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  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
    11 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

    Some answers in here https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/8491-whats-all-this-quotits-not-a-hurricanequot-stuff-ophelia-heads-our-way A hurricane (cyclone) can turn extra tropical but not back again to a warm core hurricane. 

    Great article.

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    their armoured vehicles are being made ready-

    I'm pretty sure the sky turning yellow is the met office trying out a new warning system after some backlash. 

    Looking forward to my trip to #Ireland

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    3 minutes ago, Dave BM said:

    Hi All,

    I've been a forum lurker for some time now,

    I've always found that this site is a mine of information,

    I live near a small town called Oranmore, on the west coast of ireland, its close to Galway city,

    I'm both looking forward to and a bit worried about Ophelia! I'll be battening down the hatches come this weekend!

    I've included two links to local weather stations here:

     

    http://www.galwaycityweather.com/

     

    http://weather.nuigalway.ie/

     

    Cheers, Dave.

     

     

     

     

    Nice one cheers for the links Dave. Enjoy and be safe :drunk:

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

    She's looking very disorganized now could be ewrc coming up.

    ft0.gif

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
    48 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

    Some answers in here https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/8491-whats-all-this-quotits-not-a-hurricanequot-stuff-ophelia-heads-our-way A hurricane (cyclone) can turn extra tropical but not back again to a warm core hurricane. 

    Cheers Jo for the interesting and succinct post

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    Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.

    Has there really been a shift west? The track seems to be closer to Scotland? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    3 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

    Has there really been a shift west? The track seems to be closer to Scotland? 

    still up in the air, nobody has said shift west In don't think. little change overnight really.

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    Posted
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow.
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL

    What an interesting wind storm heading for the west of UK, It looks set to bring powerful cat 1 hurricane gusts of wind!

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    I am glad to see that the 0z GFS has corrected eastwards but the UKMO is my favourite with widespread gales for much of the UK.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    4 minutes ago, karyo said:

    I am glad to see that the 0z GFS has corrected eastwards but the UKMO is my favourite with widespread gales for much of the UK.

    3 models track it further east now, my hunch says that's where it will end up. possibly a bit of hope persuading my hunch. 

     

    orphelia.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

    3 models track it further east now, my hunch says that's where it will end up. possibly a bit of hope persuading my hunch. 

     

    orphelia.png

    My ideal would be if she tracks through the Irish sea but that's unlikely. Still every little eastward shift helps. :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.

    Met Office have issued a yellow warning for wind on Tuesday, focused on Central Scotland stretching down to Northern England, and of course Northern Ireland. 

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/mobile/warnings/uk

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    Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
    4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

    3 models track it further east now, my hunch says that's where it will end up. possibly a bit of hope persuading my hunch. 

     

    orphelia.png

    That 'kink' in the path to turn it more northerly looks odd to me, especially with the strength of the storm but who knows really. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    Just now, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

    That 'kink' in the path to turn it more northerly looks odd to me, especially with the strength of the storm but who knows really. 

    probably the influence of the Euro high, so will naturally track around that I think. Damn that Euro High :diablo:

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    https://twitter.com/_chrisfawkes/status/918768199986016257

    59e085d9ee1b3_chrisfawkes.thumb.png.da70e68ed81c69e5c41f3610e7470028.png

    Edited by karlos1983
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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    Given all the model outputs/possible tracking outcomes I think the storm will make land-full over South-Western Ireland and track Northwards along the Western Coast. I'll be surprised if she manages to move any further East because of the damn Euro High. It would have been nice (from a weather enthusiasts perspective) to see this storm run along the South-Coast.

    Here's the 00z ECM storm track ensembles. If you've not used the WX site before, it's a really good resource.

    http://wxcharts.eu/?model=gfs&region=europe&chart=overview&run=06&step=144&plottype=10&lat=51.500&lon=-0.250&skewtstep=0

     

    storm_tracks_144.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, and winter storms
  • Location: Bexhill-on-sea, East Sussex (11.8M ASL)
    20 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

    Given all the model outputs/possible tracking outcomes I think the storm will make land-full over South-Western Ireland and track Northwards along the Western Coast. I'll be surprised if she manages to move any further East because of the damn Euro High. It would have been nice (from a weather enthusiasts perspective) to see this storm run along the South-Coast.

    Here's the 00z ECM storm track ensembles. If you've not used the WX site before, it's a really good resource.

    http://wxcharts.eu/?model=gfs&region=europe&chart=overview&run=06&step=144&plottype=10&lat=51.500&lon=-0.250&skewtstep=0

     

    storm_tracks_144.jpg

    Arrgh I hate the euro high!

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Yellow wind warning issued for Central, Tayside & Fife, Grampian, North East England, North West England, Northern Ireland, SW Scotland, Lothian Borders, Strathclyde & Yorkshire & Humber on Tuesday

    Between 00:05 Tue 17th and 18:00 Tue 17th

    A spell of very windy weather is likely on Tuesday in association with ex-Ophelia. Road, rail, air and ferry services might be affected, with a slight chance of longer journeys times and some roads and bridges could close. There is a slight chance that power cuts may occur, with the potential to affect other services, such as mobile phone coverage.

    Chief Forecaster's assessment

    Very strong winds are forecast to affect northern parts of the UK during Tuesday. Southwesterly winds are most likely to gust between 50 and 60 mph across much of the warning area with the potential for gusts of 70 mph across the Central Belt of Scotland and parts of Northeast England. The strongest winds could potentially coincide with the morning rush hour. Heavy rain is also possible in association with this system with western Scotland most prone at this stage.

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Livingston (ish)
  • Location: Livingston (ish)
    38 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

    Met Office have issued a yellow warning for wind on Tuesday, focused on Central Scotland stretching down to Northern England, and of course Northern Ireland. 

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/mobile/warnings/uk

    Looks like Tuesday is gonna be the worst day for me unless Ophelia tracks a little further east. I'm just outside the Monday warning area.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    I would say with little to steer the system east before it reaches N Ireland, there is little chance now of it being modelled far enough east to impact for example my location (Dorset Coast) , 

    jet.thumb.png.0f4eff5476513769e6f82a1609f56422.pngprsure.thumb.png.a180e2f5d4d7e8a740169e6fa99e4f1b.png

    So a track over or west of the Irish coast looks the form horse now IMO, then gets picked up by the jet and crosses Northern UK. 

    I think Ireland is more or less nailed on now to get stormy conditions on Monday afternoon/evening. So people on the south and West coast should start paying close attention to Ophelia's track as they are likely to take the brunt of this.

     

    Edited by karlos1983
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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Brighton
    3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

    I would say with little to steer the system east before it reaches N Ireland, there is little chance now of it being modelled far enough east to impact for example my location (Dorset Coast) , 

    jet.thumb.png.0f4eff5476513769e6f82a1609f56422.pngprsure.thumb.png.a180e2f5d4d7e8a740169e6fa99e4f1b.png

    So a track over or west of the Irish coast looks the form horse now IMO, then gets picked up by the jet and crosses Northern UK. 

    I think Ireland is more or less nailed on now to get stormy conditions on Monday afternoon/evening. So people on the south and West coast should start paying close attention to Ophelia's track as they are likely to take the brunt of this.

     

    Would I be clutching at straws to hope here in Brighton?  It would be a dream!  I have been waiting for Autumn since Winter :)

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    Just now, Alpine glow said:

    Would I be clutching at straws to hope here in Brighton?  It would be a dream!  I have been waiting for Autumn since Winter :)

    Even less likely for your Locale, enjoy the warmth, you'll wonder what all the fuss is about I would imagine.

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Brighton
    1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

    Even less likely for your Locale, enjoy the warmth, you'll wonder what all the fuss is about I would imagine.

    I'm still hoping, ha!

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    Posted
  • Location: Chorlton, 29m asl.
  • Location: Chorlton, 29m asl.
    2 hours ago, booferking said:

    Co Kerry sees the worst of the winds 102 gusts batten down the hatches tralee.:shok:

    hurricane.png

    There's a load of quite tall mountains on that peninsula, hence the high winds. Mount Brandon is 952m.

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Galway city, west coast of Ireland
  • Location: Near Galway city, west coast of Ireland

    Hi all,

    Just found a link to a nearby (to me anyway!) weather station:

    http://www.oranmoreweather.com/

    It should supply reasonably detailed information during the Ophelia event as Oranmore town

    is located at the inner end of Galway bay on Ireland's west coast

    There is a scroll bar on the right hand side which slides to reveal graphs and such like.

    I'm sure similar on line stations exist for counties Kerry & Cork...could be a way to monitor Ophelia as she rumbles along!

    Cheers,

    Dave.

    PS: Thanks to Karl for the welcome!

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