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Posted
  • Location: Livingston (ish)
  • Location: Livingston (ish)
    2 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

    This has more similarity to Debbie 1961 than to the October 1987 case, at least so far on most models. That storm likely became extratropical around 48N 15W before racing past western Ireland and causing very strong wind gusts especially around Donegal, Derry and other parts of west Ulster. 

    In fact the model trend has been to track Ophelia further west with only a glancing blow for those same areas and later for northwest Scotland, but this trend may reverse closer to the time. 

    The difference "on the ground" when a cat-1 hurricane becomes extratropical is mostly academic, the radius of strong winds would likely expand somewhat and the storm will lose its intense inner core and features such as an intact eyewall although remnants will continue to circulate. The exact timing is not that important as locations along the track would likely experience just about the same results especially for these relatively weak eastern Atlantic hurricanes which are somewhat marginally tropical at their best, which is not to say they are weak as far as wind gusts, more in terms of tropical organization. In the western part of the Atlantic basin, an extratropical transition could be much more dramatic in terms of changing the storm's wind field. 

    This concept was not really developed in 1961 with Debbie which was analyzed as a hurricane until it was around 53 deg north but by today's standards it was probably extratropical a day earlier than that. 

    Thanks for that. It helps a lot. Next question - what's the worst case scenario for the central belt of Scotland. I hate to put you on the spot like this, but I need to be prepared. My horses are stabled in a field shelter in the garden with 10" bolts going into the soil, not a concrete base. Half doors face west, east wall has wind slats. The whole thing is situated to east of house, so well protected from west by gable end, but where we're situated we're completely exposed to westerly winds.

    I'm not asking for a forecast per se, just what the worst case scenario may be so I can prepare for that. If it doesn't happen, that's great. From past experience I can tell you that the worst thing in the world is being awoken at 3 am by two horses shouting and snorting in their stables just under my bedroom window as the wind howls and having to dash out to nail them down. IIRC, I spent the rest of that night dozing in one of the stables in my PJs to keep them calm. I got pooped on twice and widdled on once. Should I break out the sleeping bag just in case?

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    their armoured vehicles are being made ready-

    I'm pretty sure the sky turning yellow is the met office trying out a new warning system after some backlash. 

    Looking forward to my trip to #Ireland

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    Posted
  • Location: Border of N.Yorks / W.Yorks / Lancashire - 350m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but Rain!
  • Location: Border of N.Yorks / W.Yorks / Lancashire - 350m asl

    Dvorak readings have it at 4.5 i.e. clear Category 1 Hurricane with ~77 knts speed. Not much more and it would be a Category 2.

    17LP.GIF

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
    25 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:

    Thanks for that. It helps a lot. Next question - what's the worst case scenario for the central belt of Scotland. I hate to put you on the spot like this, but I need to be prepared. My horses are stabled in a field shelter in the garden with 10" bolts going into the soil, not a concrete base. Half doors face west, east wall has wind slats. The whole thing is situated to east of house, so well protected from west by gable end, but where we're situated we're completely exposed to westerly winds.

    I'm not asking for a forecast per se, just what the worst case scenario may be so I can prepare for that. If it doesn't happen, that's great. From past experience I can tell you that the worst thing in the world is being awoken at 3 am by two horses shouting and snorting in their stables just under my bedroom window as the wind howls and having to dash out to nail them down. IIRC, I spent the rest of that night dozing in one of the stables in my PJs to keep them calm. I got pooped on twice and widdled on once. Should I break out the sleeping bag just in case?

    It is way too early for any sort of realistic forecast , but realistically the worse case scenario for Scotland is probably some Gale force winds and heavy rain. By the time the system reaches Scotland the storm will have transitioned from a tropical system with warm core   (convection around a central low ) to your typical north Atlantic low pressure system. Once it is fully transitioned to extra tropical it should not be any worse than you typical autumn low pressure system. The only difference is that it might contain tropical moist air giving lots of rain, and as it interacts with the Jetstream it might deepen to give strong Gale force winds. The only question is really how and when the warm core dies and how the remnants of the storm interact with the Jetstream. Both of these should have happened by the time the remnants reach Scotland and most likely before it reaches the UK. There are some slight scenarios where  southern parts of the UK and Ireland could be affected by unusually high winds and rain for this time of the year, possibly even near  weak hurricane strength winds. Living in Scotland you are unlikely to experience much beyond your typical autumn low pressure system, with rainfall and flooding a more likely risk than abnormally high winds.

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    40 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:

    Thanks for that. It helps a lot. Next question - what's the worst case scenario for the central belt of Scotland. I hate to put you on the spot like this, but I need to be prepared. My horses are stabled in a field shelter in the garden with 10" bolts going into the soil, not a concrete base. Half doors face west, east wall has wind slats. The whole thing is situated to east of house, so well protected from west by gable end, but where we're situated we're completely exposed to westerly winds.

    I'm not asking for a forecast per se, just what the worst case scenario may be so I can prepare for that. If it doesn't happen, that's great. From past experience I can tell you that the worst thing in the world is being awoken at 3 am by two horses shouting and snorting in their stables just under my bedroom window as the wind howls and having to dash out to nail them down. IIRC, I spent the rest of that night dozing in one of the stables in my PJs to keep them calm. I got pooped on twice and widdled on once. Should I break out the sleeping bag just in case?

    10 inch bolts aren't enough we lost a stable block on walney years ago , it blew clean over a caravan  that was behind the hedge and disintegrated ,each section took 4 men to lift .

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Fiona: If this brings any strong winds to Britain they would likely be from south to southwest, and I think the central belt of Scotland gets its strongest winds when the direction is westerly due to the channelling effects of the terrain.

    So with the current low probability of your being in the worst location anyway, I wouldn't worry about this situation, it will probably be an issue for Northern Ireland and western Scotland. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Livingston (ish)
  • Location: Livingston (ish)

    Thanks peeps. I feel a bit less worried. I'm gonna spend the next few days on a good tidy-up and redigging my wee drains around the stables. Anything that might blow away is getting moved into a shed... which might blow away. I'll prep for normal gale and keep me fingers crossed.

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    34 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:

    Thanks peeps. I feel a bit less worried. I'm gonna spend the next few days on a good tidy-up and redigging my wee drains around the stables. Anything that might blow away is getting moved into a shed... which might blow away. I'll prep for normal gale and keep me fingers crossed.

    Not trying to spook you ,lol if you have a  heavy farm trailer or tractor to brake windflow  over stable would help .

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    Posted
  • Location: Border of N.Yorks / W.Yorks / Lancashire - 350m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but Rain!
  • Location: Border of N.Yorks / W.Yorks / Lancashire - 350m asl

    Raw Dvorak estimate is now at 5.3 i.e. about 100 knots winds. Possibility this is intensifying at a rapid rate. We really could have done with having a recon plane flown over from the US once this become a TD, its likely too late now.

    Edited by cowdog
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    2 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

    This has more similarity to Debbie 1961 than to the October 1987 case, at least so far on most models. That storm likely became extratropical around 48N 15W before racing past western Ireland and causing very strong wind gusts especially around Donegal, Derry and other parts of west Ulster. 

    In fact the model trend has been to track Ophelia further west with only a glancing blow for those same areas and later for northwest Scotland, but this trend may reverse closer to the time. 

    The difference "on the ground" when a cat-1 hurricane becomes extratropical is mostly academic, the radius of strong winds would likely expand somewhat and the storm will lose its intense inner core and features such as an intact eyewall although remnants will continue to circulate. The exact timing is not that important as locations along the track would likely experience just about the same results especially for these relatively weak eastern Atlantic hurricanes which are somewhat marginally tropical at their best, which is not to say they are weak as far as wind gusts, more in terms of tropical organization. In the western part of the Atlantic basin, an extratropical transition could be much more dramatic in terms of changing the storm's wind field. 

    This concept was not really developed in 1961 with Debbie which was analyzed as a hurricane until it was around 53 deg north but by today's standards it was probably extratropical a day earlier than that. 

     

    The North West is still reeling over the freak rain in late August (or is it early sept, can't remember) especially Donegal. Another big blow wouldn't be helpful when some roads are still being repaired. (I'm shocked at how slow it has been)

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    Posted
  • Location: Livingston (ish)
  • Location: Livingston (ish)
    56 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

    Not trying to spook you ,lol if you have a  heavy farm trailer or tractor to brake windflow  over stable would help .

    Erm... I have a Kia Picanto...um... can't get it into garden. Can barely fit a cat in that, let alone use it to shield me stables.

    Dratted thing is looking more organised.

    Edited by Fiona Robertson
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    Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: RACY, Extratropical Storm, Barocyclonic Leaf
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

    Anyone know if there'll be an immediate handover from NHC to the MetO, or will the NHC continue to keep tracking up until it loses Hurricane status? MetO are generally poor with regards to forecasts and warnings in the style that the NHC provides to the public.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

    I suspect NHC will just continue tracking it until it loses hurricane status as there are no European agencies dedicated to tracking tropical systems (since tropical systems affecting Europe are extraordinarily rare).

    Edited by cheese
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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Looking at the discussion and if the trough providing the steering is a little later than forecast that would shift Ophelia further east. Direct hit. If the trough forms earlier then further west and a total fish spinner. Definatley worth keeping an eye on. As it is nasty for Ireland at the moment if the GFS is correct.

    Edited by The PIT
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    Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: RACY, Extratropical Storm, Barocyclonic Leaf
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

    Certainly been quite some-time since i've seen wind gusts on the GFS this high. If Ryanair was reliable (and cheaper) i'd consider taking a flight to Shannon to intercept ex-Ophelia.

    Untitled.thumb.jpg.87a47985b7756f9dcb8fcc3e9c4db7d4.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: very cold frosty days, blizzards, very hot weather, floods, storms
  • Location: Clayton-Le-Woods, Chorley 59m asl.

    Last time a hurricane hit Ireland was Debbie in 1961.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Debbie_(1961)

    Hurricane Debbie is the most powerful cyclone on record to strike Ireland in September, and possibly the only tropical cyclone on record to ever strike Britain and Ireland while still tropical. The fourth named storm of the 1961 Atlantic hurricane season, Debbie originated from a well-defined tropical disturbance that was first identified in late August over Central Africa

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    38 minutes ago, pip22 said:

    Last time a hurricane hit Ireland was Debbie in 1961.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Debbie_(1961)

    Hurricane Debbie is the most powerful cyclone on record to strike Ireland in September, and possibly the only tropical cyclone on record to ever strike Britain and Ireland while still tropical. The fourth named storm of the 1961 Atlantic hurricane season, Debbie originated from a well-defined tropical disturbance that was first identified in late August over Central Africa

    Latest ECM looks like the second tropical storm to hit Ireland then. Looking forward to seeing the windspeed on it when they come out later. Don't think I've ever seen isobars so tight in our vicinity. Gusts over 100mph I'd think.

    Wouldn't rule out an eastwards shift yet, plumes normally correct at least a little east...

    Edit - got the windspeeds here, 111mph the peak gusts :0

    https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2017101112/cork/gusts-3h-mph/20171016-1500z.html

    Edited by Man With Beard
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    Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and winter storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
    8 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    Latest ECM looks like the second tropical storm to hit Ireland then. Looking forward to seeing the windspeed on it when they come out later. Don't think I've ever seen isobars so tight in our vicinity. Gusts over 100mph I'd think.

    Wouldn't rule out an eastwards shift yet, plumes normally correct at least a little east...

    Edit - got the windspeeds here, 111mph the peak gusts :0

    https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2017101112/cork/gusts-3h-mph/20171016-1500z.html

    :shok::shok::shok:

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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    Alone among the major models, GEM tracks it 1987-style towards southern England. Same date hmm. 

    There's more in heaven and earth than is forecast in your model suite?

    Somebody's going to be getting the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune. 

    Edited by Roger J Smith
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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    Ophelia now a hurricane, change of title needed ...

    000
    WTNT42 KNHC 112031
    TCDAT2

    Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number  11
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172017
    500 PM AST Wed Oct 11 2017

    Intensity estimates for Ophelia still range wildly.  Dvorak
    estimates, both subjective and objective, continue to support a much
    higher intensity than other satellite-derived maximum wind
    estimates.  Adding to the uncertainty, subjective Dvorak
    classifications at 1800 UTC were higher than 6 hours prior, but
    since that time, the ragged eye has become obscured in IR imagery.
    However, a recent SSMIS pass at 1813 UTC indicated that the
    convective structure of the cyclone has improved during the day, so
    it wouldn't be surprising if the eye became apparent again shortly.
    In an attempt to blend all available data, the initial intensity has
    been increased to 65 kt, making Ophelia a hurricane. However, it
    should be stressed that the uncertainty of the initial intensity is
    higher than normal.

    The hurricane is moving slowly toward the east and the initial
    motion estimate is 090/3 kt.  The hurricane is embedded within weak
    steering flow, and only a slow northeastward drift is expected for
    the next 24 h.  After that time, an approaching deep-layer trough
    should force Ophelia to accelerate toward the northeast.  All of the
    deterministic models are in fairly good agreement on the speed and
    track of Ophelia, however the various model ensembles suggest that
    the uncertainty is much higher, especially regarding the forward
    speed of Ophelia beyond 48 h.  The official track forecast favors
    the deterministic model solutions, in part to maintain continuity
    with the previous advisory.  The track forecast is therefore close
    to the multi-model consensus, but much faster than the various
    ensemble mean aids.

    Since it isn't clear exactly how strong Ophelia is, the intensity
    forecast is low confidence.  All of the intensity guidance indicates
    that strengthening is likely for the next 24 to 36 hours, however
    the near stationary motion of the hurricane could induce some
    upwelling and limit the extent to which the hurricane may
    strengthen.  Around 72 hours, the shear should begin to increase
    substantially as Ophelia begins to interact with the approaching
    trough, and extratropical transition will likely begin, accompanied
    by a broadening of the wind field and a gradual decrease of the
    maximum winds.  The global models indicate that this process will
    complete by 96 h.  The new NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher
    than the previous forecast, but lies on the lower end of the
    intensity guidance for the first 72 h.  It is near the consensus
    aids thereafter.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Border of N.Yorks / W.Yorks / Lancashire - 350m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but Rain!
  • Location: Border of N.Yorks / W.Yorks / Lancashire - 350m asl

    Note the warning cone is now on the coast of Ireland i.e. they have moved it East since the last update.

    Hope they are right that the Dvorak is wrong, as if it is as intense as that is estimating its not going to be fun.

    Edited by cowdog
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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    Definitely a shift east comparing 00z to 12z today. Personally hope that trend continues. 

    809F2873-D609-4C1C-AD6D-C6B82A0C7698.thumb.jpeg.fa80eb6fce255d72bdc0817b28a50d32.jpeg4D07AB05-CDE5-462D-86B7-914B0FC578D5.thumb.jpeg.371e74d89f11b38e216a77c28121b087.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    It does look like Ireland could bare the brunt of this one. Lets hope the trend Eastwards continues, would love to be able to go down to the South-Coast and see huge waves rolling in.

    gh500_120.jpg

    storm_tracks_120.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and winter storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
    1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

    It does look like Ireland could bare the brunt of this one. Lets hope the trend Eastwards continues, would love to be able to go down to the South-Coast and see huge waves rolling in.

    gh500_120.jpg

    storm_tracks_120.jpg

    Same!

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