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their armoured vehicles are being made ready-

I'm pretty sure the sky turning yellow is the met office trying out a new warning system after some backlash. 

Looking forward to my trip to #Ireland

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Looking through the individual ECM ensembles, the spread of possibilities is similar to last night - mostly focused on Ireland, but a fair number causing trouble all the way up the west coast of the UK mainland.

    However, the intensity has, on the whole, dropped a bit. For Ireland, I couldn't see any runs with gusts over 110mph, and the majority don't reach 100mph. As for the UK, there are a few runs hitting the west coast in the 90s mph but the majority would be just average gales. 

    An increasing number of runs don't develop the low at all - perhaps 20% don't even get to 70mph within sight of Ireland.

    But I suppose developments are going to be late in verifying. The hurricane has a lot of transitions to go through before going towards us. Like the tweet above, it could yet head for the UK, not a big shift required.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Zealand
  • Location: New Zealand
    3 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

    Looks a little weaker prospect now but still packing a punch as the probabilities creep up

     

    W4p1Bqs.png?1

    I still love that image. It's like the generator is programmed to say "Yeah, OK... most of the UK is, I guess, the ~remotest~ of possibilities for a tropical cyclone, but if you get to 1W or 60N and are still trying to claim there's a chance of a tropical storm wind field, you're REALLY taking the proverbial!"


     

    Edited by crimsone
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    32 minutes ago, crimsone said:

    I still love that image. It's like the generator is programmed to say "Yeah, OK... most of the UK is, I guess, the ~remotest~ of possibilities for a tropical cyclone, but if you get to 1W or 60N and are still trying to claim there's a chance of a tropical storm wind field, you're REALLY taking the proverbial!"


     

    "NHC's graphical product suite cannot handle forecast points east of the Prime Meridian, so the official forecast now cuts off after day 4."

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    Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
    1 minute ago, mockmoon said:

    "NHC's graphical product suite cannot handle forecast points east of the Prime Meridian, so the official forecast now cuts off after day 4."

    Love that.

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    4 minutes ago, mockmoon said:

    "NHC's graphical product suite cannot handle forecast points east of the Prime Meridian, so the official forecast now cuts off after day 4."

    So Ophelia has bust the scale :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire

    Me and my good friend are flying out to Cork on sunday. Looking to get some great videos. Will share my experience later next week.

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    Posted
  • Location: Reading
  • Location: Reading
    2 hours ago, crimsone said:

    I still love that image. It's like the generator is programmed to say "Yeah, OK... most of the UK is, I guess, the ~remotest~ of possibilities for a tropical cyclone, but if you get to 1W or 60N and are still trying to claim there's a chance of a tropical storm wind field, you're REALLY taking the proverbial!"


     

    It's great, isn't it? Small chance of mass destruction one mile west of my house while I look out and think it's looking a bit blowy out there :D

    Edited by Stargazer
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    Posted
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: RACY, Extratropical Storm, Barocyclonic Leaf
  • Location: Whaley Bridge - Peak District

    The problem with Ophelia lies with atmospheric soundings, it's in a environment Hurricane's generally don't tend to like in-terms of the shallower convection alongside cooler (but still warm) SSTs. A weak CAT3 is possible but anything stronger than that wouldn't be sustainable at the latitude it's moving northwards into.

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire
  • Location: Coventry,Warwickshire

      Just coming into range of some shorter range models like the lightning wizard ones which can give some further insight into expected conditions. Wind gusts over 90 knots  (100mph+) for southern Ireland for example. I have also being trying to assess the potential for embedded super-cells which could pose a lightning, hail or tornado risk as well. Looking at mid level and low level lapse rates and overlaps between the steepest lapse rates for both, then I don't think there is much of a tornado risk (perhaps a waterspout risk for southern Ireland coasts). The parameters for an embedded non surface based super-cell are not that good either despite what some charts suggest apart from very close to the center of the storm. There is some marked vorticity advection from the cold front and some weak instability which would have to be watched. Theta e and Thompson index values suggest some very heavy rainfall for Ireland and perhaps to a lesser extent from the cold front associated with it. Assessing whether there is a possibility of a sting jet scenario is also tricky, as there is rapid cyclogenesis caused by the Jetstream, but also an amount of frontal wrapping around the center of the low. Despite quite a narrow gap between the cold front and central core for a period and the jet streak over the cold front, I am not at the minute thinking a sting jet is on the cards. Some of these factors which I don't think will be applicable for the UK (convective potential) may not hold true for parts of Europe as it weakens and moves across the north of Europe, so European forecasters should probably keep an eye on events as well.
      Longer range modelling differences between some European models and GFS have shown differences in the handling of a trough down towards the Baltics with European models I think picking up the trend earlier. I think makes the eastward shift in the forecast from European models more likely. Ensemble members were a little confused about a low pressure system developing along the frontal boundary Saturday into Sunday which moves across to northern Europe late Sunday. This looks likely and is also part of the reason for the slight eastward movement.Its possible with the Baltic trough moving a little more south east than south than there could be further eastwards movement in the forecast, but its unlikely to be far at this forecast range. I not too happy though with the modelling of the transition to extra tropical and think the warm core will only breakdown just south of Ireland, increasing the risks of stronger gusting winds for southern Ireland.Looking at satellite pictures  (eumetsat) then there has been a slight upper jet to the north of Ophelia slowly wrapping around to the west , which has caused the hurricane to spread out eastwards. This is causing some sheer and perhaps a little dry air to be drawn within, so we should expect a little weakening and perhaps a slight eastward shift again.
      While focus is drawn to Ireland we should note that with many trees still with considerable foliage across England then even moderate winds could cause some disruption. Equally some parts of the UK are already fairly water soaked so a strong deluge of rain could cause some localized flooding issues.
      Lastly a couple of forecast images from GFS which show how the storm will be wrapped by a small jet streak to its east, with divergence aloft ahead of that streak. Whether its a hurricane, hybrid or plain autumn storm, this probably means rapid cyclogenesis as it approaches Ireland  (Deepening of the low).

    hgt300.png

    windvector.png

    gfs_gusts_eur72.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

    In all my years here this has been the single most fun and slightly surreal storm to follow.

     

    Will be a long time before the National Hurricane Center will have any reason to be interested in this part of the world again.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    Thanks @BrickFielder top top post! :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Wind, Thunder, Snow, warm sunshine!
  • Location: Upminster, Essex
    7 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

    It won't become a hurricane again, all characteristics of a hurricane are gone as it hits cooler water way south of Ireland, eyewall etc. But it will still give hurricane strength winds. 

    I fail to see how it would have lost all the "characteristics" of a hurricane if the winds remain at hurricane-force or there or there abouts and therefore potentially cause equally as much carnage?...

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  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    40 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

    In all my years here this has been the single most fun and slightly surreal storm to follow.

     

    Will be a long time before the National Hurricane Center will have any reason to be interested in this part of the world again.

    Indeed. If anyone told me that my house would be in the middle of a hurricane warning cone I would have thought they were mad.

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    Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
    Just now, mountain shadow said:

    Indeed. If anyone told me that my house would be in the middle of a hurricane warning cone I would have thought they were mad.

    Just seen a guy on the Weather Channel just after saying we "could be dealing with a land falling hurricane on the coast of Ireland, believe it or not!" - that's off the new NHC guidance. 

    Welcome to the onion zone
     

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    Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
    9 minutes ago, knightstorm87 said:

    I fail to see how it would have lost all the "characteristics" of a hurricane if the winds remain at hurricane-force or there or there abouts and therefore potentially cause equally as much carnage?...

    The impacts will be the same but the actual "fuelling" of the system will no longer be tropical. It will not be a hurricane on impact.

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    Posted
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral
  • Weather Preferences: Summer: warm, humid, thundery. Winter: mild, stormy, some snow.
  • Location: Heswall, Wirral

    As soon as the storm develops into a system of fronts it is no longer a 'Hurricane'. However I suspect it will still contain tropical sourced air around the core even as it hits Ireland. That would make Shroedingers cat even more confused.

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    4 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

    As soon as the storm develops into a system of fronts it is no longer a 'Hurricane'. However I suspect it will still contain tropical sourced air around the core even as it hits Ireland. That would make Shroedingers cat even more confused.

    Does the mere act of observation change it from a hurricane to a  post tropical storm ?? :rofl:

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