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  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

    It's a long shot but increasing chatter that this may, just may, make it to landfall as a Cat 1 as unbelievable as that sounds! Would want to be some sprint!

     

    DL-AtLQW4AAxL9E.jpg

     

    Going to be fascinating to watch whatever happens, albeit worrying for many.

    Edited by The Eagle
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    their armoured vehicles are being made ready-

    I'm pretty sure the sky turning yellow is the met office trying out a new warning system after some backlash. 

    Looking forward to my trip to #Ireland

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    Arpege 12z looks alarming the wind field of extreme winds on the southern flank is very wide this could have widespread impacts, all you can do is hope it tracks west of Ireland however this is becoming less likely.

    image.thumb.jpeg.21f2619a4da3a28b332e243712cbfa53.jpeg

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Skelmersdale
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: 6-10 degrees. Spring 12-16 degrees. Summer 17-22 degrees.
  • Location: Skelmersdale

    MLNYSje.thumb.gif.e7333af25ecc7ca0d815d9081190a642.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

    Slight shift east on 18z gfs - but it remains the most westerly push with the center staying just off-shore.

    Edited by The Eagle
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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    18z keeps the core west of Ireland. This is by no means nailed. A lot will depend on when the hurricane interacts with the trough. Earlier will take a west track, later will bring a tracker further east. Chris Fawkes explanation on Twitter. Not my words. 

    Anyway 18z gfs 

    85C38A2D-31D5-430F-9A6B-1BD19BAF5C75.thumb.png.b1d148899567c85cc742367ea2e637fa.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    The unusually active hurricane season seems to be not going out with a whimper, as Ophelia now being a cat. 2 storm makes it the strongest an Atlantic hurricane that has been this far east (35.5°W) this late in calendar year on record.

    18z still keeping Ophelia well west of Ireland, the 12z European models (UKMET-G, ECMWF and ARPEGE) tracking Ophelia over Ireland, be interesting if the Euros back west in the morning runs!

    Have updated my blog recently which is tracking Ophelia: 

    https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/8492-tracking-hurricane-ophelia-heading-our-way-as-an-ex-tropical-storm

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    Posted
  • Location: Skelmersdale
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: 6-10 degrees. Spring 12-16 degrees. Summer 17-22 degrees.
  • Location: Skelmersdale
    2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

    The unusually active hurricane season seems to be not going out with a whimper, as Ophelia now being a cat. 2 storm makes it the strongest an Atlantic hurricane that has been this far east (35.5°W) this late in calendar year on record.

    18z still keeping Ophelia well west of Ireland, the 12z European models (UKMET-G, ECMWF and ARPEGE) tracking Ophelia over Ireland, be interesting if the Euros back west in the morning runs!

    Have updated my blog recently which is tracking Ophelia: 

    https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/8492-tracking-hurricane-ophelia-heading-our-way-as-an-ex-tropical-storm

    I pray they do. Those poor people might want to start kissing that blarney stone now.

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    It would be kinda cool to witness the first ever official hurricane to hit the UK, it'd definitely be something that goes down in history. Though I highly doubt it will, all forecasts/projections show it hitting as a post tropical cyclone, though saying that did anyone expect it to reach Cat 2 status? 

    This is fascinating! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hampshire Snow Hoper
  • Location: Hampshire Snow Hoper

    Much interest and understandably so,but being 700ft ASL in Kent,in 1987 was not a place for the faint hearted I can tell you,interesting times but hopefully with everyone safe.

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    I've only just caught up with all this, in fact I had no idea what was going on until I popped on here for ten minutes. If I didn't have the family duties that I currently have, i would have gone over to Ireland for this. I don't know how models really cope these days, but I do know they used to struggle when storms came in or developed in the area that is currently being modeled.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
    Posted
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Thundery summers, very snowy winters! Huge Atlantic Storms!
  • Location: Port Glasgow, Inverclyde, Scotland. 200m ASL.

    Would greater strength push it further east? In terms of forcing the euro high. 

    Edited by Ross Andrew Hemphill
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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Ophelia has strengthened further apparently gfs 00z has it going up the western side ireland. A shift towards yesterdays ecm.  Local forecast have increased gusts to 42 mph. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Met Office now saying keep watching for updates

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    Not precise agreement between the latest fax and this morning's gfs vis depth and position although both running up close to the west Irish coast so the strongest winds across Ireland and western Scotland

    At 12 Monday it's still phased with the Atlantic trough, but about to part company, as the latter is in the process of splitting and Ophelia to start tracking north east and quite rapidly filling.

    PPVM89.thumb.gif.2879b1289b37a77d729b7075b9adde57.gifgfs_ptype_slp_eur3_15.thumb.png.c0bb7187e825a009b75a37e4f465c7e8.pnggfs_z500a_natl_15.thumb.png.48a96a6d8ef48c517e5c91a603ffba38.png

    gfs_z500a_natl_17.thumb.png.0eb9d6b872202a4c253ef2ed2b5acd70.pnggfs_z500a_natl_19.thumb.png.703e25d9f45818950de5d20a4226b4c1.png

    The 850mb temp anomaly quite interesting showing the warm 'core' and the WAA to the east and the wrap around cold trough.

    gfs_t850a_natl_15.thumb.png.7c73cf00756b39fe55731e2b74e7eab7.png

    Edited by knocker
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