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5 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:

Why the heck is Wales not on an amber warning?

The Met Office has a warning matrix which allows them to hedge their bets a little. Currently, the warning is of a relatively low probability of a high impact event for Wales.



 

Screen Shot 2017-10-15 at 11.25.14.png

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44 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Slight shift further east looking at Noaa now that I read it. This will bring more of the UK into the mix of course.

Looking at the last 3 hourly surface obs, seems lateral movement has ground to a halt. Should start its course Northwards this afternoon. How far east of North will determine the expected regional forecasts. Most models seem to be holding the same track at this stage. Some amazing warmth wrapped up in the flow out of NW Africa and Portugal heading towards Blighty.

C

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2 minutes ago, crimsone said:

The Met Office has a warning matrix which allows them to hedge their bets a little. Currently, the warning is of a relatively low probability of a high impact event for Wales.



 

Screen Shot 2017-10-15 at 11.25.14.png

But coastal Wales is getting the same as N Ireland and they're on an amber.

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Just now, Fiona Robertson said:

But coastal Wales is getting the same as N Ireland and they're on an amber.

Evidently, the Met Office currently believes (at the time of the latest update, at least), that the event is more likely to severely impact N. Ireland than it is to impact Wales. :shrug:

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2 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:

But coastal Wales is getting the same as N Ireland and they're on an amber.

The Met office model obviously does not show the same impact; these advisories are subject to change in any case. 

Edited by draztik

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1 minute ago, Fiona Robertson said:

But coastal Wales is getting the same as N Ireland and they're on an amber.

It's not about wind strength , it's about impacts. It may well get altered but it kicks all sorts of emergency adn logistical processes so look at the overall message, not the colour

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I wrote this a few years ago but it explains how the warnings are no longer set by numerical limits of wind speed or rainfall amounts, it is about the impacts, where, how many, time of day, what the location is used to  https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/6466-yellow-amber-red---how-are-met-office-warnings-made 

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1 minute ago, Jo Farrow said:

It's not about wind strength , it's about impacts. It may well get altered but it kicks all sorts of emergency adn logistical processes so look at the overall message, not the colour

The problem is that most will look at the colour and not the overall message. They see the colour as indicating the probability and the strength of the system. I'm still coming across people who haven't even heard that this is on the way!

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1 minute ago, Fiona Robertson said:

The problem is that most will look at the colour and not the overall message. They see the colour as indicating the probability and the strength of the system. I'm still coming across people who haven't even heard that this is on the way!

Have to agree about looking at the colour

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If a red gets issued, people then think the orange isn't as dangerous. 

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3 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

If a red gets issued, people then think the orange isn't as dangerous. 

That's fair enough... but I said nothing about a red. I asked why Wales didn't get an amber. I agree that red needs to be kept for something very special.

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Met office warning of the potential for danger to life in northern Ireland

Between 15:00 Mon 16th and 22:00 Mon 16th

A spell of very windy weather is expected on Monday in association with ex-Ophelia. Longer journey times and cancellations are likely, as road, rail, air and ferry services may be affected as well as some bridge closures. There is a good chance that power cuts may occur, with the potential to affect other services, such as mobile phone coverage. Flying debris is likely, such as tiles blown from roofs, as well as large waves around coastal districts with beach material being thrown onto coastal roads, sea fronts and properties. This leads to the potential for injuries and danger to life.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings#?date=2017-10-16

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So, we're about to see what I call "the Vince problem" again...

The main map on the NHC website only goes so far to the NE. Approximately 50N 10W.

I would expect them to stop issuing public forecasts as it approaches the South of Ireland. That, or they'll just keep Ophelia's symbol in the top right corner of the map.

Never thought I'd see that again.

 

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16 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:

That's fair enough... but I said nothing about a red. I asked why Wales didn't get an amber. I agree that red needs to be kept for something very special.

No I meant, what ever the warning system is, peoples perceptions have to be considered but not paralysing. Someone just said there are people who are unaware still that this event is coming. A yellow is still a warning of severe weather. I think that can sometimes be lost. The Met Office are still updating , an amber may well appear

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2 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

No I meant, what ever the warning system is, peoples perceptions have to be considered but not paralysing. Someone just said there are people who are unaware still that this event is coming. A yellow is still a warning of severe weather. I think that can sometimes be lost. The Met Office are still updating , an amber may well appear

In terms this lass from the Valleys believes that others from the Valleys would understand: The Met Office has a responsibility to ensure that there's bread on the shelves and milk in the fridges. It doesn't take a lot to kick off a panic buying spree.

Build into it, and people are used to the idea and take it more seriously. Go straight for the amber warning, and all hell breaks loose both before and after.

Edited by crimsone

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4 minutes ago, crimsone said:

In terms this lass from the Valleys believes that others from the Valleys would understand: The Met Office has a responsibility to ensure that there's bread on the shelves and milk in the fridges. It doesn't take a lot to kick off a panic buying spree.

Build into it, and people are used to the idea and take it more seriously. Go straight for the amber warning, and all hell breaks loose both before and after.

Crimsone, I think thats a bit unfair and condescending towards the lady in question!

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4 minutes ago, crimsone said:

In terms this lass from the Valleys believes that others from the Valleys would understand: The Met Office has a responsibility to ensure that there's bread on the shelves and milk on the fridges. It doesn't take a lot to kick off a panic buying spree.

I expect a fair amount of research was done to establish this system. They didn't just think it up overnight! 

a fair chunk of the public wouldn't see the train coming until they had been run over by it. Not much you can do about them! 

 

 

21 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

Are 10m wind charts showing wind strength 10m ASL or 10m above your respective location? 

Good question - not sure the chart resolution of most modelling can pick up the general fluctuation of heights away from large features such as alps, massif centale etc

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Just now, Ukwoody said:

Crimsone, I think thats a bit unfair and condescending towards the lady in question!

Huh? Not sure I see how? I'm just recalling my experience of growing up in the S. Wales Valleys after all.

... and to be fair, though it sounds a bit mad, actually there's a little sense to it. Where I grew up especially, as we only had one road in and one road out (others often have one road in, and another over a mountain to the next valley or across the Heads of the Valleys). Essentially, if it looks like you might be stuck, and you know that people are going to mop up all the basics in the local shops, you tend to try to get there first, exacerbating the problem.

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2 minutes ago, crimsone said:

Huh? Not sure I see how? I'm just recalling my experience of growing up in the S. Wales Valleys after all.

... and to be fair, though it sounds a bit mad, actually there's a little sense to it. Where I grew up especially, as we only had one road in and one road out (others often have one road in, and another over a mountain to the next valley or across the Heads of the Valleys). Essentially, if it looks like you might be stuck, and you know that people are going to mop up all the basics in the local shops, you tend to try to get there first, exacerbating the problem.

The joys of rural living :-D

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