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Hurricane Ophelia

Jo Farrow
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matty40s Maestro

matty40s

Posted
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
  • Weather Preferences: extremes n snow
  • Location: on a canal , probably near Northampton...
Posted
15 minutes ago, bluekipper said:

I’m supposed to be landing an A320 in Belfast on Monday night. Timing wise, do we have any estimate? Cheers 

Try Thursday 

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, bluekipper said:

I’m supposed to be landing an A320 in Belfast on Monday night. Timing wise, do we have any estimate? Cheers 

I'm flying back to Manchester at 9ish pm and fully expect the flight to be cancelled due to the winds and the small size of the plane used. City airport only has one runway. I don't think taking off or landing in 70 mph crosswinds will be an option. 

Edited by CreweCold
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Day10 Apprentice

Day10

Posted
  • Location: East Hanney
  • Weather Preferences: 24 degrees clear skies in summer, -24 degrees clear skies in winter
  • Location: East Hanney
Posted
13 minutes ago, matty40s said:

Try Thursday 

:oops::rofl:

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Day10 Apprentice

Day10

Posted
  • Location: East Hanney
  • Weather Preferences: 24 degrees clear skies in summer, -24 degrees clear skies in winter
  • Location: East Hanney
Posted
12 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I'm flying back to Manchester at 9ish pm and fully expect the flight to be cancelled due to the winds and the small size of the plane used. City airport only has one runway. I don't think taking off or landing in 70 mph crosswinds will be an option. 

 Nope, ours have a 38kt limit 

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
7 minutes ago, bluekipper said:

 Nope, ours have a 38kt limit 

I'm not going to complain about having an extra day off work if it transpires :p

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted
42 minutes ago, bluekipper said:

I’m supposed to be landing an A320 in Belfast on Monday night. Timing wise, do we have any estimate? Cheers 

hmm, I think you might be blown off course a bit....attempting to land in Belfast but actally landing somewhere in Norway...lol................of course if you're travelling with Ryanair, this often happens regardless of the weather

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Andy Pepler Enthusiast

Andy Pepler

Posted
  • Location: Westbury wiltshire
  • Location: Westbury wiltshire
Posted

antennas down .garden cleared ...looked at latest models omfg what happend :O i thought it was loseing energy not gaining it ...im just glad that storm is not going up the irish sea ..

 

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Ross Andrew Hemphill Community Regular

Ross Andrew Hemphill

Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
Posted
12 minutes ago, Andy Pepler said:

antennas down .garden cleared ...looked at latest models omfg what happend :O i thought it was loseing energy not gaining it ...im just glad that storm is not going up the irish sea ..

 

I wouldn't jinx if I were you 

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Fiona Robertson Community Regular

Fiona Robertson

Posted
  • Location: Livingston (ish)
  • Location: Livingston (ish)
Posted
14 minutes ago, Andy Pepler said:

antennas down .garden cleared ...looked at latest models omfg what happend :O i thought it was loseing energy not gaining it ...im just glad that storm is not going up the irish sea ..

 

The centre isn't, but some of the strongest winds seem to be.

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Mokidugway Maestro

Mokidugway

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, Andy Pepler said:

antennas down .garden cleared ...looked at latest models omfg what happend :O i thought it was loseing energy not gaining it ...im just glad that storm is not going up the irish sea ..

 

I did the same, everything away apart from some heavy plant ,be worried if that blows away. :help: 

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
33 minutes ago, Snowflake Queen said:

Are you off to Norway then Aj :rofl:

mind the turbulence! 

Crew where you at the mo ? 

Hi SQ. In Belfast at the minute :)

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FetchCB Aficionado

FetchCB

Posted
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
  • Location: Home :Peterborough Work : St Ives
Posted
1 hour ago, crimsone said:

To be fair, I think it only right that the NHC takes the lead on warning about this. The Met Office is very, very experienced when it comes to extratropical cyclones.... they've been studying them for years as they're basically the bread and butter of UK weather. It's the NHC that has the expertise when it comes to hurricanes, and up until the point of transition, the NHC are probably best placed to forecase, with the Met Office taking advice from them for the time being...

... though that's not to say that the Met Office will have no input, of course. It's not as though they're clueless... thay just aren't the best available when it comes to the kind of systems the UK basically never sees (though they know our coast better than NHC, and have a better understanding ofg UK climactic conditions... not to mention that they have some of the best local tools available to them. They're getting a bloody good crash course in hurricanes right now though.

Of course the Met do have their own Tropical System and produce various organisations have responsibilities assigned to them via WMO

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone/warnings

I suspect that once Ophelia comes into view of the the UK model it will have transitioned to an extratropical low and the Met will assume forecasting responsibilities.  Current initialisation at the boundary of the model will be taken, I assume, from the global model as usual but forecast output will be modified to take account of the NHC guidance. 

Not forgetting that hurricanes introduce a high degree of uncertainty in its path I also seem to recall that the more intense the storm the more north west the path it takes. It is possible therefore that Ophelia may end up being more west if it continues to defy convention on intensity 

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Ross Andrew Hemphill Community Regular

Ross Andrew Hemphill

Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
Posted
3 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Doesn't conservation of angular momentum  at higher latitudes cause hurricanes to steer east ,and is this factored in to their projected course ? 

Really good question. 

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted

This tickled me 

2A1B0D9A-5998-4B63-A48C-BBEEEC501F7E.thumb.jpeg.f09d11a0e3cd4fcf5b98e4f46f888daf.jpeg

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MattStoke Maestro

MattStoke

Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
Posted
3 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Ec max winds from the 12z run. 

Quite damaging for a big chunk of Ireland. 

IMG_1390.PNG

Gusts or sustained?

Assume its in mph?

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Ross Andrew Hemphill Community Regular

Ross Andrew Hemphill

Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
Posted
1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Gusts or sustained?

Assume its in mph?

Gusts I'm sure. If it was 100mph sustained I'd be worried about wind for once 

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