Jump to content

Recommended Posts

What i meant to say is that has there ever been a H=Hurricane symbol over the BI before,not that i know of.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

Still a hurricane as it makes landfall over Ireland? What the....

It's not a true hurricane by then, the circle is white, so post-tropical. Will still be severe weather if this comes off, and it is still a few days away. Can't truly say Ireland will be hit by a hurricane, from this chart. https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/8491-whats-all-this-quotits-not-a-hurricanequot-stuff-ophelia-heads-our-way 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, crimsone said:

To 

To be fair, it's looking worse and worse for the whole of Ireland. I suspect that if you had the track line turned on for that map, it'd run straight up the middle of Ireland.

.. and it's moving further and further east with each update.

DL9zaIfXUAAdftF.jpg

 

Not quite direct but getting closer!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, crimsone said:

To 

To be fair, it's looking worse and worse for the whole of Ireland. I suspect that if you had the track line turned on for that map, it's getting closer to running straight up the middle of Ireland.

.. and it's moving further and further east with each update.

Yes,the last one or two or so had it going to the west of Ireland,worrying times for them.

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

It's not a true hurricane by then, the circle is white, so post-tropical. Will still be severe weather if this comes off, and it is still a few days away. Can't truly say Ireland will be hit by a hurricane, from this chart. https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/8491-whats-all-this-quotits-not-a-hurricanequot-stuff-ophelia-heads-our-way 

Absolutely but to the common person on the south coast telling the difference may be difficult on current projections!

Edited by The Eagle
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just a thought,what info about Ophelia do we know if there is no recon flights?

 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

It's not a true hurricane by then, the circle is white, so post-tropical. Will still be severe weather if this comes off, and it is still a few days away. Can't truly say Ireland will be hit by a hurricane, from this chart. https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/8491-whats-all-this-quotits-not-a-hurricanequot-stuff-ophelia-heads-our-way 

I read the map wrong and got excited for a second, while wondering how the science of meteorology was somehow going to be broken :rofl:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Just a thought,what info about Ophelia do we know if there is no recon flights?

 

Satellite observations (water vapour, various infra red showing the cloud layers and organisation... and cloud top temperature... wind speeds can be measured and subsequently estimated, dvorak estimates including size/shape/organisation observations... basically, there are lots of tools. Nothing replaces the pinpoint accuracy of recon data, but there's still a lot that we can tell.)

Then there's ship reports, weather buoys, and all sorts of other such things.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

Absolutely but to the common person on the south coast telling the difference may be difficult on current projections!

 

agreed, if this does come off, it is just a technicality. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

I read the map wrong and got excited for a second, while wondering how the science of meteorology was somehow going to be broken :rofl:

maybe one day it will

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Jo Farrow said:

maybe one day it will

There are things we know we know, things we know we don't know, and excitingly, things we don't know that we don't know.

30 years before Ophelia reaching the UK, to the day, we discovered Sting Jets... and it was expensive, but awesome.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Fascinating but Crazy :mellow: Any rough idea what winds be like Sussex coast? Obvs it will be nothing compared to what Ireland looks to be getting

Edited by JK1
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Getting *really* nervous now.

Well the HWRF may be right. :shok:

nest_uv10m_35.thumb.png.353d30aa0892cffd164d7cacdd87445d.png

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
35 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

204406_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

 

It's looking worse and worse for South Ireland at the moment.

Well that blows some of the forecasts or, as I do not think they expected Ophelia to get to 100mph mean speeds. It's becoming a monster.

Any shift east brings the Irish Sea into play too - I think this update just about does that.

S+E+W Ireland, N Wales, N England, SW Scotland - watch out

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, knocker said:

Well the HRWF may be right. :shok:

nest_uv10m_35.thumb.png.353d30aa0892cffd164d7cacdd87445d.png

On that chart Knocker(if it comes off)is of no concern for Ireland to be fair:),it would be a relief if nothing else

i still think it is too early to pin this down,we await for tomorrows shenanigans:D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's strange reading everyone's posts, some excited some worried, but yet when I speak with those in Taiwan or the Philippines about Typhoons it's like they take it for granted, not always truly worried. A category 3 typhoon hit Taiwan a few months back as I was talking to a friend, who's city was in the typhoon's path, they said....it will be fine. A category 4 Typhoon hit the philippines a few years back (I lose track of names haha), yes schools were closed but people that I know there still got up in the morning and went to work....oh it's awesome when they step outside and livestream it, the wind makes a noise like that of a thousand ghosts racing past you, incredible. 

Edited by OPHELIA

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Thick southern white line over my location fog ?

Aye and mine! Note to self....don't go up Coniston Old Man on Monday!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

Seriously though what my neck of the woods looking at based on current projections? 

Worst case scenario, for you maybe 80 mph given you are slightly inland - on the current ECM, the angles aren't quite right for you so 50-60mph ish. If you want the maximum winds, you need a track up the Irish Sea and then wait till winds turn westerly - low chances right now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:

Is this a wind storm or heavy rain to :/

Rain looks to be more on the western flank of the storm( on graphics I’ve seen). Wind impacts will be greater than rain is suspect, because it will zip through pretty quickly. But that depends on location and the track. 

Edited by karlos1983

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the novel thing will be that it will feel very different from your usual storm if you reside on the eastern side of it.. it will feel decidedly muggy and warm. So although not a Hurricane, it will still contain some remnant tropical air both around the core, and being wrapped around the broad eastern flank. Fascinating stuff!

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now


  • Similar Content

    • By kar999
      These dangerous jellyfish have been reported on numerous beaches since storms Ophelia and Brian but found these small ones washed up on todays high tide at Morfa Bychan. (I believe they are Portuguese Man 'O War from seeing local photos.)
      There were also plenty of the usual jellyfish regularly washed up as well.
      Had to keep the dog away once spotted.

      Sadly there was another casualty of the storm washed up as well. Apparently seal pup casualties have been very high during the storms.
      Warning for viewing image: may upset some people.

    • By Spawney
      Strange looking orange sun due to the Saharan dust and smoke from the Spanish/Portuguese wildfires blown over by Ophelia.
    • By zaax
      The national weather forcast said Ophelia might hit us next week. Any comments?
       
      http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?cone#contents
    • By Vorticity0123
      Well, what a record-breaking day it has been in the Eastern and Central Pacific it has been today! As of speaking, three (3!) major hurricanes are roaming the Pacific waters at the same time, which is unpreceded in these areas. It is likely that this activity has been aided by the ongoing El Nino event, which has caused anomalously warm waters in the Central and Eastern Pacific. In this post I will provide some details about the cyclones individually, as well as a short look into the causes of this record-breaking activity.
       
      A sight to behold
       
      Below is an impressive satellite image showing all three systems in daylight:
       

      Satellite image of (from left to right) Kilo, Ignacio and Jimena. Courtesy: NOAA.
       
      All three systems show up clearly as well-organized hurricanes with an eye visible surrounded by intense convection.
       
      Kilo: a very stubborn cyclone
       
      The leftmost one, and probably also the one with the most interesting history, is hurricane Kilo. Just 24 hours ago, the system was still a 60-knot tropical storm, and now it has almost doubled its intensity up to 110 kt. Exactly what one could call rapid intensification. This make the system a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Scale.
       
      However, the most remarkable thing is that this system has been more noteworthy for its lack of intensification so far. During the past several days, Kilo was continuously forecast to become a hurricane, which it refuse to do, up to now. It stubbornly stayed as a tropical depression in seemingly favourable environment.
       
      Furthermore, its track has also defied forecasts quite a few times (also partly because it stayed so weak), as also alluded to by Somerset Squall in the thread about this cyclone. Originally, Kilo was forecast to strike Hawaii as a hurricane a week ago as well. Fortunately, this was not the case. Here's a link to the appropriate thread.
       
      https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83810-hurricane-kilo/
       
      Ignacio to possibly threaten Hawaii
       
      The center one is hurricane Ignacio. This cyclone developed in the Eastern Pacific and crossed 140 degrees longitude into the Central Pacific. Initially refusing to intensify quickly as a category 1 hurricane, Ignacio also put up a burst of rapid intensification. As of writing, the cyclone is now a category 4 hurricane with 120 knot winds.
       
      What is noteworthy about Ignacio is that it may be a threat for Hawaii in a few days, as it moves closer to the islands from the southwest. Currently, the CPHC forecasts the cyclone to pass safely to the north of the islands, only causing high surf among the islands.
       
      Another unusual thing about the forecast of Ignacio is that it is anticipated to stay a hurricane while passing north of the islands. Cyclones like Ignacio seldom retain hurricane intensity while passing to the north of the Hawaiian islands from the east.
       
      More to be found here:
       
      https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83855-major-hurricane-ignacio/
       
      Jimena to undergo eyewall replacement cycle
       
      Finally, the easternmost cyclone that can be seen here is Jimena. As of speaking, Jimena has already past her peak, and is now a 120 knot system, making it a category 4 hurricane. Her intial peak was reached 6 hours ago at 130 knots. Talking about rapid intensification, Jimena managed to get from 25 kt to 130 kt in merely 3 days!
       
      The NHC has noted that Jimena has developed concentric eyewalls, which means it is likely to embark onto an eyewall replacement cycle. In such a cycle, the inner eyewall weakens and dissipates, while a new, larger outer eyewall becomes better defined. In this process, the eye becomes much larger and the system itself usually weakens a bit. After completing such a cycle, a new round of intesification can begin assuming that favourable environmental conditions prevail. This could also be the case for Jimena. So far, the system is not forecast to hit land.
       
      Here is her own topic: https://forum.netweather.tv/topic/83870-major-hurricane-jimena/
       
      Anomalously warm waters due to El Nino
       
      One of the major causes of this unique event appears to be related to the El Nino that is currently active. Below is a map of the SST (sea surface temperature) anomalies of the 27th of August:
       

      SST anomalies as of 27 August. Courtesy: NOAA.
       
      For clarity, the black box roughly indicates the area in which the tropical cyclones are residing. Note that this area does not explicitly overlap with the most significant warm waters near the Equator associated with the El Nino event. Still, sea surface temperatures inthe encircled area are much warmer than average, contributing in the increased tropical activity.
       
      Summary
       
      An impressive event to say the least, three consecutive major hurricanes active in the Eastern and Central Pacific. Possibly we will even be facing one or two category five hurricanes in the very near future. Much more can be said about these systems, so do not hesitate to add any facts/statistics/any other things you might think of .
       
      Finally, just because of the amazing sight, below is a loop of the three tropical cyclones at major hurricane intensity. Click to activate.
       

      Satellite loop of the Eastern and Central Pacific. Click to activate. Courtesy: NOAA.
       
      Sources:
      http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php
      http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
      http://www.prh.noaa.gov/cphc/tcpages/archive.php
      http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/
       
    • By Thunderbolt_
      Mediterranean tropical cyclones, known as "medicanes", are a rare meteorological phenomenon in which tropical cyclones form in the Mediterranean Sea. The reason why they are so rare is because the Mediterranean region is fairly dry and so tropical cyclongenesis cannot occur, however if moisture is able to reach the region, usually in the form of a extratropical cyclone from the North Atlantic, then it may pass over the warmer waters of the sea and undergo tropical transition into a tropical cyclone.
       
      They are more common in the autumn and winter months when the jetstream moves farther south and allows low-pressure areas to reach the Mediterranean region.
       
      There have been rare instances of them though. Between 1948 and 2011, only 99 low-pressure systems with tropical or subtropical characteristics formed in the Mediterranean Basin. One example is the storm pictured below that formed in January 1995, that formed a distinctive eye.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×