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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

It's bye, bye to the NHC. They have given their final advisory.

 

No longer a hurricane. We may never see them have to track a hurricane here for the rest of our lives. Great work from them.

Edited by The Eagle
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Well a jig to the west which is good news. For us it's a question of how the Pennines effects the winds

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Posted
  • Location: Salisbury
  • Location: Salisbury

Well it looks considerably stronger on the https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-9.34,50.35,2974/loc=-9.743,48.543 graphic this morning than it did yesterday evening!!!   .... not sure if that counts for anything. 

Looking at the very latest satellite images I wouldn't be at all surprised if it wobbled back slightly east as it moves closer to land.
The models do seem to agree a shift the centre westward along the coast (at least for now) wouldn't quite go as far as to say any particular model run has called it yet though; seen plenty of last hours directional changes from systems of this intensity before!

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What a contrast today will be over our little group of islands. The shift west is very welcome news meaning some stay out of the worse but for Ireland there was no escape, and now it's time to brace and ride it out. It's been a long time tracking this girl and lots of charts but it all now comes down to people's preparations and staying safe.

Possible mention of a sting jet but I can't see anything on sat currently that would suggest that. Although on the southern edge of the storms centre there is a dry slot on sat but it's not to pounced yet.. 

This was us yesterday here in Surrey 

DSC_0594.thumb.JPG.53d00a0f4eca21006e8541472993e8c7.JPG

Out in a t shirt with a beer.. I had to keep telling myself it's mid October 

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and snow but not together
  • Location: Newbury

Stay safe all of you in Ireland and northern wales, and Scotland..Will be thinking of you. 

Meanwhile in southern uk, it is feels positively quiet n tropical this morning-just like a day in June- Madness. 

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Posted
  • Location: West Malvern, West Midlands, 280m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow! Severe storms.
  • Location: West Malvern, West Midlands, 280m ASL

We've moderate rain in Malvern, but it's really warm outside! Not much wind. I see Ophelia's shifted more westwards, I hope that means better news for a lot of folk. Even so, stay safe everyone.

 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Not sure this small switch to the west makes a great deal of difference. Assume that the pressure levels are more relevant re the gradient. running up the west coast in line with the forecasts a few days ago. If it's deepening as expected then perhaps inland Wales and w England at less chance of any issues (although they weren't particularly anyway) - could actually be a worse outcome for the whole of Ireland as ironically, now she has lost her warm core, winds around the centre of the storm are less impactful than a little further out. stay safe to our Irish contingent 

EDIT: just checked the new ecm early frames and her track across Ireland's west coast is bang in line with the previous run so not sure why everyone thinks she has altered her expected movement whilst she is at her most dangerous. not as far as that model is concerned anyway.

Edited by bluearmy
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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian

No longer a hurricane this morning, officially. Track further west.

1610nhctext.png

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Morning all, well a crumb of comfort for both Ireland and Wales (but just a crumb), EURO4 and ARGEPE have both downgraded the windspeeds a tiny amount by a matter of a few miles per hour - won't make much difference, but at least it's not yet another an increase.

Particularly important for Wales, it is indeed tracking just a little to the west of the previously forecast track. Every tiny step moves the worst of the storm away from the Welsh coast. Even so, I am fairly confident that winds will exceed 80mph and even 90mph. 

That tweet from the Met Office - well I think it reveals it all, what a dreadful time to make such a mistake on social media. I've no doubt the Met is just like all work places - some great people and a few who shouldn't really be there. Nothing immoral about questioning their professionalism IMO - they more people do, the more they have to ensure they are.

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Posted
  • Location: Tenby, Pembrokeshire, Wales 30m a.s.l.
  • Location: Tenby, Pembrokeshire, Wales 30m a.s.l.

Moderately windy in S.Pembs this AM. Expecting wind to continue to build throughout day.

Met O has sustained wind at 49-50mph from 2-4pm, gusting 69-72mph, in Tenby.

Be interesting to see how close that is to what actually happens.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Not sure this small switch to the west makes a great deal of difference. Assume that the pressure levels are more relevant re the gradient. running up the west coast in line with the forecasts a few days ago. If it's deepening as expected then perhaps inland Wales and w England at less chance of any issues (although they weren't particularly anyway) - could actually be a worse outcome for the whole of Ireland as ironically, now she has lost her warm core, winds around the centre of the storm are less impactful than a little further out. stay safe to our Irish contingent 

EDIT: just checked the new ecm early frames and her track across Ireland's west coast is bang in line with the previous run so not sure why everyone thinks she has altered her expected movement whilst she is at her most dangerous. not as far as that model is concerned anyway.

I think the ECM was alone on that one - and yet again right. Awesome performance from the model, which picked this storms track up more or less even a week ago

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Posted
  • Location: Tenby, Pembrokeshire, Wales 30m a.s.l.
  • Location: Tenby, Pembrokeshire, Wales 30m a.s.l.

What's the record for warmest October night?

Currently 19c/20c in some areas of country! That's gotta be close, right?

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Posted
  • Location: Tenby, Pembrokeshire, Wales 30m a.s.l.
  • Location: Tenby, Pembrokeshire, Wales 30m a.s.l.
4 minutes ago, knocker said:

Interesting 00 sounding here with massive WAA in the boundary layer (22.8C at 942mb) and medium level instability. :shok:

2017101600.03808.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.686b8c23cffab0dc12f55e7d572cf219.gif

In layman's terms?

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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

STATUS RED

Wind Warning for Ireland

Ex-Hurricane Ophelia is forecast to track directly over Ireland during daytime today. Violent and destructive gusts are forecast with all areas at risk and in particular the southwest and south in the morning, and eastern counties in the afternoon. Also heavy rain and storm surges along some coasts will result in flooding. 
There is potential risk to lives.

Further details: Although there will be some severe gusts throughout the day, winds will reach their maximum strengths from the following times in the following areas. The public are advised to remain indoors from these times.

From 07:00: coastal areas of Counties Cork and Kerry

From 09:00: Remaining parts of Munster

From 12:00: South Leinster and Galway

From 13:00 Dublin and remaining Leinster

From 15:00 North Connacht and Ulster

Issued:

Sunday 15 October 2017 20:00

Valid:

Monday 16 October 2017 06:00 to Tuesday 17 October 2017 01:00

 

http://www.met.ie/nationalwarnings/default.asp

Edited by The Eagle
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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Just now, benb said:

In layman's terms?

A lot of warm air barreling in from the south west in the lower regions of the atmosphere, temp increasing sharply from the surface to around 1500 feet. and possible thundery/lightening in the medium levels ahead of the storm as Jo mentioned last evening.

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