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Just now, karlos1983 said:

Form horse still west of Ireland MWB? 

As much is I’d like a track up the Irish Sea, I cant see it

Oh certainly. Perhaps 70% of the ensembles pushed the centre of the storm that way. But some of these had such a large spread of winds that the Irish Sea still got hammered anyway, and in some cases more than the west of Ireland.

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their armoured vehicles are being made ready-

I'm pretty sure the sky turning yellow is the met office trying out a new warning system after some backlash. 

Looking forward to my trip to #Ireland

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11 minutes ago, Paul said:

Can we keep to the topic of Ophelia please, it's all getting a bit off topic in here at times. 

Those wanting to chat about non-weather related stuff, the lounge is a good option :)

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/17-the-lounge/

Ok, sorry :(, but cat 3 for sunday is what I am trying to produce, I just wanted to share that, I am unpredictable right now (I like to make you guys work), the seas are rather higher in temperature than usual, so I'm a little excited forgive me. I have begun to interact with winds from the north. This is a little too early for me but it does give me the advantage to transform more early. 

 

I'm not joking here when I give information to what I know. I just wish to share my information in a different view for others to understand...in a little crazy way.

Edited by OPHELIA
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1 minute ago, Mokidugway said:

If Ophelia tracked up the Irish Sea I would imagine a storm surge of  about 2 metres ,with hi tide that itself could be very serious .

I was wondering why surge hasn’t been mentioned really with this storm, when usually with hurricanes ex/post etc usually the biggest issue is surge, guessing because the coasts in question aren’t really at risk due to structure of coastline? I.e. cliff faces, unpopulated ?

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3 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

If Ophelia tracked up the Irish Sea I would imagine a storm surge of  about 2 metres ,coinciding with a high tide that itself could be very serious .

Is that inland or out at sea? There is a difference with coastal effects compared to the open sea.

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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

I was wondering why surge hasn’t been mentioned really with this storm, when usually with hurricanes ex/post etc usually the biggest issue is surge, guessing because the coasts in question aren’t really at risk due to structure of coastline? I.e. cliff faces, unpopulated ?

I've being saying it all night...Co.Cork is my worry.

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An except from the latest NHC guidance discussion. The last bit is particularly interesting - the possibility that Ophelia may get even stronger for a period after 36 hours:

Little change in strength is expected while Ophelia remains a hurricane, since the relatively cool SSTs along the hurricane's path will likely be offset by low shear and cold upper-level temperatures for the next 36 h. Extratropical transition will likely begin shortly after that time, as Ophelia begins to interact with a large upper-level trough approaching from the west. The dynamical guidance suggests that Ophelia will deepen in response to the trough, and although the forecast does not explicitly show it, I can not rule out that Ophelia will briefly intensify as it undergoes extratropical transition.

Edited by Man With Beard
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Just now, OPHELIA said:

I've being saying it all night...Co.Cork is my worry.

I’m struggling to follow your posts, what’s a real post and what’s tongue in cheek... no offence meant,  but I Is fick! 

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8 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

If Ophelia tracked up the Irish Sea I would imagine a storm surge of  about 2 metres ,coinciding with a high tide that itself could be very serious .

I'm reading 9 meters out at sea. So this is why I ask is your readings for the coasts or the sea...open ocean.

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6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I was wondering why surge hasn’t been mentioned really with this storm, when usually with hurricanes ex/post etc usually the biggest issue is surge, guessing because the coasts in question aren’t really at risk due to structure of coastline? I.e. cliff faces, unpopulated ?

Unlike the low level parts of morcambe bay etc , could be nasty this .

 

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5 minutes ago, OPHELIA said:

I'm reading 9 meters out at sea. So this is why I ask is your readings for the coasts or the sea...open ocean.

I'm going on the principle that a winter windstorm can produce a 1 to 1.5 metre surge  in my location,though it relative to  coinciding with high tide .

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13 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I’m struggling to follow your posts, what’s a real post and what’s tongue in cheek... no offence meant,  but I Is fick! 

I've been talking about swells most of the day, but I don't see any information confirming any informative conformation about swells, we all know swells come with these type of storms, but it seems that nobody seems to acknowledge that these storms produce swells ....but I know and you know they can kick up a swell so my worry is with a tide (not a spring tide) could this cause any form of flooding? Now I know the ground is not wet enough to cause an major floods but with a swell it can change the effects of rivers, as we know Ireland has high mountains in the west so what if...just IF the rains could be heavy enough and stalled. 

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6 minutes ago, ForeverPomeroysnow said:

Has this happened before?  Night of the big wind in the 18th century? 

Yes this has happened before, but in today's world it's different...you will see in the future...more to come lol...I'm to busy to explain. 

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1 minute ago, OPHELIA said:

I've been talking about swells most of the day, but I don't see any information confirming any informative conformation about swells, we all know swells come with these type of storms, but it seems that nobody seems to acknowledge that these storms produce swells ....but I know and you know they can kick up a swell so my worry is with a tide (not a spring tide) could this cause any form of flooding? Now I know the ground is not wet enough to cause an major floods but with a swell it can change the effects of rivers, as we know Ireland has high mountains in the west so what if...just IF the rains could be heavy enough stalled. 

Oh I agree, flooding could well be an issue, for coastal communities, overlapping, especially if the storm centre makes a landfall at a vulnerable location, as that’s where the surge will be at its highest. Interesting weekend ahead watching the track 

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2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Oh I agree, flooding could well be an issue, for coastal communities, overlapping, especially if the storm centre makes a landfall at a vulnerable location, as that’s where the surge will be at its highest. Interesting weekend ahead watching the track 

No no it doesn't have to make landfall the surge is actually spread out and at sea heading to land, it's not a hurricane when it hits us. the surge can in fact go all around Ireland from 1 inch to meters ;).

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9 minutes ago, Paul said:

Current forecast wave heights, are 9-10 metres, so yeah quite a swell!

waveheights.png

Paul I believe it's actually showing 12 metres in places? and I note 6 meters even in Cornwall.

Is Mike Theiss on his way??

Edited by Man With Beard
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7 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Christ almighty, that’s 30 ft :shok:

Ah see..omg a pun is coming...see it's different out at sea, so what will be the swell when it hit land?

Edited by OPHELIA
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