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Still think its too early to be ramping up this too much in the media as it could miss the UK all together which some runs have hinted at.

On my very limited knowledge on systems as such as these, is the final positioning of this system going to be down to the strength of the Euro high or is it down to the positioning of any troughing in the Atlantic which suck?s the system northwards? So if the trough in the Atlantic is further Eastwards then the system will be further eastwards regardless of the strength of the Euro high?

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8 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Still think its too early to be ramping up this too much in the media as it could miss the UK all together which some runs have hinted at.

The ramping tonight involved the ever wonderful Michael Fish talking about how much more accurate we can be with our additional data these days, and driving home the idea that weather used to be only one day out, but now we can accurately forecast 4 days out... with a lot of talk of the 87 storm for good measure.

It was preparing the ground, basically.

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Michael Fish on the BBC news this evening and I still remember well the night of the Great Storm of '87 coming to our village in Kent, even though 30 years have passed, it was kind of burnt in the brain for life, as did the Burns Day Storm of 1990 and January 1987 snowstorm. Wow, wasn't '87 an exciting year for weather? Anyway, kind of eerie that another ex-hurricane like the Great Storm comes a-knocking exactly on the 30th anniversary, though probably not a UK landfall as it stands for now. 

But, nonetheless, seems surreal too that the NHC have a wind cone aimed at the British Isles

 

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11 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Michael Fish on the BBC news this evening and I still remember well the night of the Great Storm of '87 coming to our village in Kent, even though 30 years have passed, it was kind of burnt in the brain for life, as did the Burns Day Storm of 1990 and January 1987 snowstorm. Wow, wasn't '87 an exciting year for weather? Anyway, kind of eerie that another ex-hurricane like the Great Storm comes a-knocking exactly on the 30th anniversary, though probably not a UK landfall as it stands for now. 

But, nonetheless, seems surreal too that the NHC have a wind cone aimed at the British Isles

 

Wasn't the storm of 87 an entirely mid-latitude cyclone affair born in Biscay, though? It seems pretty settled in my mind that 87's Great Storm wasn't an ex-hurricane at all?

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4 minutes ago, crimsone said:

Wasn't the storm of 87 an entirely mid-latitude cyclone affair born in Biscay, though? It seems pretty settled in my mind that 87's Great Storm wasn't an ex-hurricane at all?

Yep, think you're right, it developed over Bay of Biscay rather than an ex-hurricane reintensifying, nonetheless still weird Ophelia makes potential landfall on the exact date of the 30th anniversary

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2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Yep, think you're right, it developed over Bay of Biscay rather than an ex-hurricane reintensifying, nonetheless still weird Ophelia makes potential landfall on the exact date of the 30th anniversary

I wonder if it'll feel as sticky as Gordon did  in Porthcawl :)

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So tempted to book a flight to Dublin,  hire a car and head south!! I mean when will we next see this happen? I’m not sure I can let it pass me by

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Hurricane charts for Ireland, never ever seen it before. Tempted it to drive south if it's a Cat 1 on arrival! Potentially historic.

 

*remain calm Eagle*

Edited by The Eagle
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Its not as beautiful as it was for a time yesterday when it was rapidly increasing size, but its still pretty and has an open eye again.

vis0-lalo.gif

Edited by cowdog

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I don't think I've ever seen such tightly packed isobars nearby to Ireland/UK on a FAX chart. Potential for this to land at Category 1 strength that sounds surreal in itself. 

 

image.thumb.png.e9752e33a4e9568a5511b150ead477cc.png

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Have seen very little in Irish media about this. Ireland going to get caught unaware or is it just being hyped up too much. Thankfully sheltered here from the South although from the South West wind could get funnelled up the valley.

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1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

I don't think I've ever seen such tightly packed isobars nearby to Ireland/UK on a FAX chart. Potential for this to land at Category 1 strength that sounds surreal in itself. 

 

image.thumb.png.e9752e33a4e9568a5511b150ead477cc.png

That's one beautiful spiral front, there. Does it still count as a warm seclusion when it's trying to spread out into an extratropical cyclone rather than trying to contract inwards as a matter of maturity??

Edited by crimsone

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6 minutes ago, Sussex Jules said:

Have seen very little in Irish media about this. Ireland going to get caught unaware or is it just being hyped up too much. Thankfully sheltered here from the South although from the South West wind could get funnelled up the valley.

Its 5 days out and Hurricanes change direction a lot at this far out. Tbh I think its going to go a lot further east than currently predicted as its possibly stronger than shown. Dvorak still is at the 5.2 / 5.3 levels i.e. borderline category 3.

Real guess on its path will probably be able to be made tomorrow once it starts making progress towards Europe.

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I am actually going to phone Michael Fish tonight, before his weekly Friday Netweather broadcast and ask him if a hurricane is coming.

Great Storm 30th anniversary Sun/Mon 

1210nhco.png

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Express is surpassing itself ( probably annoyed at its Boy who cried wolf situation) 

"Ophelia is barrelling towards the UK with winds of up to 5mph 

The hurricane is forecasted to travel northeast across England and northern Ireland towards Scotland by 8am on Monday.

It is currently barrelling east across the Atlantic Ocean... travelling at 3mph." Nicole Stinson

Which superlative will they use Sunday into Monday when it does get a move on northwards? 5mph and 3mph, that line is repeated twice #quality

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9 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

Express is surpassing itself ( probably annoyed at its Boy who cried wolf situation) 

"Ophelia is barrelling towards the UK with winds of up to 5mph 

The hurricane is forecasted to travel northeast across England and northern Ireland towards Scotland by 8am on Monday.

It is currently barrelling east across the Atlantic Ocean... travelling at 3mph." Nicole Stinson

Which superlative will they use Sunday into Monday when it does get a move on northwards? 5mph and 3mph, that line is repeated twice #quality

"Britain to be BATTERED by winds of up to 8 MpH!"

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11 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

Express is surpassing itself ( probably annoyed at its Boy who cried wolf situation) 

"Ophelia is barrelling towards the UK with winds of up to 5mph 

The hurricane is forecasted to travel northeast across England and northern Ireland towards Scotland by 8am on Monday.

It is currently barrelling east across the Atlantic Ocean... travelling at 3mph." Nicole Stinson

Which superlative will they use Sunday into Monday when it does get a move on northwards? 5mph and 3mph, that line is repeated twice #quality

 Is this for real? I wish there was something we could do about this sort of thing. Not just annoying but misleading and inaccurate. 

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21 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 Is this for real? I wish there was something we could do about this sort of thing. Not just annoying but misleading and inaccurate. 

they do it all the time, just have to not share the link, copy and paste an image is fine. then they don't get extra clicks. Express have apocalyptic weather headlines every few days so this bit won't stand out for them . So that is good. 

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Ophelia is forecast to remain in a light to moderate shear
environment and over marginal sea surface temperatures for the next
24-36 h, and the intensity forecast shows some strengthening during
this time in agreement with the guidance.  After that, the hurricane
is expected to move over cooler water.  As that happens, though,
interaction with the above-mentioned westerly trough should help
Ophelia keep its intensity.  Extratropical transition should begin
by 72 h, with Ophelia likely to become a hurricane-force baroclinic
low by 96 h.  The guidance is in good agreement that Ophelia should
affect Ireland, northern Ireland and Great Britain between 96-120 h
as a powerful extratropical low.

Although the track guidance keeps the center offshore of the
Azores, a tropical storm watch or warning could be needed for the
eastern Azores on Thursday because of the forecasted increase in
wind radii in the northwestern quadrant of the cyclone.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/0900Z 30.3N  35.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  12/1800Z 30.7N  35.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
 24H  13/0600Z 31.3N  34.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  13/1800Z 32.2N  32.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  14/0600Z 33.7N  28.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  15/0600Z 38.5N  20.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  16/0600Z 49.0N  13.5W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  17/0600Z 59.0N   7.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/120840.shtml

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8 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

they do it all the time, just have to not share the link, copy and paste an image is fine. then they don't get extra clicks. Express have apocalyptic weather headlines every few days so this bit won't stand out for them . So that is good. 

I would like it to become a rule on this forum to be honest! The fewer hits they get the better.

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Very interesting and exciting scenario for us here in the UK. 

Yes - probability is it will remain to the west, but without causing any hype there is a low probability it could nudge east and affect the UK as a whole. Low probability granted... but P6 on the ensembles shows this scenerio. So technically a 1/20 chance. I would normally not be too concerned at that but the models have always struggled positioning incoming system from the Bay of Biscay... if it did nudge east then you can't rule out a powerful and destructive storm for the UK. Low chance of this though... I'll listen to all you lot who are much more educated in this than me!! 

 

 

Edited by Matt Ralph
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Looking very impressive for a Cat 1 now...

 

vis0-lalo.gif

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Disappointing to see the GFS sticking to its guns and keeping the storm even further west than previous run.

The ECM is out on its own :nonono:

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Latest ECM Ensembles keeping it mostly to the West of Ireland too - I think chances are, we'll see it correct Westwards. With high pressure to our East, the models to like to underestimate the strength. We see this in winter all the time with Atlantic breakdowns.

Ireland is going to be the place to be for this one, I think

ENS.jpg

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