extratropical Storm, Barocyclonic Leaf
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

    Netweather 7-day forecast has the Peaks for 20-22'c on Sunday and Monday, so i'll take that even if the winds stay further west. Considering there's a drop-off Tuesday when it's back to high's of just 9'c again.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    2 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

    Storms damage stuff , expensive stuff and insurance only goes so far so I hope it's a wet fart :D

    I don't care I want power and excitement! Bring me a hurricane!!! :drunk-emoji:

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    Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire

    Some seem to have forgotten this is a weather forum, bring on the full fury of mother nature I say.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    2 minutes ago, radiohead said:

    12Z UKMO is further east than the GFS with a track over Ireland and Scotland, though not as intense.

    Yes, the UKMO is a beauty! :air_kiss:

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    1 minute ago, Mokidugway said:

    Yep will destroy loads of hip Manchester apartments :rofl:

    Mine is east facing it should be fine! haha

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
    12 minutes ago, karyo said:

    I don't care I want power and excitement! Bring me a hurricane!!! :drunk-emoji:

    We don't get Hurricanes in the UK :wink::p

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
  • Location: Poole, Dorset 42m ASL
    5 minutes ago, radiohead said:

    12Z ICON has gusts up to 180 km/h over SW Ireland.

    iconeu_uk1-11-96-0_fwf1.png

     

    Well that's blow a few leprechauns off their toadstools, to be sure to be sure..

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