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1 minute ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

There's always the option of staying over at the airport Terminal, not quite 5-star but at least there's shelter, toilets, and food.

See??? You want to go, it's possibly a once in a lifetime chance, you'll regret it all your days if you don't go, you might never get another chance, this is special, this is epic, this is amazing!!! Am I helping? :rofl: 

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ex-Katria in 2011 was quite a rush, not as powerful as Ophelia is expected to be but with Katia the benefit was being able to step-outside and walk a few minutes to the local reservoir to feel the impact of the winds. It's definitely something you don't forget, especially how it's so 'tropical' given the majority of the time here in the Peaks when the wind blows it brings along with it the windchill factor.

I'll have a better idea of what plan to execute by Saturday morning, if the trend takes Ophelia continually eastwards again then i'm likely to jump on the train to Holyhead and intercept the gales when they begin the NEly turn towards Stornoway.

https://www.liveleak.com/view?i=8b3_1315837224

 

Edited by SNOW_JOKE

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The Met Office are absolutely right to issue this warning. I checked all 50 ECM ensembles (as you do) and virtually all of them build this storm up to between 90mph and 125mph strength in proximity to Ireland, and perhaps 30% of the ensembles see some of the strongest winds extending up the Irish Sea. Interestingly another potential path is round the west of Ireland and then back across to western Scotland. This is like almost no other storm in a generation.

Edited by Man With Beard

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Ophelia is expected to transition to a hurricane-force post-
tropical cyclone by Monday when it moves near Ireland and the
United Kingdom.  While post-tropical Ophelia will likely bring some
direct impacts from wind and heavy rain to portions of these areas,
as well as dangerous marine conditions, given the forecast
uncertainty at these time ranges it is too soon to determine the
exact magnitude, timing and location of the impacts.  Residents in
Ireland and the United Kingdom should monitor the progress of
Ophelia for the next several days.  For more information on local
impacts, residents of Ireland should refer to products issued by Met
Eireann and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products
issued by the Met Office.

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1 minute ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

ex-Katia in 2005 was quite a rush, not as powerful as Ophelia is expected to be but with Katia the benefit was being able to step-outside and walk a few minutes to the local reservoir to feel the impact of the winds. It's definitely something you don't forget, especially how it's so 'tropical' given the majority of the time here in the Peaks when the wind blows it brings along with it the windchill factor.

I'll have a better idea of what plan to execute by Saturday morning, if the trend takes Ophelia continually eastwards again then i'm likely to jump on the train to Holyhead and intercept the gales when they begin the NEly turn towards Stornoway.

So get organising the others, make tentative plans, load up the boot with Guinness... and GO! GO! GO! Ireland seems a safe bet.

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Looking at the storm as a hybrid between hurricane and extra tropical storm might give some different insights particularly looking at it as extra tropical. In this case we have a jet streak looping around the storm as it moves up from off the coast of Spain to France with divergence aloft ahead of the storm. This would suggest rapid cyclogenesis  (deepening of the low) as it approaches the UK.As the storm moves near to the coast of Ireland that jet streak swings across England. Strongest winds for a hurricane are near the eye whilst the strongest winds from a non tropical storm are under the jet stream. Looking at the ECMWF 850mb winds shows wind strengths in excess of 70 knots at 850MB (That is 90mph winds at 5000 feet) across much of the UK. Now ECMWF brings the low closer to the UK than some other models and winds at the surface will be a lot less than that, but it is worth bearing in mind. So we must be careful not to assign purely tropical attributes to this storm.Having said that Southern Ireland looks to have the brunt of this according to current modelling.

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11 minutes ago, Andy92 said:
Ophelia is expected to transition to a hurricane-force post-
tropical cyclone by Monday when it moves near Ireland and the
United Kingdom.  While post-tropical Ophelia will likely bring some
direct impacts from wind and heavy rain to portions of these areas,
as well as dangerous marine conditions, given the forecast
uncertainty at these time ranges it is too soon to determine the
exact magnitude, timing and location of the impacts.  Residents in
Ireland and the United Kingdom should monitor the progress of
Ophelia for the next several days.  For more information on local
impacts, residents of Ireland should refer to products issued by Met
Eireann and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products
issued by the Met Office.

Absolutely extraordinary to see this type of wording in a Forcecast Discussion from the NHC. 

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17 minutes ago, Andy92 said:
Ophelia is expected to transition to a hurricane-force post-
tropical cyclone by Monday when it moves near Ireland and the
United Kingdom.  While post-tropical Ophelia will likely bring some
direct impacts from wind and heavy rain to portions of these areas,
as well as dangerous marine conditions, given the forecast
uncertainty at these time ranges it is too soon to determine the
exact magnitude, timing and location of the impacts.  Residents in
Ireland and the United Kingdom should monitor the progress of
Ophelia for the next several days.  For more information on local
impacts, residents of Ireland should refer to products issued by Met
Eireann and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products
issued by the Met Office.

:shok:

We have an earthquake hurricaine now:rofl:

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Hoping Ophelia somehow nudges eastwards just a little by 70mi by Sunday, if so then more of us in Wales and the NW would get some quite beefy gusts coming out from this. Affordability wise flights aren't much of an option unless I get a short-term loan (not ideal), and public transport will be unreliable getting back from Holyhead if the lines are blocked. It's times like this it's handy to have a driving license other than a provisional :sorry: although I am still looking at the options on the table in terms of getting somewhere more westwards for a intercept.

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I hope it's not to bad here ,the storm in 2005 cost me 10,000 quid in damage .

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5 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

Hoping Ophelia somehow nudges eastwards just a little by 70mi by Sunday, if so then more of us in Wales and the NW would get some quite beefy gusts coming out from this. Affordability wise flights aren't much of an option unless I get a short-term loan (not ideal), and public transport will be unreliable getting back from Holyhead if the lines are blocked. It's times like this it's handy to have a driving license other than a provisional :sorry: although I am still looking at the options on the table in terms of getting somewhere more westwards for a intercept.

Really? Am I the only one that wishes that Ophelia would simply sod-off into the North Atlantic and consequently die a death? Okay, I must be missing something?:D

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11 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

Hoping Ophelia somehow nudges eastwards just a little by 70mi by Sunday, if so then more of us in Wales and the NW would get some quite beefy gusts coming out from this. Affordability wise flights aren't much of an option unless I get a short-term loan (not ideal), and public transport will be unreliable getting back from Holyhead if the lines are blocked. It's times like this it's handy to have a driving license other than a provisional :sorry: although I am still looking at the options on the table in terms of getting somewhere more westwards for a intercept.

Stubborn GFS keeps her way west of Ireland just as the previous run did :nonono:

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Storms damage stuff , expensive stuff and insurance only goes so far so I hope it's a wet fart :D

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1 minute ago, karyo said:

Stubborn GFS keeps her way west of Ireland just as the previous run did :nonono:

Hopefully Nova Scotia west of Ireland  :rofl:

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Netweather 7-day forecast has the Peaks for 20-22'c on Sunday and Monday, so i'll take that even if the winds stay further west. Considering there's a drop-off Tuesday when it's back to high's of just 9'c again.

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2 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Storms damage stuff , expensive stuff and insurance only goes so far so I hope it's a wet fart :D

I don't care I want power and excitement! Bring me a hurricane!!! :drunk-emoji:

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Some seem to have forgotten this is a weather forum, bring on the full fury of mother nature I say.

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12Z UKMO is further east than the GFS with a track over Ireland and Scotland, though not as intense.

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2 minutes ago, radiohead said:

12Z UKMO is further east than the GFS with a track over Ireland and Scotland, though not as intense.

Yes, the UKMO is a beauty! :air_kiss:

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1 minute ago, karyo said:

Yes, the UKMO is a beauty! :air_kiss:

Yep will destroy loads of hip Manchester apartments :rofl:

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1 minute ago, Mokidugway said:

Yep will destroy loads of hip Manchester apartments :rofl:

Mine is east facing it should be fine! haha

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12 minutes ago, karyo said:

I don't care I want power and excitement! Bring me a hurricane!!! :drunk-emoji:

We don't get Hurricanes in the UK :wink::p

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5 minutes ago, radiohead said:

12Z ICON has gusts up to 180 km/h over SW Ireland.

iconeu_uk1-11-96-0_fwf1.png

 

Well that's blow a few leprechauns off their toadstools, to be sure to be sure..

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