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1 hour ago, Surrey said:

Impossible tracks there, you have an omega block in place over Europe, hence the track that it is due to take into Ireland sliding "along" the high pressure, it's huge 

FB_IMG_1508050880264.thumb.jpg.7cbd2d147f0e11cfc5e317a1c584c2bd.jpg

 

Yep ,existing cloud structure to Ophelias north dictates most likley route.

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Just now, The PIT said:

We don't know that for sure. History show big storms in the past with unknown orgins.

Indeed history is a long blank white page generally speaking so it's wrong to conclude that this storm is new territory ,it's only common sense to believe that these sort of set ups have happened before long before anything was written down.

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7 minutes ago, Willsy said:

If you had read the post above it I said this I just for abit  of fun. I forgot t put the pic in my post so quoted it there.

You’re missing the point though, 24-36 hours away from impact and people may use this forum for guidance. Where’s the fun in that impossible scribble? Each to there own I guess. 

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All the charts will have to be viewed, there still could be slight changes in the track next 24hours, so areas affected could vary. 

As Hurricane #Ophelia undergoes transition from 'proper' hurricane to post-tropical cyclone with hurricane force winds, shown on NHC graphic as black circle H to white circle H (then white circle S, storm): The resulting cyclone/low will bring a stifling warm sector, note 25/26C for SE Britain on Monday. the thickness charts show a warm pool of air(over 1km up- warm seclusion) remnants of the warm core which won't exist at the surface by the time Ophelia reaches Ireland. Surface low forecast for/near SW Ireland. The strongest gusts occur in the SE quadrant of a low (in N.hemisphere). 73mph+ temp gusts, the mean sustained winds look to reach storm force for S.coast of Ireland.

Met Eireann from Sat Wind Warning for Galway, Mayo, Clare, Cork and Kerry

Hurricane Ophelia is expected to transition to a post tropical storm as it approaches our shores on Monday bringing severe winds and stormy conditions . Mean wind speeds in excess of 80 km/h and gusts in excess of 130km/h are expected, potentially causing structural damage and disruption, with dangerous marine conditions due to high seas and potential flooding.

1510opheliagrid4.png

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11 hours ago, John Hodgson said:

I’m getting very confused by some of the langauage that’s being used to describe this storm. Some weather blogs are saying hurricanes strength. But is that just gusts or sustained? 

For most places it'll be the gusts that are hurricane strength particularly the more inland you go, mean speeds will be more like 40 - 50 mph with gusts of 70 to 90 generally but in some isolated and very exposed coastal spots sustained hurricane winds 74 mph+ are feasible and here gusts of well over 100 mph are likely potentially as high as 110+  :help:

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5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Tomorrows wind gusts from the met office

8b278fec-8fb6-4062-821f-ffcbb41b8eaa.thumb.png.059edddd3102553225dc8306895900ef.pngb00a2b2f-c701-4552-b2d9-ca441c44b4d9.thumb.png.78fe25a92a0b165da72e206be8b5964e.pnge2cc0171-10f5-4da8-88d2-cf53f3756e17.thumb.png.b9e2f1ec4d63d436ff241b3f168da6bf.png

Interesting to see gusts nudging gale-force 35 - 40 mph as far east as London and the south-east, just shows the enormity of this storms wind field.

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Could be an tricky trip to West Wales tomorrow then. Didn’t realise gusts would be up so high so early in the day :shok: 

better leave bit early.

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1 hour ago, snowdog said:

BBC radio weather forecast seem to be playing down the effects of this ‘storm’. Just listened to the forecast on Radio 4 and he mentioned possible disruption tomorrow with gusts of 70 miles per hour. Maybe this is because they only cover Northern Ireland in their forecast?

When it comes to Northern Ireland the BBC couldn't give a stuff. Just leave that to the fifteen minute section at the end, newsline is pathetic. Anyway still looking for the wind in the NW could be faster?

 

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51 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Unlikely, as passing over cooler and cooler water plus dry air (see WV image below) and cold front encroaching from the west (see fax) will tend to elongate and break up the circulation of convection around the centre of the hurricane. So eye wall will eventually fill in today IMO.

 

seviri_eurnat_wv6-2_20171015_0700.jpg

PPVA89.gif

Thanks Nick. Yes I thought that, just a case of wait and see here onwards I guess. She's certainly keeping everyone on their toes as she's already doing some unexpected things like maintaining intensity further N and increasing when the expectation was for her to reduce intensity further S.

Fascinating and concerning in equal measure!

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Edited by Paul
Fixed tweet - just paste in the address of the tweet to embed it :)

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Looks like a good time to bring this old chart out again:  

59e3202653215_2017-10-1509_43_47.thumb.png.b27aa0d3a1309c9bd80defd7f288915d.png

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Quote

...OPHELIA NOW TAKING AIM ON IRELAND... ...EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TONIGHT...

5:00 AM AST Sun Oct 15
Location: 39.0°N 18.3°W
Moving: NE at 35 mph
Min pressure: 964 mb
Max sustained: 105 mph

Quote
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Some additional weakening is expected today and
on Monday, but Ophelia is forecast to become a powerful
post-tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds as it approaches
Ireland on Monday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).
Ophelia's eye recently passed near a drifting buoy that measured a
pressure of 970.9 mb (28.67 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Gale-force winds are expected to begin across southern
Ireland by early Monday morning and gradually spread northward
across the country during the day.  Hurricane-force winds are
expected to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday
afternoon and spread inland across the country into Monday night.
Preparations to protect lives and property should be rushed to
completion by this afternoon.

 

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:  Gale-force winds are expected to begin across southern
Ireland by early Monday morning and gradually spread northward
across the country during the day.  Hurricane-force winds are
expected to reach the southern portions of Ireland by Monday
afternoon and spread inland across the country into Monday night.
Preparations to protect lives and property should be rushed to
completion by this afternoon.

Wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains
are often up to 30 percent stronger than the near-surface winds
indicated in this advisory, and in some elevated locations could be
even greater.

RAINFALL:  Ophelia is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 2 to
3 inches (50 mm to 75 mm) with isolated totals near 4 inches (100
mm) through Tuesday across western Ireland and Scotland. Across
eastern Ireland, rainfall amounts will average around 1 inch (25 mm)
or less.

STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the
center makes landfall.  Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

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Schools buses and schools advised to close by Irish weather service in the south of the country. Irish weather services say it could be or has the potential to be as bad as debbie in 1961. I think that's pushing it. Living along Irish sea I don't think it will be so bad but I can see some coastal flooding occuring. 

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Wisemans Bridge is still looking like the best spot to watch this in South Wales to me. Strongest winds coincide with high tide almost perfectly. It is surprisingly hard to find someone who is up for going on a 500 mile round trip just to see some wind and big waves though, I don't particularly want to go alone.

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2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Wisemans Bridge is still looking like the best spot to watch this in South Wales to me. Strongest winds coincide with high tide almost perfectly. It is surprisingly hard to find someone who is up for going on a 500 mile round trip just to see some wind and big waves though, I don't particularly want to go alone.

I would imagine a huge sea swell tomorrow especially on the Irish sea coasts 30 to 50 foot waves possible combined with 100 mph gusts of wind for a time ,so ferry services will be cancelled.....

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34 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

All the charts will have to be viewed, there still could be slight changes in the track next 24hours, so areas affected could vary. 

As Hurricane #Ophelia undergoes transition from 'proper' hurricane to post-tropical cyclone with hurricane force winds, shown on NHC graphic as black circle H to white circle H (then white circle S, storm): The resulting cyclone/low will bring a stifling warm sector, note 25/26C for SE Britain on Monday. the thickness charts show a warm pool of air(over 1km up- warm seclusion) remnants of the warm core which won't exist at the surface by the time Ophelia reaches Ireland. Surface low forecast for/near SW Ireland. The strongest gusts occur in the SE quadrant of a low (in N.hemisphere). 73mph+ temp gusts, the mean sustained winds look to reach storm force for S.coast of Ireland.

Met Eireann from Sat Wind Warning for Galway, Mayo, Clare, Cork and Kerry

Hurricane Ophelia is expected to transition to a post tropical storm as it approaches our shores on Monday bringing severe winds and stormy conditions . Mean wind speeds in excess of 80 km/h and gusts in excess of 130km/h are expected, potentially causing structural damage and disruption, with dangerous marine conditions due to high seas and potential flooding.

1510opheliagrid4.png

At least Ophelia, unlike the 'hurricane' Michael Fish allegedly 'failed to forecast' actually started its life as one...? The 1987 storm was never a hurricane; it was just a very intense depression that deepened quickly and had associated hurricane-force wind gusts...At least, that's what I've spent the last thirty years arguing! :D

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1 minute ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

When will the Met Office warnings for the UK be reviewed? 

usually around 10:30/11am

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Just now, Ed Stone said:

At least Ophelia, unlike the 'hurricane' Michael Fish allegedly 'failed to forecast' actually started its life as one...? The 1987 storm was never a hurricane; it was just a very intense depression that deepened quickly and had associated hurricane-force wind gusts...At least, that's what I've spent the last thirty years arguing! :D

It was also I believe, the storm that lead to the discovery of 'sting jets'. 

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