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8 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Latest ECM ensembles are much more varied than earlier on. All sorts of possibilities. About 30% primarily affect Ireland with gusts between 90mph and 115mph gusts depending on the particular ensemble member. Another 30% odd see very strong winds through both S Ireland and the Irish Sea with a few close to 100mph in this region (mostly 80-90mph maxes). About 10% now track through the Channel, with a couple of runs giving 90 mph winds for Cornwall and 75-85mph further along the S Coast. And some miss to the west of Ireland completely - one of them bizarrely skirts around the west of Ireland and hits western Scotland with 110mph gusts. 

I don't know about the GEM, but the ECM does seem to be on its own right now, with the GFS keeping to further west and the UKMO being closer to it in its analysis.

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Once Ophelia becomes extratropical the 'spin' from around the eye slows down considerably, with this the windfield that was once around the core being 'splayed' outwards, which is what a few models are showing. This would make sense if the system is passing over southern/central Ireland with landfall interaction also playing it's role.

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My thought's ...as hurricanes just happen and can't be predicted.Does this mean all present long range model predictions are now wrong from this point?
DL9ZcDLXkAAz5y4.jpg:large

northern part is struggling now imo (thermal image bottom right corner)

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Just now, Martin R said:

My thought's ...as hurricanes just happen and can't be predicted.Does this mean all present long range model predictions are now wrong from this point?
 

Ophelia has been modelled and tracked since Monday, from when it was just a small tropical depression.

This is Monday's map from the NHC

mondaynhc.png

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1 minute ago, Paul said:

Ophelia has been modelled and tracked since Monday, from when it was just a small tropical depression.

This is Monday's map from the NHC

mondaynhc.png

Hi Paul been a while i hope you are doing well?
Yes i know that it's been tracked since Monday.I was thinking the charts before Monday are no longer in play for the outlook winter wise ?
Or am i over thinking the scenario? 

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Just now, Martin R said:

Hi Paul been a while i hope you are doing well?
Yes i know that it's been tracked since Monday.I was thinking the charts before Monday are no longer in play for the outlook winter wise ?
Or am i over thinking the scenario? 

Yeah, over thinking it a tad I think :)

I'm very good thanks, hope you are too.

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Just now, Paul said:

Yeah, over thinking it a tad I think :)

I'm very good thanks, hope you are too.

Doing good thanks :)
Time will tell ..

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I wonder if any storm chasers from the US will be flying over for this one:D

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2 minutes ago, Andy92 said:

Up to 100mph latest nhc update

Reed Timmer :rofl:

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1 minute ago, Mokidugway said:

Reed Timmer :rofl:

What!!!

he's in the canaries:rofl:

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Ophelia now officially at CAT2, the NHC also has the cone edging further East.

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2 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

Do you have a link to that? Thanks. 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

000
WTNT32 KNHC 122036
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Ophelia Advisory Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172017
500 PM AST Thu Oct 12 2017

...OPHELIA BARELY MOVING BUT CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 35.5W
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should refer to products issued by the
Azores Weather Forecast and Watch Center.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Ophelia was located
near latitude 30.4 North, longitude 35.5 West. Ophelia is currently
meandering, but a east-northeast motion is expected to begin
tonight.  A east-northeast motion is forecast to continue after that
with a substantial increase in forward speed by this weekend.  On
the forecast track, the center of Ophelia will remain south of the
Azores through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Some weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours, but Ophelia is expected to remain a hurricane for the next
couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).



HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL:  Ophelia is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches over Santa Maria Island of the Azores Saturday and
Saturday night.  During the same time, a cold front and moisture
associated with Ophelia is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over the other islands of the Azores.
This rainfall could produce flooding, especially over Santa Maria
Island.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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2 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

Do you have a link to that? Thanks. 

No link but..

 

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1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

What!!!

he's in the canaries:rofl:

Tornado up Teide :rofl:

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204406_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

 

It's looking worse and worse for South Ireland at the moment.

Edited by The Eagle
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2 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

204406_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

 

It's looking worse and worse for South Ireland at the moment.

A H over S ireland:shok:

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1 minute ago, The Eagle said:

204406_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

 

It's looking worse and worse for Ireland at the moment.

Brace yourselves Southern/Western Ireland I'd start the preparation this could be seriously bad more than a 1 in 10 year storm nothing is concrete yet but looking increasingly likely to blast parts of Ireland. 

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Just now, Allseasons-si said:

A H over S ireland:shok:

Thick southern white line over my location fog ?

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7 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

204406_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

 

It's looking worse and worse for South Ireland at the moment.

Still a hurricane as it makes landfall over Ireland? What the....

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To 

8 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

204406_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

 

It's looking worse and worse for South Ireland at the moment.

To be fair, it's looking worse and worse for the whole of Ireland. I suspect that if you had the track line turned on for that map, it's getting closer to running straight up the middle of Ireland.

.. and it's moving further and further east with each update.

Edited by crimsone
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