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4 minutes ago, OPHELIA said:

I didn't say it would be a hurricane, but in nature it will stay out at seas to live(no I'm not saying this is a living organism), I already know weather systems can change it, but you seem to be treating it as a tropical storm in your comment, I don't believe it has to be over 26c water, it just needs to be over water no matter the temperature because that is how most storms like this form and live may it be hot or cold, and let me warp your mind even more...please do remember we are in a severe climate change so you and I both don't know what the hell we are talking about....the fact is...can you accept this ;).

What a load of tosh.

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their armoured vehicles are being made ready-

I'm pretty sure the sky turning yellow is the met office trying out a new warning system after some backlash. 

Looking forward to my trip to #Ireland

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1 minute ago, OPHELIA said:

Ok please do stop, you guys keep forgetting the climate is changing, you have to accept this.....wow.

Haha I do kinda agree with that, everyone saying it's "impossible" etc.. 

Whilst Ophelia probably wont be a hurricane when it hits Ireland, it's got damn closer than any other storm has. I wouldn't be surprised if the UK does get hit by a true hurricane at some point in the future.

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1 minute ago, Nick F said:

I think we have to accept you are trolling the thread with incorrect statements about how meteorology works.

It's a pity Nick, this thread is a wonderful opportunity for a good discussion to bring understanding to folks in the UK on the way these storms transition from hurricane to extra tropical, why we can never get a true hurricane ( well, not until our sea temps rise quite a bit!) and the fact we can, and often do get the remnants of hurricanes and every so often one of quite severe intensity if we get an Atlantic wanderer such as Ophelia.

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1 minute ago, OPHELIA said:

Really? Is this how you treat people with open minds who have studied the weather since child birth :(, I am not a troll I promise you this....Go ahead do your research, come on prove me wrong...what happens when water becomes warmer. I'm not a conspiracy theorist, the only thing that is stopping these storms from becoming more powerful is in fact....salt and maybe just maybe the tilt of the earth during autumn.   

 

I've had enough already. I thought this generation would be more open minded.

 

Depressions will increase, ex tropical storms can or could increase again it depends on the salt deposits in the atlantic and currents.

Please stop. This forum is predominantly good with discussion, there will always disagreement but your taking it to a new level. Your essentially saying those whom do research in these fields (Likely have PhD's) are completely wrong and in denial? 

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9 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Any more spamming or trolling of this thread will be removed ... so be warned. Let's keep discussion civil and sensibly reasoned  plz, this is not the place for trashing well known science with climate change as an excuse.

Oh at last Nick :), current posting by an individual has stopped me visiting this topic :)

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5 minutes ago, MattTarrant said:

Please stop. This forum is predominantly good with discussion, there will always disagreement but your taking it to a new level. Your essentially saying those whom do research in these fields (Likely have PhD's) are completely wrong and in denial? 

I'm asking all to do research.....with a please. no matter of education.

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14 minutes ago, OPHELIA said:

Really? Is this how you treat people with open minds who have studied the weather since child birth :(, I am not a troll I promise you this....Go ahead do your research, come on prove me wrong...what happens when water becomes warmer. I'm not a conspiracy theorist, the only thing that is stopping these storms from becoming more powerful is in fact....salt and maybe just maybe the tilt of the earth during autumn.   

 

I've had enough already. I thought this generation would be more open minded.

 

Depressions will increase, ex tropical storms can or could increase again it depends on the salt deposits in the atlantic and currents.

You’re being childish you’re doing the right thing if you want your account to cease to exist. Get a grip the UK will never be able to get a hurricane which makes landfall yes never, we can certainly have hurricane force winds, but not a hurricane with an eyewall and tropical convection bands - our northerly latitude simply does not allow it. 

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This morning's ECM appears further west to me. Most of the others keep pretty much the same track as they had yesterday, with some building up the windfield so that Cornwall and Pembrokeshire get clipped at 70-80mph. Gust generally pushing 100mph on arrival to Ireland, ECM would appear slightly less.

Now getting to the stage where short-term models are the best to follow (ARGEPE, AROME, NNM, WRF, EURO4). I've always thought the GFS did pretty well with storms inside of T72.

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Interesting stuff but potentially quite damaging in some locations, will post the live pressure charts link when I get back on the computer, as ever we won't know the exact track until this storm is knocking on the door but I really wouldn't fancy myself on the south Irish coast Monday 

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