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On the Irish 9pm news tonight the storm wasn't even the main headline,was only the second headline.

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6 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

If, and it's a big if, this graphic is accurate, south east Ireland will be getting 130-140mph gusts. Surely overblown, surely?

Shirley would definitely be overblown by Ophelia if she was anywhere near those massive gusts.

The ICON model does look like it's gone off on a mad one, but it can't be dismissed yet. The high res models tomorrow will be interesting.

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54 minutes ago, Andy Pepler said:

im very surprised this thread is not busting servers ......

Actually it crashed earlier for me haha! 

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There is a few ECM ens that track Ophelia further east just off the coast of NW Spain,would be interested to see if there are more in the next runs.

 

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2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

There is a few ECM ens that track Ophelia further east just off the coast of NW Spain,would be interested to see if there are more in the next runs.

 

I'm asleep ,remember conservation of energy in angular momentum always goes east with increasing latitude , back to nod ,lol

 

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Just a thought will Ireland kill power as downed lines are dangerous?

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11 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

There is a few ECM ens that track Ophelia further east just off the coast of NW Spain,would be interested to see if there are more in the next runs.

 

That is quite interesting that’s the first real deviation I’ve seen unlikely < 5%.

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Aperage.  

12z vs 18z. A little stronger on the 18z.

IMG_6489.JPG

IMG_6514.PNG

Edited by MattStoke

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10 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

I'm asleep ,remember conservation of energy in angular momentum always goes east with increasing latitude , back to nod ,lol

 

Yes,everything shifts east,whether it be plumes or blast's from the north,this could surprise a few folk.

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5 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

That is quite interesting that’s the first real deviation I’ve seen unlikely < 5%.

Prob unlikely but not ignored:)

Edited by Allseasons-si

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1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Prob unlikely but not ignored:)

it would not take much thou..shift of 50 miles to the east could make things very messy ..

i feel for our irish weather fellows ..looks like a low level panic is setting in ..

but i am seeing plenty of good advice and kind words ..

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2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

 

if that cold front pushes any harder ..it will be comming to the uk like a guided missile 

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1 minute ago, Andy Pepler said:

it would not take much thou..shift of 50 miles to the east could make things very messy ..

i feel for our irish weather fellows ..looks like a low level panic is setting in ..

but i am seeing plenty of good advice and kind words ..

You are in the best place for informative info:)

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1 minute ago, Andy Pepler said:

it would not take much thou..shift of 50 miles to the east could make things very messy ..

i feel for our irish weather fellows ..looks like a low level panic is setting in ..

but i am seeing plenty of good advice and kind words ..

Keep in mind the weather forum on boards.ie is just a small subsection of a hugely popular Irish forum. When a weather thread gets popular it appears on the front page of the whole forum and chaos ensues. In saying that, the mods and regulars in the weather forum do a great job of keeping things somewhat under control :D

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Is this a prototype example of the future, is it possible to say that the chances of kind of scenario are going to increase in time?

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2 minutes ago, chillyblast said:

Is this a prototype example of the future, is it possible to say that the chances of kind of scenario are going to increase in time?

well you would have to be blind not to see that global climate is on the change ..if the sea temps get warmer then there is plenty of hurricane food ..

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Yes true re: gloabl climate, just seems that this year has gone up an abnormally high gear in comparison to the trend.

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1 hour ago, radiohead said:

b5234377868010e86b4e5b58b4616c46e39738af

That to me looks like the wind speed at around 800hPa, not surface.

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Ophelia has made it onto the European Sat24.com satellite page now. The eye is exceptionally well defined at the moment on the cloud satellite images.

 

ophelia.png

ophelia2.png

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