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Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    Never seen such a feature on the GFS take of Ophelia on this mornings  00z

    Netweather GFS Image

     

    Incredible stuff, but could this situation become a more common thing in the future?

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    their armoured vehicles are being made ready-

    I'm pretty sure the sky turning yellow is the met office trying out a new warning system after some backlash. 

    Looking forward to my trip to #Ireland

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    ECM 00Z keeps Ophelia strong as it hits Ireland (90-100mph gusts on SW coast here) but not impacting the Welsh/NW English coast as much as yesterday (70mph the general max) - the strongest windfield is slightly further west

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    00z EC and UKMO still appear to be tracking ex-Ophelia up far western side of Ireland, hard to tell if landfall given 12hr positions, but ECMWF will update on Icelandic weather service in 6hr positions around 8am, so will find out then.

     

    ECMOPEU00_96_1.png

    UKMOPEU00_96_1.png

    Fortunately, the depression looks to fill quickly as it passes over far west of Ireland.

    Edited by Nick F
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    18 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

    Well as is regularly the case a mix of both models this morning.

    In general not as severe more standard fare imo

    Good old January always full of nonsense. Yes a Cat2 5mph short of cat3 hurricane set to make landfall in Ireland around the strength of a cat 1 hurricane wind speed wise is standard fare.

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    Posted
  • Location: Mallusk, Glengormley - 510ft
  • Location: Mallusk, Glengormley - 510ft
    16 hours ago, knocker said:
     
    I'm in Belfast - wonder should I take down the Gazebo :pardon:I've been using it to cover bbq are coming into wet months - it's not even mine - I borrowed it. Hmm probably will have to just incase. it's tied to fence (new 2 yrs) and pegged in two side of it lol!
     
    P.S - I'm shattered from not sleeping so I don't know if this made sense.

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    At 1800 Monday the ecm has it 968mb just west of Kerry and at 00 980mb on the Donegal coast so it will traverse Connemara and Mayo en route. It has the strongest winds, very briefly possibly gusting 80kts, along the south west coast. But obviously this depends entirely on the precise track.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

    Presumably if they remake her 'storm brian' she will become the first transgender storm in history ??

    'Remake' ?  Meant rename and the answer is that they won't 

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    Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

    Coming exactly on the anniversary of the the great storm/hurricane of 1987 bizzare but true.

    Seems to be wavering back and for 0z chart further east.

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    Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire

    This hurricane season is officially insane.

    NHC.thumb.PNG.47f3358344c2b64c3b3f466115da991c.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    Well, I now can't go to Ireland due to work. I am having to go to Wales on Monday - Tuesday, so I for one hope it tracks further east than expected. It's not looking likely though. 

    I will be on the arrows tip 

    Wales.thumb.png.5e60116df8507675436830bc4531c08e.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
    59 minutes ago, Nick F said:

    00z EC and UKMO still appear to be tracking ex-Ophelia up far western side of Ireland, hard to tell if landfall given 12hr positions, but ECMWF will update on Icelandic weather service in 6hr positions around 8am, so will find out then.

     

    ECMOPEU00_96_1.png

    UKMOPEU00_96_1.png

    Fortunately, the depression looks to fill quickly as it passes over far west of Ireland.

    18b6b9c5739a9728dbf8c9052236c5eb.thumb.png.c2e223b8ff874dbe8199e53a1c2c1363.png

    Just a sneak peek from the EC for you.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    2 minutes ago, Nick L said:

    18b6b9c5739a9728dbf8c9052236c5eb.thumb.png.c2e223b8ff874dbe8199e53a1c2c1363.png

    Just a sneak peek from the EC for you.

    963mb :shok:

    Portmagee shout looking good :crazy:

    Edited by karlos1983
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    Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
    1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

    963mb :shok:

    A couple of frames back it's 957mb.

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    Posted
  • Location: West Malvern, West Midlands, 280m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow! Severe storms.
  • Location: West Malvern, West Midlands, 280m ASL
    8 minutes ago, Nick L said:

    This hurricane season is officially insane.

    NHC.thumb.PNG.47f3358344c2b64c3b3f466115da991c.PNG

    Can I ask a rookie question: Where does a post-tropical cyclone like Ophelia get the energy from to become a hurricane again, in our part of the world? Are the waters warm enough or is it something else entirely?  And not looking good for Ireland or Scotland, at this rate.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    1 minute ago, Nick L said:

    A couple of frames back it's 957mb.

    Do the numbers denote Sustained wind speed presumably Nick?

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    1 minute ago, Barbmac said:

    Can I ask a rookie question: Where does a post-tropical cyclone like Ophelia get the energy from to become a hurricane again, in our part of the world? Are the waters warm enough or is it something else entirely?  And not looking good for Ireland or Scotland, at this rate.

    It won't become a hurricane again, all characteristics of a hurricane are gone as it hits cooler water way south of Ireland, eyewall etc. But it will still give hurricane strength winds. 

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    Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian
    3 minutes ago, Barbmac said:

    Can I ask a rookie question: Where does a post-tropical cyclone like Ophelia get the energy from to become a hurricane again, in our part of the world? Are the waters warm enough or is it something else entirely?  And not looking good for Ireland or Scotland, at this rate.

    Some answers in here https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/8491-whats-all-this-quotits-not-a-hurricanequot-stuff-ophelia-heads-our-way A hurricane (cyclone) can turn extra tropical but not back again to a warm core hurricane. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: Cold & Snowy, Summer: Just not hot
  • Location: Aylesbury, Buckinghamshire
    3 minutes ago, Barbmac said:

    Can I ask a rookie question: Where does a post-tropical cyclone like Ophelia get the energy from to become a hurricane again, in our part of the world? Are the waters warm enough or is it something else entirely?  And not looking good for Ireland or Scotland, at this rate.

    With sea surface temperatures at our latitude, it won't be able to regain tropical characteristics. 

    3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

    Do the numbers denote Sustained wind speed presumably Nick?

    No they are gusts, but very sparse gridpoints! The highest gust I can find on the EC from this is approx 90mph.

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    Posted
  • Location: West Malvern, West Midlands, 280m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow! Severe storms.
  • Location: West Malvern, West Midlands, 280m ASL

    Thanks for your answers, karlos, Jo and Nick. :)  Your article is most helpful, Jo, I have some reading to do! :D

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