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their armoured vehicles are being made ready-

I'm pretty sure the sky turning yellow is the met office trying out a new warning system after some backlash. 

Looking forward to my trip to #Ireland

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    34 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

    Latest ECM Ensembles keeping it mostly to the West of Ireland too - I think chances are, we'll see it correct Westwards. With high pressure to our East, the models to like to underestimate the strength. We see this in winter all the time with Atlantic breakdowns.

    Ireland is going to be the place to be for this one, I think

    ENS.jpg

    If the westward shifts continue it will probably be just the Atlantic.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    1 hour ago, karyo said:

    If the westward shifts continue it will probably be just the Atlantic.

    As the Storm chasers call it "A fish storm" not Michael Fish either :lazy:

    Our old Foe "Euro High" just kills all our fun!   The sooner it can do one the better! Don't want to be seeing that come months end! :diablo:

    Edited by karlos1983
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    Posted
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
  • Location: Benson, Oxfordshire
    3 hours ago, Jo Farrow said:

    Express is surpassing itself ( probably annoyed at its Boy who cried wolf situation) 

    "Ophelia is barrelling towards the UK with winds of up to 5mph 

    The hurricane is forecasted to travel northeast across England and northern Ireland towards Scotland by 8am on Monday.

    It is currently barrelling east across the Atlantic Ocean... travelling at 3mph." Nicole Stinson

    Which superlative will they use Sunday into Monday when it does get a move on northwards? 5mph and 3mph, that line is repeated twice #quality

    Still waiting for this barbeque summer they 'predicted' earlier in the year :nea:

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    19 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

    As the Storm chasers call it "A fish storm" not Michael Fish either :lazy:

    Our old Foe "Euro High" just kills all our fun!   The sooner it can do one the better! Don't want to be seeing that come months end! :diablo:

    It makes me sick to be honest!

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    Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand
    33 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

    1201ophtweet.png

    This whole "We've decided to name storms to increase public awareness and reduce confusion" business was a great idea in theory... but someone dropped the ball when they failed to realise that the British tabloid press existed.

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    Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.

    The Met Office have issued a yellow warning for wind for Western parts of the UK.

    I find that really interesting considering it's forecast to stay pretty much out in the Atlantic. They mention the chance of 80mph gusts, so do they know something we don't?? 

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/mobile/warnings/uk

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
    16 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

    The Met Office have issued a yellow warning for wind for Western parts of the UK.

    I find that really interesting considering it's forecast to stay pretty much out in the Atlantic. They mention the chance of 80mph gusts, so do they know something we don't?? 

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/mobile/warnings/uk

    Every chance the system could be further Eastwards like the ECM is showing and in these situations with hurricanes, even the American prefers the ECM model over the GFS.

    Still too early though to be sure where it will end up but it looks like Northern Ireland and Western parts of Scotland are at risk with severe gales but the strength by the time it gets close to our shores could well change by then.

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    Still on course :shok:

    WTNT42 KNHC 120840
    TCDAT2
    
    Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number  13
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172017
    500 AM AST Thu Oct 12 2017
    
    Satellite imagery indicates that Ophelia continues to gradually
    become better organized, with the hurricane maintaining a
    well-defined eye and the cloud tops in the eyewall gradually
    cooling.  The various subjective and objective satellite intensity
    estimates range between 75-90 kt, and based on the previous trend of
    the intensity being near the lower end of the estimates, the initial
    intensity is kept at a possibly conservative 75 kt.
    
    The initial motion is 040/3.  Ophelia is currently in an area of
    light steering currents to the south of the mid-latitude
    westerlies.  The large-scale models forecast a deep-layer trough to
    amplify over the central and northeastern Atlantic during the
    forecast period, which should steer Ophelia northeastward or
    east-northeastward at an increasing forward speed for the next few
    days.  The track guidance has changed little since the last
    advisory, and the new forecast track, which leans toward the HFIP
    Corrected Consensus and the Florida State Superensemble, is an
    update of the previous forecast.
    
    Ophelia is forecast to remain in a light to moderate shear
    environment and over marginal sea surface temperatures for the next
    24-36 h, and the intensity forecast shows some strengthening during
    this time in agreement with the guidance.  After that, the hurricane
    is expected to move over cooler water.  As that happens, though,
    interaction with the above-mentioned westerly trough should help
    Ophelia keep its intensity.  Extratropical transition should begin
    by 72 h, with Ophelia likely to become a hurricane-force baroclinic
    low by 96 h.  The guidance is in good agreement that Ophelia should
    affect Ireland, northern Ireland and Great Britain between 96-120 h
    as a powerful extratropical low.
    
    Although the track guidance keeps the center offshore of the
    Azores, a tropical storm watch or warning could be needed for the
    eastern Azores on Thursday because of the forecasted increase in
    wind radii in the northwestern quadrant of the cyclone.
    
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  12/0900Z 30.3N  35.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
     12H  12/1800Z 30.7N  35.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
     24H  13/0600Z 31.3N  34.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
     36H  13/1800Z 32.2N  32.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
     48H  14/0600Z 33.7N  28.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
     72H  15/0600Z 38.5N  20.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
     96H  16/0600Z 49.0N  13.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    120H  17/0600Z 59.0N   7.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    
    $$
    Forecaster Beven
    
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    Posted
  • Location: East County Clare
  • Location: East County Clare

    Met Eireann have awoken from their slumber

    http://www.met.ie/nationalwarnings/default.asp

    Was reading the social media this morning and all that was saying was that Monday was going to be windy, nothing like the Daily Express headlines.

    I'm about 45 mins from Shannon airport with good access to M18 if anyone wants board and lodging!

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Although the general consensus of track they predict it to go,we are still 4-5 days away from it being nailed on in my view.

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    A quick scan through the ECM ensembles shows a more easterly route is still possible. One crazy member (number 3) sends it right up the Irish Sea with gusts over 110 mph near the Isle of Man, and gusts over 90mph on both the east coast of Ireland and western side of Wales/N England/S Scotland.

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    Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: RACY, Extratropical Storm, Barocyclonic Leaf
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

    20171012_0900k.thumb.png.57ba38ca52e391a38149e68cbbbe140d.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    can get a return flight to cork for £80......... 

    TEMPTED!!!

    tempted.thumb.gif.a67f64b9decec364999804548de3438f.gif

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    Just now, karlos1983 said:

    can get a return flight to cork for £80......... 

    TEMPTED!!!

    tempted.thumb.gif.a67f64b9decec364999804548de3438f.gif

     

    hold fire! IMO hot spots could be anywhere on the S Ireland coast, or pembrokeshire or anglesea yet - or on a boat of course (not recommended)!

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    hold fire! IMO hot spots could be anywhere on the S Ireland coast, or pembrokeshire or anglesea yet - or on a boat of course (not recommended)!

    LOL MWB , I think Ireland is the safest bet, probably on the south west coast (Near Portmagee is my bet!). I certainly wouldn't want to be on a boat come Monday off the Irish coast :nonono:

     

    make that £57 :shok:

    ireland.thumb.png.3265a949cca1349a186a1a833bc84e1b.png

     

    If it misses, then I'll just have to find a pub and get drunk :drunk: win win

    Edited by karlos1983
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    Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
    3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

    LOL MWB , I think Ireland is the safest bet, probably on the south west coast (Near Portmagee is my bet!). I certainly wouldn't want to be on a boat come Monday off the Irish coast :nonono:

     

    make that £57 :shok:

    ireland.thumb.png.3265a949cca1349a186a1a833bc84e1b.png

    "Ryanair"

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    Just now, Nick L said:

    "Ryanair"

    Good point, I probably haven't though this through Nick :ninja: LOL

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    Posted
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Newcastle Upon Tyne (Spital Tongues)

    I'd recommend getting out to Cape Clear island (off the south coast of Cork) the day before by boat. Did it February 2 years ago before a biggish Atlantic storm and got some great photos. I imagine the shots possible from Ophelia would be incredible!

    ZDvmMkB.jpg?1  6SXMkuN.jpg

    Edited by BornFromTheVoid
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    Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: RACY, Extratropical Storm, Barocyclonic Leaf
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

    FlyBe has 2 seats left to Knock from MAN at £85, flying out afternoon Sunday and returning back on the Tuesday. BA and AerLingus costing £200 further southwards towards Shannon/Cork. Otherwise the only other cheapest way of getting there is carpooling, sharing the ferry/fuel cost from Holyhead.

    Edited by SNOW_JOKE
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    Posted
  • Location: Livingston (ish)
  • Location: Livingston (ish)
    Just now, karlos1983 said:

    Good point, I probably haven't though this through Nick :ninja: LOL

    Oh for goodness sake!!! You know you wanna go, you know the cost is low, you'll have a brilliant time and you'll come back with amazing video! Just go!! Why don't the whole bunch of you go? Someone must have a big tent. Um... maybe a tent isn't a good idea, they magically transmogrify into kites in high winds. Anyway, think of the craik, think of the Guinness, think of the party...

     :yahoo::yahoo::yahoo::drunk-emoji::yahoo::drunk-emoji::friends:

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    Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: RACY, Extratropical Storm, Barocyclonic Leaf
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
    Just now, Fiona Robertson said:

    Oh for goodness sake!!! You know you wanna go, you know the cost is low, you'll have a brilliant time and you'll come back with amazing video! Just go!! Why don't the whole bunch of you go? Someone must have a big tent. Um... maybe a tent isn't a good idea, they magically transmogrify into kites in high winds. Anyway, think of the craik, think of the Guinness, think of the party...

     :yahoo::yahoo::yahoo::drunk-emoji::yahoo::drunk-emoji::friends:

    There's always the option of staying over at the airport Terminal, not quite 5-star but at least there's shelter, toilets, and food.

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