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19 minutes ago, Insert Name Here said:

Isn't it fair to say that that picture shows a hurricane landfall?

Hurricane force post-tropical cyclone (white circle).

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Just now, snowdog said:

BBC radio weather forecast seem to be playing down the effects of this ‘storm’. Just listened to the forecast on Radio 4 and he mentioned possible disruption tomorrow with gusts of 70 miles per hour. Maybe this is because they only cover Northern Ireland in their forecast?

Yup, I think for the warned areas of uk this will be like an autumn storm, 70-80mph not unusual. Rep of Ireland though different story and I guess the Met O need to leave the Irish Met to deal with forecast and warnings to avoid any mixed messages or conflicting forecasts. 

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Any idea what impact Ophelia will have in South Wales yet?  I live in Swansea and am wondering if i am going to be able to make into work on the train as I work in Neath!!

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Can still see the eye in Ophelia, though not as wide or defined as earlier this morning

output_lEisdv.thumb.gif.a21838a1af0ba7b8c257a7813d6f0d83.gif

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9 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Can still see the eye in Ophelia, though not as wide or defined as earlier this morning

output_lEisdv.thumb.gif.a21838a1af0ba7b8c257a7813d6f0d83.gif

Is the water she's tracking over now too cold for EWRC? Or could that happen again?

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6 minutes ago, Insert Name Here said:

What time do the runs get released? I know they are at 00,06,12 etc but when does the data actually become available?

GFS

06z 10:30

12z 16:30

18z 22:30

00z 04:30

1 hour earlier when the clocks change in a couple of weeks 

Edited by karlos1983

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13 minutes ago, JeffC said:

Is the water she's tracking over now too cold for EWRC? Or could that happen again?

Unlikely, as passing over cooler and cooler water plus dry air (see WV image below) and cold front encroaching from the west (see fax) will tend to elongate and break up the circulation of convection around the centre of the hurricane. So eye wall will eventually fill in today IMO.

 

seviri_eurnat_wv6-2_20171015_0700.jpg

PPVA89.gif

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Incredible that she has maintained such a defined eye for this long so far to the east. Currently over waters around 22c and cooling quickly as she heads north 

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The fact that this developed into a major Category 3 hurricane so far east in the Atlantic is truly astonishing and surely a further indication if any was needed of the effects of Global Warming. It's certainly going to still be a very potent Hurricane-Force post tropical storm in the south of Ireland, there's almost certainly going to be 90 - 100 mph gusts in the most prone places like Dingle, Cork etc... possibly even something higher on exposed coastal bays. This is shaping up to be an absolute monster of a storm for the British Isles, I'm not sure we have ever seen anything quite like this although I understand from reading historical accounts that Hurricane Debbie in 1961 wasn't dissimilar. I also find it a freaky coincidence that this is going to make landfall on the 30th anniversary of The Great Storm of '87 all be it effecting the opposite side of the country and more Ireland then England. I don't envy our Irish friends tomorrow, but of course I pray that everyone heeds the warnings stays wise and stays safe especially my lovely friend Amy who lives in Carlow.

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6 minutes ago, knightstorm87 said:

The fact that this developed into a major Category 3 hurricane so far east in the Atlantic is truly astonishing and surely a further indication if any was needed of the effects of Global Warming.  I'm not sure we have ever seen anything quite like this although I understand from reading historical accounts that Hurricane Debbie in 1961 wasn't dissimilar. 

a shame that Debbie wasn't used 56 years ago as an indicator .................  could have levied all those green taxes on the sixties generation who could afford it!  I digress .....

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1 hour ago, Insert Name Here said:

Isn't it fair to say that that picture shows a hurricane landfall?

When the cone is indicated black or red with a H in it this indicates it is a proper hurricane, when the cone is white with a H in it that indicates Hurricane-Force winds but that it is post tropical and therefore allegedly lost it's hurricane characteristics, but when we are talking about hurricane strength winds that can still do so much damage to claim it's lost hurricane characteristics does sound like a rather petty technicality (try telling that to the trees that are blown over or your roof after it has blown off) LOL !!

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41 minutes ago, WelshWanderer said:

Any idea what impact Ophelia will have in South Wales yet?  I live in Swansea and am wondering if i am going to be able to make into work on the train as I work in Neath!!

Morning, yes a potent impact on southern Ireland initially with gusts of 100 mph plus and South Wales around Swansea for instance of perhaps 70 to 80 mph although not unusual by any means for Wales at this time of year....

ukgust (1).webp

ukgust.webp

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1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

Where’s that from? Most of those red lines aren’t even on the cards if your saying they are possible tracks? Not very helpful as this is quite a serious situation.

Agreed. This is potentially a life threatening event. Wonderful to watch from afar but very very serious for those in the thick of it. I, for one ,would like it just to clip a sparsely populated area of Western Ireland where everyone is safe and bunkered down so we can still admire the beauty of Ophelia relatively close. I have no desire to see mass destruction and potential casualties.

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9 hours ago, niconpat said:

Shirley would definitely be overblown by Ophelia if she was anywhere near those massive gusts.

The ICON model does look like it's gone off on a mad one, but it can't be dismissed yet. The high res models tomorrow will be interesting.

I sincerely hope that isn't the case, I have a beloved young lady who lives not far from Dublin so I'll be thinking of her and praying she stays safe. 80 - 90 mph would be bad enough let alone 130 - 140 :-(

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Could Micheal Fish be replaced as the bad quote of all time. Away from from Ireland a nice day.  Mmmmmm. Today is a day of watching how the hurricane decays. Will it defy the odds again.

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11 minutes ago, knightstorm87 said:

The fact that this developed into a major Category 3 hurricane so far east in the Atlantic is truly astonishing and surely a further indication if any was needed of the effects of Global Warming. It's certainly going to still be a very potent Hurricane-Force post tropical storm in the south of Ireland, there's almost certainly going to be 90 - 100 mph gusts in the most prone places like Dingle, Cork etc... possibly even something higher on exposed coastal bays. This is shaping up to be an absolute monster of a storm for the British Isles, I'm not sure we have ever seen anything quite like this although I understand from reading historical accounts that Hurricane Debbie in 1961 wasn't dissimilar. I also find it a freaky coincidence that this is going to make landfall on the 30th anniversary of The Great Storm of '87 all be it effecting the opposite side of the country and more Ireland then England. I don't envy our Irish friends tomorrow, but of course I pray that everyone heeds the warnings stays wise and stays safe especially my lovely friend Amy who lives in Carlow.

 Well everything we are seeing today mirrors everything that's happened in the past with our weather there's nothing new under the sun except for demographics and an alarming population growth. Well of course that and modern communications

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1 minute ago, ANYWEATHER said:

 Well everything we are seeing today mirrors everything that's happened in the past with our weather there's nothing new under the sun except for demographics and an alarming population growth. Well of course that and modern communications

Thats not true. This is the first Major Hurricane this far East. Nothing of this magnitude has been anywhere near Europe before.

While Europe has ex-Hurricane's almost every year, this is the first time there has even been a beast like Ophelia. Only one thats close might be the storm that hit Spain in the 1700's, as that must have been stronger before it made landfall.

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2 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

 Well everything we are seeing today mirrors everything that's happened in the past with our weather there's nothing new under the sun except for demographics and an alarming population growth. Well of course that and modern communications

Basically that remember the famous October storm was missed due to lack of data and this hurricane strength has mostly been guessed at due to lack of ships in the area and inability to send hunter aircraft into it as there isn't any this side of the pond.

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1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

Where’s that from? Most of those red lines aren’t even on the cards if your saying they are possible tracks? Not very helpful as this is quite a serious situation.

If you had read the post above it I said this I just for abit  of fun. I forgot t put the pic in my post so quoted it there.

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1 minute ago, cowdog said:

Thats not true. This is the first Major Hurricane this far East. Nothing of this magnitude has been anywhere near Europe before.

While Europe has ex-Hurricane's almost every year, this is the first time there has even been a beast like Ophelia. Only one thats close might be the storm that hit Spain in the 1700's, as that must have been stronger before it made landfall.

We don't know that for sure. History show big storms in the past with unknown orgins.

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