Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen

Recommended Posts

Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
  • Replies 2.5k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

their armoured vehicles are being made ready-

I'm pretty sure the sky turning yellow is the met office trying out a new warning system after some backlash. 

Looking forward to my trip to #Ireland

Posted Images

Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand
    6 minutes ago, Jimmyh said:

    Can i ask a question. I dont think i have ever seen a track for a storm like this before. Is this due to it being an ex hurricane and it does what it likes. It originated mid atlantic and just seems to have carried on that path. How unusual is this type of storm basicalky going southwest to northwest

    The direction isn't really all that abnormal. They do it along the US coast all the time.

    What's abnormal about this one is that it formed so far to the north east of the atlantic. SSTs and the environment aloft don't usually support the formation of a major hurricane in this region. In fact, they've NEVER supported it, to the best of our knowledge.

    It doesn't do what it likes though - none of them ever do. They are steered by highs, jets and troughs, as well as (to a lesser degree) conservation of angular momentum.

    Edit: This link might help. Or might not. You decide. http://www.hurricanescience.org/science/science/hurricanemovement/

    Edited by crimsone
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone

     Met Eireann 

    Mean wind speeds in excess of 80 km/h and gusts in excess of 130km/h are expected, that really is something else not often you will hear mean wind-speeds excess of 80 km/h for are part of the world.

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Study: University of Reading - Home: Keynsham, Bristol 40m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Study: University of Reading - Home: Keynsham, Bristol 40m ASL

    Ophelia pretty much completely in view now on Sat24: https://en.sat24.com/HD/en/eu/visual

    Eye still evident?

    Edited by Ben Sainsbury
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Latest EURO4 deepens the low still further. The bit with clear hurricane force winds (the grey/white bit) has expanded somewhat. I also detect a slight move to the east, maybe 30 miles, but it's enough to put the east coast of Ireland in the orange which shows 70mph plus region (mean winds, gusts higher), and the extremities of Wales are incredibly close to that zone. Will there be a red warning for Dublin??

    17101612_1506.gif

    17101615_1506.gif

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Brighton
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Brighton
    2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    Latest EURO4 deepens the low still further. The bit with clear hurricane force winds (the grey/white bit) has expanded somewhat. I also detect a slight move to the east, maybe 30 miles, but it's enough to put the east coast of Ireland in the orange which shows 70mph plus region (mean winds, gusts higher), and the extremities of Wales are incredibly close to that zone. Will there be a red warning for Dublin??

    17101612_1506.gif

    17101615_1506.gif

    Ooooh creeping 'a little' further towards Brighton!! :rolleyes:

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: London City ,Cobham Surrey , Hale Gtr Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: London City ,Cobham Surrey , Hale Gtr Manchester
    6 minutes ago, booferking said:

     Met Eireann 

    Mean wind speeds in excess of 80 km/h and gusts in excess of 130km/h are expected, that really is something else not often you will hear mean wind-speeds excess of 80 km/h for are part of the world.

     

    80 km an hour means and 130 kmh gusts just sound like a fairly normal autumn storm to me in the lake district !?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: London City ,Cobham Surrey , Hale Gtr Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: London City ,Cobham Surrey , Hale Gtr Manchester
    2 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

    Lol ,on the fells maybe .

    gusts of 80mph are not that unusual in the lake district ??

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
    5 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

    80 km an hour means and 130 kmh gusts just sound like a fairly normal autumn storm to me in the lake district !?

    The Lake District isn't quite the same densely populated area as Ireland though, is it..

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Central Swansea
  • Location: Central Swansea

    Blimey, That sat image of the storm shows the eye still very evident and it looks like Ophelia is heading dead for the UK *gulp*  You would think there would be more warnings on national tv by now...

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    3 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

    80 km an hour means and 130 kmh gusts just sound like a fairly normally autumn storm to me in the lake district !?

    Going by the EURO4, this is going to be wrong at least within 30 miles of wind facing coasts.

    I've followed the EURO4 for years, and even in the very worst storms, I've never seen its top scale being broken, not even in Feb 2014.

    For the affected regions, think the worst storm you can recall from this decade, add 10-20mph and you'll be close to the mark.

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: North of Falkirk
  • Weather Preferences: North Atlantic cyclogenesis
  • Location: North of Falkirk

    The National Emergency Co-ordination Group has warned that Hurricane Ophelia is the most powerful storm system to hit the country in 50 years as the number of counties subject to a red weather warning increased.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/hurricane-ophelia-strongest-storm-ireland-has-seen-in-50-years-1.3256472

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire

    Estofex forecast for those who have not seen it http://www.estofex.org/

    Couple of quotes.

          A surge of dry low-stratospheric air wraps cyclonically around the cyclone's center, probably ending the stage of a potential offshore sting jet event.

         Downdrafts may bring severe wind gusts to the BL.

    What I am pondering is the forward speed of the storm which I roughly calculate to be 50mph (6 hours to traverse Ireland) which makes me question highest wind speeds of 80mph. Looking at forecast storm surge levels which range from about 1m to 2m then there seems to be some key risk areas like south Wales, but particularly the Scottish borders down to Liverpool (in addition to Ireland). What does concern me is that the jet stream pattern showing up on satellite images is deviating slightly from forecast (jet to the east of the storm is weaker than expected and the trough to the west a little sharper). Maybe a few twists and turns still to play out.

    • Like 8
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Coastal Northumberland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, heatwaves and anything extreme
  • Location: Coastal Northumberland

    The eye is still there on sat24 radar updated only 15 mins ago.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Central Swansea
  • Location: Central Swansea

    In Swansea we are used to rain and wind but 70-80 mph winds will be some else entirely!!  I've been out today and barely anyone knows whats about to hit us and there is nothing on TV or the web that indicates how bad it is going to get.  I know that they don't want to create a panic but people need to prepare and being a Sunday the major stores close in an hour.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
    4 minutes ago, BrickFielder said:

    Estofex forecast for those who have not seen it http://www.estofex.org/

    Couple of quotes.

          A surge of dry low-stratospheric air wraps cyclonically around the cyclone's center, probably ending the stage of a potential offshore sting jet event.

         Downdrafts may bring severe wind gusts to the BL.

    What I am pondering is the forward speed of the storm which I roughly calculate to be 50mph (6 hours to traverse Ireland) which makes me question highest wind speeds of 80mph. Looking at forecast storm surge levels which range from about 1m to 2m then there seems to be some key risk areas like south Wales, but particularly the Scottish borders down to Liverpool (in addition to Ireland). What does concern me is that the jet stream pattern showing up on satellite images is deviating slightly from forecast (jet to the east of the storm is weaker than expected and the trough to the west a little sharper). Maybe a few twists and turns still to play out.

    i've been watching the satellite images carefully for several hours and to me, it seems as if the track is veering slightly east of the forecast. it does appear to be making 'the turn' now but it will have to sharpen its turn to keep in line with the NHC forecast. it wouldn't surprise me if this storm went straight up the irish sea, bringing cornwall and more of wales into the firing line. i could be (well, most likely) wrong but we'll see...

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand

    A yachting friend of mine has just posted a comment with a portion of the shipping forecast on my facebook. It's a pretty rare one to hear, and it goes like this...

     

    Quote

    Lundy, Fastnet, Irish Sea
    South backing southeast for a time 5 to 7, increasing severe gale 9 to violent storm 11 later, occasionally hurricane force 12 in Fastnet.
    Moderate, becoming high or very high later, occasionally phenomenal in Fastnet. Rain later. Moderate or good, becoming poor later.

     

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: RACY, Extratropical Storm, Barocyclonic Leaf
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

    Given this time of year you'd be expecting a icy-cold windchill factor associated with regular-Atlantic lows, these gales however will be extratropical in nature and feeling more like being face-first into a hairdryer on low-settings.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand
    12 minutes ago, WelshWanderer said:

    In Swansea we are used to rain and wind but 70-80 mph winds will be some else entirely!!  I've been out today and barely anyone knows whats about to hit us and there is nothing on TV or the web that indicates how bad it is going to get.  I know that they don't want to create a panic but people need to prepare and being a Sunday the major stores close in an hour.

    It's a bad day to live atop Town Hill, that's for sure.

    On the plus side, the DVLA complex will take a battering.

    To be fair though, I doubt there's much to be prepared for most people in Swansea. I remember riding out a nasty storm in the Garw, just outside Bridgend in the 80s - you basically just sat there and hoped the chimney stayed on.

    Edited by crimsone
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand
    3 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

    Given this time of year you'd be expecting a icy-cold windchill factor associated with regular-Atlantic lows, these gales however will be extratropical in nature and feeling more like being face-first into a hairdryer on low-settings.

    The use of extratropical really bugs me (not you, specifically... just more generally). It means all things to everyone. I mean, all of our frontal systems are extratropical cyclones, most of which were not even initially tropical. Yet, in other uses, it refers to a no-longer-tropical cyclone.

    Dammit... one term for one thing! No wonder people find English hard to learn lol

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Create an account or sign in to comment

    You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

    Create an account

    Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

    Register a new account

    Sign in

    Already have an account? Sign in here.

    Sign In Now
    • Summer Solstice today, but not feeling so summery in the south

      Summer Solstice and the start of astronomical summer, but it won't feel particularly summery in the south under cloud and rain. Sunnier weather in the north will reach all areas on Tuesday, showery conditions spreading southeast later in the week Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      Week Ahead: A mixed bag as Atlantic based weather plays more of a role

      The upcoming week brings more of an Atlantic influence to the UK's weather, but with high pressure never too far away there will be some sunnier, drier spells in amongst the wetter, cloudier weather. Read the full update here

      Netweather forecasts
      Netweather forecasts
      Latest weather updates from Netweather

      UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

      UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2021-06-19 13:11:27 Valid: 19/06/2021 1200 20/06/2021 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - SAT 19TH JUNE 2021 Click here for the full forecast

      Nick F
      Nick F
      Latest weather updates from Netweather 1
    • Recently Browsing   0 members

      No registered users viewing this page.

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...