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Posted
  • Location: Lochmaben Dumfries & Galloway
  • Weather Preferences: Spicy weather
  • Location: Lochmaben Dumfries & Galloway

cheers Knocker :good:

 

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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian
26 minutes ago, Squall said:

Isle of Man is only a yellow warning too whilst Northern Ireland is an amber :cc_confused:

isle of Man has its own Met office https://www.gov.im/weather/warning-severe-gales-coastal-overtopping-monday/ 

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Posted
  • Location: Lochmaben Dumfries & Galloway
  • Weather Preferences: Spicy weather
  • Location: Lochmaben Dumfries & Galloway
1 minute ago, Jo Farrow said:

Thanks Jo. I see that there is an amber for the Isle of Man, which makes sense :good:

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Posted
  • Location: East Lothian
  • Weather Preferences: Not too hot, excitement of snow, a hoolie
  • Location: East Lothian

NW Wales is being looked at currently

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Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
1 minute ago, Mokidugway said:

I would imagine  Cornwall ,north Wales,Cumbria and SW Scotland going amber soon .

Yep just as I was thinking  still not sure the track is nailed yet  could be a little more east than current projections show 

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Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
4 minutes ago, Jo Farrow said:

NW Wales is being looked at currently

Is the thinking about as it moves north around 1500 N. Wales comes into the orbit of the strong winds on the eastern flank for a time?

Edited by knocker
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Posted
  • Location: Livingston (ish)
  • Location: Livingston (ish)

I hate to mention this, but upgrading to an amber after dark on a Sunday night with the weather expected to hit tomorrow is gonna be really useless for many people. It's gonna be too late to do very much. 

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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

The Met O can’t really win in these situations, either they amber it to early and nothing comes of it or they do it a little late and nobody sees it. Tricky one for them to get the balance right. 

Edited by karlos1983
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Posted
  • Location: Lochmaben Dumfries & Galloway
  • Weather Preferences: Spicy weather
  • Location: Lochmaben Dumfries & Galloway
2 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:

I hate to mention this, but upgrading to an amber after dark on a Sunday night with the weather expected to hit tomorrow is gonna be really useless for many people. It's gonna be too late to do very much. 

I agree, especially for the elderly and disabled :(

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1 minute ago, Fiona Robertson said:

I hate to mention this, but upgrading to an amber after dark on a Sunday night with the weather expected to hit tomorrow is gonna be really useless for many people. It's gonna be too late to do very much. 

I would imagine the met put a lot of thought into issuing warnings ,I wouldn't want to ,lol

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Posted
  • Location: Newbury
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and snow but not together
  • Location: Newbury

Just to put context on the scale of warnings... local authority teams will be going in to overdrive tonight... 

858E92C2-E635-4C6C-A56D-B23335FD0A0E.png

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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
2 minutes ago, Fiona Robertson said:

I hate to mention this, but upgrading to an amber after dark on a Sunday night with the weather expected to hit tomorrow is gonna be really useless for many people. It's gonna be too late to do very much. 

these storms are very dynamic and so is the forecasting of them. they can change track or intensity at very short notice (ask michael fish...). to be fair, if they upgrade to amber now, at least people can get up early to make any preparations etc and don't forget, a yellow warning shouldn't be taken lightly. the word "warning" means just that. :wink:

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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

I'll go with a >50% chance that every county in Ireland has a red warning before midnight.

 

In terms of north west England and west Wales, looks amber to me. It should be amber really.

Edited by The Eagle
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Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton
1 minute ago, The Eagle said:

I'll go with a >50% chance that every county in Ireland has a red warning before midnight.

 

In terms of north west England and west Wales, looks amber to me.

What about the Pennines effect for the E and NE.

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

EURO4 has shifted back east (it was 30 or so miles west at 06Z) - that small shift takes the orange zone (69mph mean speeds or more) away from the Welsh coast. That's all it takes. 50 miles eastward correction and the west coast of Wales (and IOM) will be in almost as much trouble as Ireland.

That grey area (I'm assuming 65 knots or more, so 75 mph +) has grown again.

Bearing in the mind the Great Storm of 1987 had maximum coastal mean wind speeds of 56-63 knots (https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/learning/learn-about-the-weather/weather-phenomena/case-studies/great-storm), you can see Ophelia is on course to top it on the S coast of Ireland - and IMO there's an outside chance that Pembrokeshire or Anglesea will match it, IF there is a not unreasonable eastward correction in the track.

17101609_1512.gif  17101612_1512.gif  17101615_1512.gif

 

Edited by Man With Beard
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Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

another thing regarding warnings, this is not hurricane irma. its a fast moving storm, so although the winds will be quite intense, they will also be short-lived, lessening the impact - and this is taken into consideration when issuing warnings.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
1 minute ago, Matthew. said:

What about the Pennines effect for the E and NE.

Could result in freak gusts which is worrying.

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