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Posted
  • Location: Loughmacrory, Co Tyrone. 170m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow
  • Location: Loughmacrory, Co Tyrone. 170m asl
    21 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    Indeed. If anyone told me that my house would be in the middle of a hurricane warning cone I would have thought they were mad.

    Absolutely surreal, isn't it? 

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    their armoured vehicles are being made ready-

    I'm pretty sure the sky turning yellow is the met office trying out a new warning system after some backlash. 

    Looking forward to my trip to #Ireland

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
    5 hours ago, alr1970 said:

    There's a load of quite tall mountains on that peninsula, hence the high winds. Mount Brandon is 952m.

    Still looks pretty windy to me and yes i have been to the peninsula many a time.:wink::)

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    Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Severe storms and heavy snow
  • Location: Hull
    23 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

    As soon as the storm develops into a system of fronts it is no longer a 'Hurricane'. However I suspect it will still contain tropical sourced air around the core even as it hits Ireland. That would make Shroedingers cat even more confused.

    I believe the scientific term is frankenstorm.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Severe storms and heavy snow
  • Location: Hull

    Okay so I understand that the difference between a hurricane or a hurricane force extra tropical storm are acedmeic, but what bothers me is that people seem to think this is going to be something equiv to cat 3+ or something. I’m torn between being fascinated by this and wanting to share that, but then having to calm people down and call out misinformation and exaggeration! Help someone? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    noaa has hurricane force winds just off Ireland this afternoon. The path getting narrower. So it's looking like western ireland north western scotland.

    xcweather gives the expected speeds http://www.xcweather.co.uk/GB/forecast

    Edited by The PIT
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    Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian
    59 minutes ago, knightstorm87 said:

    I fail to see how it would have lost all the "characteristics" of a hurricane if the winds remain at hurricane-force or there or there abouts and therefore potentially cause equally as much carnage?...

    a bit of an explanation https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/8491-whats-all-this--its-not-a-hurricane--stuff-ophelia-heads-our-way 

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    Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian
    5 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

    It's funny we're having this discussion 30 years ago Michael Fish was saying the same :rofl:

    His usual Weekly Friday video is out . I spoke to him last night, he's been rushed off his feet with interviews and chat about the Great Storm. He'll need a lie down next week https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/8494-michael-fish-30-years-on-from-the-great-storm-hurricane-ophelia-looms-large 

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    Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

    Same old from GFS. A little east track from earlier, center still off shore, winds slightly stronger overall.

     

    GEM looking severe

    gem-0-72.png?12

    Edited by The Eagle
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Location: Leeds
    24 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

    His usual Weekly Friday video is out . I spoke to him last night, he's been rushed off his feet with interviews and chat about the Great Storm. He'll need a lie down next week https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/8494-michael-fish-30-years-on-from-the-great-storm-hurricane-ophelia-looms-large 

    I'm surprised Michael Fish isn't participating in the Royal Meteorological Society talk on the Great Storm of 87 with Peter Gibbs at University of Leeds on Monday.  Either way I'm sure it will fantastic!  I'm counting down the days until Monday.

    Edited by Thermohaline Conveyor
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    Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire

    I'm sure this storm will be mentioned at the TORRO conference tomorrow for anyone else attending!

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    Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian
    19 minutes ago, Thermohaline Conveyor said:

    I'm surprised Michael Fish isn't participating in the Royal Meteorological Society talk on the Great Storm of 87 with Peter Gibbs at University of Leeds on Monday.  Either way I'm sure it will fantastic!  I'm counting down the days until Monday.

    maybe a bit far from Twickenham. Enjoy!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Well unless there's a change of heart from the ecm it looks like the  western Ireland and north western Scotland going to bare the front of the weather.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Location: Leeds
    25 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

    maybe a bit far from Twickenham. Enjoy!

    True.  No doubt considering the context of the talk and the ironic similarities with the current weather set-up a short synoptic analysis on Ophelia will also be discussed.  Fascinating meteorology right now.  I get to tick meeting another famous BBC weather presenter off of my tick list too 6 down and many more to go.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Location: Leeds
    3 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:

    Just a wee aside. Has anyone noticed the winds for next Friday on the GFS?

    I think considering the inherent uncertainties in the model forecasts at the moment due to the tropical interaction with the mid westerlies anything beyond T+120 should be taken with a pinch of salt.  Interesting feature though for sure and the ECMWF also picks up on it but bombs it out to the North of Scotland.

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    Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian
    11 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:

    Just a wee aside. Has anyone noticed the winds for next Friday on the GFS?

    Let's stay on Ophelia in this thread, there's enough variation in that

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    Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)

    Just catching up with all of this. It's bizarre enough having 27c in October (though this has been a pattern over here in France for the last couple of years - we had the same temps in November last year and the year before! We had to put the blinds down in the classroom this afternoon as we were baking) but a "hurricane" is truly amazing. Glad I'm flying back tomorrow and not Monday though - I was originally going to until I realised tomorrow was our wedding anniversary :girl_devil: :) and those two folks going down to Cork need to be careful on the coast. Certainly watching with interest now that I am back on the dreaded island for a little while.

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    Posted
  • Location: Livingston (ish)
  • Location: Livingston (ish)
    Just now, Jo Farrow said:

    Let's stay on Ophelia in this thread, there's enough variation in that

    That's so true, sorry about that.

    I have to say that I'm so pleased that the NHC has continued tracking this dratted thing. The warning cones they've produced have been really useful to me. As someone else mentioned, it's not every day that you have an NHC warning cone slap bang over your house in Scotland! :help: 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Location: Leeds
    3 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

    I have no idea where this comes from or how accurate it is, but it's a bit of Ophelia gossip and claims there are models that want to take it up to Cat 3 or 4.

    al172017_inten.png

    The main cluster sits around the OFCL issued by NOAA NHC so that will be where Ophelia will sit.  Consider the three deviating toward the major category status to be significant outliers, especially when you consider the models involved.

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    Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
    1 minute ago, Thermohaline Conveyor said:

    The main cluster sits around the OFCL issued by NOAA NHC so that will be where Ophelia will sit.  Consider the three deviating toward the major category status to be significant outliers, especially when you consider the models involved.

    Looks like it will be category 1 status winds in to the southwest of Ireland on Monday morning/afternoon.

    Edited by The Eagle
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    Posted
  • Location: Atlantic Ocean
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes
  • Location: Atlantic Ocean

    It's really humid and warm here today. Some strong winds but nothing out of the ordinary, a little bit of rain.

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Location: Leeds
    9 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

    Looks like it will be category 1 status winds in to the southwest of Ireland.

    Yes it does look that way.  I had a feeling the trending would be marginally more to the West and it seems to have panned out that way.  Well lets just say that it seems to be panning out this way thus far, we still have a few more runs until the wobbles firm up.  A slight shift left or right would still not be unusual given the set-up.  Ophelia still needs to interact with the upper trough and undergo extra tropical transitioning and this will largely determine the track on approach to Ireland.  Interesting though because if you analyse the potential temperature at 850hpa you will notice that Ophelia still has a warm core on approach and during the early passage across W Ireland, largely suggesting she maintains quite a strong tropical dynamic.  I think by the stage she makes landfall she will be entering a warm seclusion process but nevertheless a rare and exciting sight indeed.  You over there in Dublin will certainly feel the effect of Ophelia with inland gales gusting 50-60mph, perhaps edging 70mph in exposed coastal locales and across higher terrain.

    Edited by Thermohaline Conveyor
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