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2 minutes ago, cheese said:

People really love being drama queens, huh?

Lol.  Yup, I love it.

Anyway, being on the Bristol Channel coastline tomorrow with work committments, I'm intrigued at how high the wind gusts will be there, especially once the winds back WSW. 

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8 minutes ago, AWD said:

Whilst it is bad enough with the events & potential damage the storm is forecast to bring to Ireland, one can only ponder at the thought of the track being a few hundred miles further east.

The UK mainland (England especially) struggle to cope with mediocre weather events.  This would have brought the country down had the UK mainland had a direct hit.

Be careful what you wish for, more stormy weather is lurking later on this week with an impressive storm system looking to cross the UK from west to east in time for next weekend which might effect the south of England more!  Regarding the more imminent threat of Orphelia, I think the BBC forecasts are playing this down somewhat although to my understanding their forecasts of 70 to 80 mph gusts only apply to Northern Ireland and western coasts of England and Wales and not the Republic of Ireland which is predicted to take the brunt of the storm. 

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What kind of winds can we expect to get in the glasgow area from this storm? Im a tree surgeon and wondering if any trees will be uprooted if the winds are strong enough

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I am feeling a little bit jealous that we are not in the firing line on the south coast,not that I want to experience destruction or see others experience it.It is quite exciting to watch though.Unless of course there is a last minute change of direction!

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13 minutes ago, crimsone said:

Card or cash.

Wiseman's Bridge is perfectly accessible by vehicle. The car park is about a meter ASL though.

Personally, I'd be concerned about it being a bit risky though. You're braver than I if you go there.

59e372554d3b2_WisemansBridge.thumb.jpg.43f31f3f9f6f249da31a0dc02fdecc50.jpg59e372543b1a3_ScreenShot2017-10-15at10_58_19.thumb.png.276ec7ea2623677558678a18cbb5c079.png59e372568fc16_ScreenShot2017-10-15at10_27_23.thumb.png.c50c173e77155ef4e28a810fa34a4a4e.png59e37251bb463_heightscale.thumb.png.f38cd91f94ea36ad007273058e606824.png

That road gets covered in storm debris/ rocks from the beach/sea in a 'usual' storm!

Not sure if the fact it's a pretty small tide will make a difference in this case...

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Ophelia continues to weaken, now category 1 with max sustained winds of 90mph with central pressure of 973mb. Still pretty powerful if it made landfall though!

 

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2 minutes ago, glasgowsnow said:

What kind of winds can we expect to get in the glasgow area from this storm? Im a tree surgeon and wondering if any trees will be uprooted if the winds are strong enough

AFAICT the glasgow area and ayrshire seems to be progged to experience a fairly normal autumn gale however there does seem to still be alot of leaves on the trees so you may be busy.

 

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Just now, Nick F said:

Ophelia continues to weaken, now category 1 with max sustained winds of 90mph with central pressure of 973mb. Still pretty powerful if it made landfall though!

 

The higher end of the Category 1 status going by that information, note that it's 90 mph sustained winds the gusts will be significantly higher (probably in the 120 mph region), if the winds are anything like that strength when it makes landfall on Ireland expect carnage to break out!

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6 minutes ago, Insert Name Here said:

AFAICT the glasgow area and ayrshire seems to be progged to experience a fairly normal autumn gale however there does seem to still be alot of leaves on the trees so you may be busy.

Indeed if this was in December, the impacts would be much lighter.

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2 minutes ago, Insert Name Here said:

Id say thats a downgrade

That chart is for 50kt + winds.

 

Think you might be thinking of the Tropical wind chart?

145012.png

Edited by The Eagle

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Just now, The Eagle said:

That chart is for 50kt winds.

 

Think you might be thinking of the Tropical wind chart

145012.png

Ah yes I certainly was :)

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South Scotland on a yellow alert so not too much to worry about here. Feel sorry for folks who are going to get it bad. Hope they stay safe and well.

 

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2 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

That chart is for 50kt + winds.

 

Think you might be thinking of the Tropical wind chart?

145012.png

There’s a definite shift east from the last update then.

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3 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

I know that the storm is downgrading (now cat 1), but isn't it supposed to deepen as it becomes extratropical? 

Pressure is expecting to fall again yes and the windfield will expand but windspeeds will continue to drop going forward.

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5 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

I know that the storm is downgrading (now cat 1), but isn't it supposed to deepen as it becomes extratropical? 

Yes it is likely to re-intensify and expand in size meaning the wind field will be more widespread.

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Furthest north a major hurricane has existed this late in the year in the Atlantic since 1939 (35.9N)

Edited by bluearmy

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Getting in to the 24 hrs range.

Models coming out

ICON first 12z

icon-0-24.png?15-12

icon-0-27.png?15-12

Edited by The Eagle

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1 minute ago, Insert Name Here said:

what happened then?

 

No idea - I’m not as old as knocker :)

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36 minutes ago, crimsone said:

So, the BBC made their own graphic.

It's remarkably like the NHCs track forecast graphic, except much less useful. But it does tell us where Ireland, N. Ireland, and Scotland are, incase anybody needed to know.

Really can't believe an organisation like the BBC has fell for the Daily Express sensationalist type(and incorrect) headlines :rolleyes:

Its a case of now casting now, don't expect much shift eastwards and landfall is still likely over Ireland, its going to be an interesting 24 48 hours coming up, really would not rule out a 100mph gust over SE Ireland tomorrow lunchtime which would be remarkable.

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