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1 minute ago, J-Man said:

It will because some people will take risks. Stay in doors is best option to limit risk but people are people and will go out unnecessarily.

Agreed but unfortunately the wheels of commerce must keep turning and people will go about their daily lives as normal.

add to that the ones who chase the thrill and there will be a lot of people exposed to nature at its worst.

 I certainly wouldn't like to be driving a high sided truck over the top of Shap or Saddleworth Moor or walking along the sea front at Blackpool but unless the authorities prevent it, people will be risking injury or worse doing both.

 

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Just now, Mokidugway said:

For Ireland the worst storm since the night of the big wind :shok:

That was a devastating one, if I remember my history correctly 

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Just now, Mokidugway said:

For Ireland the worst storm since the night of the big wind :shok:

It's looking extremely likely once in a 50 year event :shok:

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4 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Hi Jo 

 

You wrote extensively about why hurricanes can't make landfall here. As you look at tonight sat are you having second thoughts?

This was for explanation of how you could clearly see evidence that the '87 storm was not a hurricane...

... but it applies to this situation to. It may be informative...
 

 

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Hello,

  Long time lurker (usually for snow we get so little here)

Sitting here by the old head of kinsale and peppering it slightly.

Hoping I have thought of everything and tied everything down, windows not boarded up, and hoping that is not a mistake.

Thanks for all the updates and analysis

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Just now, booferking said:

It's looking extremely likely once in a 50 year event :shok:

Maybe not a once in a fifty year event. Climate Change is happening. :(

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4 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Hi Jo 

 

You wrote extensively about why hurricanes can't make landfall here. As you look at tonight sat are you having second thoughts?

It can't be a hurricane but the academics don't really matter when you're facing the worst storm in a lifetime.

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16 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

my goodness

Hi Jo

 

Is Northern Ireland likely to be upgraded to Red too? I'm in co down.  

 

Thanks in advance. 

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3 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Hi Jo 

 

You wrote extensively about why hurricanes can't make landfall here. As you look at tonight sat are you having second thoughts?

My understanding was that Ophelia remained a hurricane in 22C waters. With my very limited and probably ignorant understanding, could the following situation lead to one getting close: a September hurricane on the back of a record breaking summer for western France (and hence higher SSTs??)?

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2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Anybody know if it's mandatory that schools close on red alerts.

Was wondering the same thing... i have family in NI, wondering if the kids will/should be in school tomorrow... I hope a red warning will make the decision for them.

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1 minute ago, draztik said:

Was wondering the same thing... i have family in NI, wondering if the kids will/should be in school tomorrow... I hope a red warning will make the decision for them.

I just wouldn’t take my kids in period. Trees could fall on the commute, etc. Pyjama day I’d say 

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Just now, Mokidugway said:

It can't be a hurricane but the academics don't really matter when you're facing the worst storm in a lifetime.

Arguably, the do. The expansion of the wind field means that even more people can be potentially screwed.

It's also important, or so my opinion goes anyway, that people realise that a Burns Day storm is an Ex-Ophelia, a Great Storm of 87, a St. Judes storm, is a potential Brian or Caroline. Many people in the UK have a silly idea that British Weather is great and it's only freak events that kill, to the point that an EF3 in Birmingham gets called "a mini-tornado", because the UK can't possibly have a real one. I figure that part of the job of the winter storm naming convention we have going on now is to convey this.

Extratropical cyclones, whether through cyclogenesis or transition, can be nasty, and misinformation kills. Heck, even to argue that to not call it a hurricane causes people to turn off fails at at least one hurdle; namely, that when you call it a hurricane, there's a swathe of people who turn off because, in that very British way, they see it as an exaggeration.

Or so my feelings go, anyway.

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5 minutes ago, booferking said:

Anybody know if it's mandatory that schools close on red alerts.

I know the first counties that first went red are.

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My girls are praying that this is the cw

1 minute ago, draztik said:

Was wondering the same thing... i have family in NI, wondering if the kids will/should be in school tomorrow... I hope a red warning will make the decision for them.

My girls are praying that this is the case, I have a lot of family in the South and glad to see that their schools are closed 

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With the way the wind keeps being forecast it would probably be wise to not open the schools in NI tomorrow, as it really starts to get bad in the afternoon.

Same also is true for the far bit of North West Wales, that could get some very high gusts as well - probably enough to warrant a red.

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Just now, nicktabs said:

 

Surprised it took so long for someone to tweet this. Looks more easterly as the storm approaches 

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6 minutes ago, booferking said:

Anybody know if it's mandatory that schools close on red alerts.

All schools and colleges in status red zones close

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Another Chris Fawkes tweet, needs watching in regard to sting jet formation. I believe it was the sting jet that formed in February 2014 that triggered the Red warning of wind for Pembrokeshire that day. 

EDAC3A83-BFAD-4E57-B34F-26A5472769D5.png

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1 minute ago, nicktabs said:

 

I do hope the Met Office aren't going to repeat the errors of 30 years ago. Come on, surely it's worth an orange before people go to bed tonight.

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1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

I know the first counties that first went red are.

All schools, Universities, etc are shut tomorrow across the whole of Ireland.

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Quite scary but good to see Ireland are taking this seriously.

IMG_6525.PNG

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'This is not the remnants of a hurricane, this IS a hurricane' - Red weather warning extended nationwide as Hurricane Ophelia barrels in

Red weather warning nationwide

Forecaster Evelyn Cusack: Weather event almost unprecedented for this country

Aer Lingus cancel over 50 flights

All schools and colleges to close

Schools told to close, and ESB on alert with winds of more than 130km/h expected Monday

Army on standby over fears storm damage could paralyse communities

http://www.independent.ie/irish-news/this-is-not-the-remnants-of-a-hurricane-this-is-a-hurricane-red-weather-warning-extended-nationwide-as-hurricane-ophelia-barrels-in-36228710.html

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2 minutes ago, crimsone said:

Arguably, the do. The expansion of the wind field means that even more people can be potentially screwed.

It's also important, or so my opinion goes anyway, that people realise that a Burns Day storm is an Ex-Ophelia, a Great Storm of 87, a St. Judes storm, is a potential Brian or Caroline. Many people in the UK have a silly idea that British Weather is great and it's only freak events that kill, to the point that an EF3 in Birmingham gets called "a mini-tornado", because the UK can't possibly have a real one. I figure that part of the job of the winter storm naming convention we have going on now is to convey this.

Extratropical cyclones, whether through cyclogenesis or transition, can be nasty, and misinformation kills. Heck, even to argue that to not call it a hurricane causes people to turn off fails at at least one hurdle; namely, that when you call it a hurricane, there's a swathe of people who turn off because, in that very British way, they see it as an exaggeration.

Or so my feelings go, anyway.

It's down to interpretation,from first hand I can say a  severe Northern European windstorm will rival any cat 2 hurricane maybe even a 3 .

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