Hurricane Ophelia

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Just now, Summer Sun said:

Hurricane force winds but not officially a Hurricane now

Cheers- I presumed it must be as there was a significant change in structure on visible satellite but I'm not an expert!

[Jo Farrow]

oh #27  NHC says still a hurricane

[Wavey50]

5 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Related to the hurricane, I have a report from a non-meteorological forum on which I post meteorological info. of an electrical storm over mid-Cornwall.  Presumably, this is part of the convective structure establishing itself?

Looks like there have been a few lightning strikes around Truro / St Austell in the last few minutes.  See:  https://www.lightningmaps.org

 

[Mokidugway]

Just now, Jo Farrow said:

oh #27  NHC says still a hurricane

[Frosty hollows]

Just now, Jo Farrow said:

oh #27  NHC says still a hurricane

Bloody hell

[Windchime72]

weather pattern changing here, after a week of wet south westerlies, the clouds are coming from a north westerly direction. Change is afoot...

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 minute ago, Jo Farrow said:

oh #27  NHC says still a hurricane

[Summer Sun]

Soo the met say it isn't a Hurricane but NHC do

Edited October 15, 2017 by Summer Sun

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

oh #27  NHC says still a hurricane

Holy sheet,i have just winded myself

[RichmondWeather]

2 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

oh #27  NHC says still a hurricane

This is what annoys me, why isn't the national hurricane centre working with european weather organisation. Compared to early warning in the US, where they literally have days to prepare,  what we have seen is utterly appalling. 

[Evening thunder]

Well tbh, I don't think it will be quite as bad as a few posts in here this evening.

I'm struggling to see Northern Ireland upgrading to a red warning tbh, unless I've missed something (which is possible!) and some models are showing far higher winds than many. The GFS only has gusts up to the 60's for most of NI and maybe the 70's on the Irish sea coasts.

For southern (maybe central) Ireland I think a red warning (on the UK Met Office scheme) would be justified, where 80-90mph gusts seem realistic (though a few models show the chance of 100mph gusts reaching the south coast with slightly slower weakening of the exceptional winds progged to the south of Ireland?

For other areas, not severe enough for a red warning IMO with most models generally showing 70-80 mph gusts max (excluding the usual topographically enhanced gusts/super exposed sites) For some of these areas, more severe storms have happened recently, (e.g. 12th Feb 2014). 
No models that I can see suggest 90-100 mph gusts widespread up Irish sea coasts like a recent post said...

So I don't think it will be comparable to 1987 for most (Shoreham had a 115mph gust then (over 130mph recorded in N France)), except Southern Ireland has a chance of getting close if some high res models are correct, even if not, don't get me wrong, it will be a severe storm that needs taking seriously there (Edit: then I see Nick L's post..lol)

Though I was a bit surprised that the western fringes of Wales weren't given an amber warning though, given models showing 70-80mph gusts and very large waves, but the Met Office are bigger experts than me.

Personally I wish I could get myself to Pembrokeshire or similar for tomorrow as 75 mph gusts and very large seas could be quite spectacular.

Edited October 15, 2017 by Evening thunder

[Fiona Robertson]

7 minutes ago, Polar Bear said:

Yep agreed .. although this one has had leg surgery and is on box rest.. tough call. 

I can't leave mine out. My field is almost standing water and the only shelter is a line of trees that face SW so they'd be pretty exposed. Also very thin soil which is currently saturated and field bounded by major road and railway line. Any tree down on the fence and I could be looking at a major RTA or train derailment. In the past I've had to spend the night on the stables with them to help keep them calm. Problem is my 14.2 bombproof mare died and I have on loan a 16.2 flighty ISH to keep my spooky boy company. The bombproof mare was great at keeping the wee guy calm, he looks for reassurance. I can see a night in the stables is probably on the cards for me.

[Jen Beachcomber]

25 minutes ago, coldfingers1 said:

Hi Polar Bear, I agree, really worrying. I also have relatives in Pembroke dock area with a small baby, I really hope they will be OK. High chance of power cuts at very least.

Hi coldfingers1 I live in Pembroke, At the most we will get 70+ mph wind gusts more so on the coast than in Pembroke Dock, Trees may come down and as I recall for the last time we had storms this intense we kept our power and were ok. By Tuesday we will at the most be "mopping up" I sympathise with your worry, I'm sure your folks will be fine and if they want to listen to whats going on to tune into Radio Pembrokeshire, it's brilliant for when a storm is coming in. It's going to get a bit blustery for a while tomorrow and the Cleddau Bridge will probably shut. I'm sure they will be safe. I certainly don't want to make light of the situation but I'm sure we'll all be ok, just inconvenienced. Me (the mad bugger that I am) am planning to go down Freshwest to see what the storm surge brings... Hugs to you x 

[benb]

4 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

oh #27  NHC says still a hurricane

A hurricane?! Still? Less than 500 miles from my house.

[Mark wheeler]

11 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Related to the hurricane, I have a report from a non-meteorological forum on which I post meteorological info. of an electrical storm over mid-Cornwall.  Presumably, this is part of the convective structure establishing itself?

Yep .

[bradymk]

ECM Ensemble gusts for Pembrokeshire tomorrow. A mean of 78mph in afternoon but still some members much higher than this. 60mph-65mph gusts common in the winter here but 80mph is rare away from coast, particularly with some foliage on trees. 

[J-Man]

10 minutes ago, draztik said:

?

This is Newtownards in the East of Province, where my family is located. Mean wind a lot higher than 29mph.

I was looking at this.

 

[The Eagle]

6 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

oh #27  NHC says still a hurricane

Oh

[Summer Sun]

As of 9pm

Max Sustained Winds: 85 mph

Pressure: 971 mb

[The Eagle]

 

[Jo Farrow]

I've told the Met Office team, so someone will hopefully address that on their social media, at least

[matt111]

Guessing the sudden temperature rise here in the last 30 minutes is something to do with Ophelia? 

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

So what's the truth? Still a hurricane or not?! 

[andymusic]

2. Individuals are urged to not focus on the exact track of Ophelia
since strong winds and heavy rainfall will extend well outside of
the NHC forecast cone.

 

[Mark wheeler]

https://mobile.twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/919667092445716480