Hurricane Ophelia

[Mokidugway]

Mobile phone alerts would be useful as there's always folk caught out by stormy weather.

[crimsone]

6 minutes ago, Jimmyh said:

Can i ask a question. I dont think i have ever seen a track for a storm like this before. Is this due to it being an ex hurricane and it does what it likes. It originated mid atlantic and just seems to have carried on that path. How unusual is this type of storm basicalky going southwest to northwest

The direction isn't really all that abnormal. They do it along the US coast all the time.

What's abnormal about this one is that it formed so far to the north east of the atlantic. SSTs and the environment aloft don't usually support the formation of a major hurricane in this region. In fact, they've NEVER supported it, to the best of our knowledge.

It doesn't do what it likes though - none of them ever do. They are steered by highs, jets and troughs, as well as (to a lesser degree) conservation of angular momentum.

Edit: This link might help. Or might not. You decide. http://www.hurricanescience.org/science/science/hurricanemovement/

Edited October 15, 2017 by crimsone

[booferking]

 Met Eireann 

Mean wind speeds in excess of 80 km/h and gusts in excess of 130km/h are expected, that really is something else not often you will hear mean wind-speeds excess of 80 km/h for are part of the world.

 

[Ben Sainsbury]

Ophelia pretty much completely in view now on Sat24: https://en.sat24.com/HD/en/eu/visual

Eye still evident?

Edited October 15, 2017 by Ben Sainsbury

[Man With Beard]

Latest EURO4 deepens the low still further. The bit with clear hurricane force winds (the grey/white bit) has expanded somewhat. I also detect a slight move to the east, maybe 30 miles, but it's enough to put the east coast of Ireland in the orange which shows 70mph plus region (mean winds, gusts higher), and the extremities of Wales are incredibly close to that zone. Will there be a red warning for Dublin??

[Alpine glow]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Latest EURO4 deepens the low still further. The bit with clear hurricane force winds (the grey/white bit) has expanded somewhat. I also detect a slight move to the east, maybe 30 miles, but it's enough to put the east coast of Ireland in the orange which shows 70mph plus region (mean winds, gusts higher), and the extremities of Wales are incredibly close to that zone. Will there be a red warning for Dublin??

Ooooh creeping 'a little' further towards Brighton!! 

[Badgers01]

6 minutes ago, booferking said:

 Met Eireann 

Mean wind speeds in excess of 80 km/h and gusts in excess of 130km/h are expected, that really is something else not often you will hear mean wind-speeds excess of 80 km/h for are part of the world.

 

80 km an hour means and 130 kmh gusts just sound like a fairly normal autumn storm to me in the lake district !?

[Mokidugway]

Just now, Badgers01 said:

80 km an hour means and 130 kmh gusts just sound like a fairly normal autumn storm to me in the lake district !?

Lol ,on the fells maybe .

[booferking]

2 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

80 km an hour means and 130 kmh gusts just sound like a fairly normal autumn storm to me in the lake district !?

Ok cool

[thetipster]

[Badgers01]

2 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Lol ,on the fells maybe .

gusts of 80mph are not that unusual in the lake district ??

 

[Met4Cast]

5 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

80 km an hour means and 130 kmh gusts just sound like a fairly normal autumn storm to me in the lake district !?

The Lake District isn't quite the same densely populated area as Ireland though, is it..

[WelshWanderer]

Blimey, That sat image of the storm shows the eye still very evident and it looks like Ophelia is heading dead for the UK *gulp*  You would think there would be more warnings on national tv by now...

[Man With Beard]

3 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

80 km an hour means and 130 kmh gusts just sound like a fairly normally autumn storm to me in the lake district !?

Going by the EURO4, this is going to be wrong at least within 30 miles of wind facing coasts.

I've followed the EURO4 for years, and even in the very worst storms, I've never seen its top scale being broken, not even in Feb 2014.

For the affected regions, think the worst storm you can recall from this decade, add 10-20mph and you'll be close to the mark.

[BurntFishTrousers]

The National Emergency Co-ordination Group has warned that Hurricane Ophelia is the most powerful storm system to hit the country in 50 years as the number of counties subject to a red weather warning increased.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/hurricane-ophelia-strongest-storm-ireland-has-seen-in-50-years-1.3256472

[BrickFielder]

Estofex forecast for those who have not seen it http://www.estofex.org/

Couple of quotes.

      A surge of dry low-stratospheric air wraps cyclonically around the cyclone's center, probably ending the stage of a potential offshore sting jet event.

     Downdrafts may bring severe wind gusts to the BL.

What I am pondering is the forward speed of the storm which I roughly calculate to be 50mph (6 hours to traverse Ireland) which makes me question highest wind speeds of 80mph. Looking at forecast storm surge levels which range from about 1m to 2m then there seems to be some key risk areas like south Wales, but particularly the Scottish borders down to Liverpool (in addition to Ireland). What does concern me is that the jet stream pattern showing up on satellite images is deviating slightly from forecast (jet to the east of the storm is weaker than expected and the trough to the west a little sharper). Maybe a few twists and turns still to play out.

[Mokidugway]

8 minutes ago, Badgers01 said:

gusts of 80mph are not that unusual in the lake district ??

 

I live here ,fells and coasts maybe but 80 mph gusts at low levels is rare thank god ,katbatic and forcing winds would be catastrophic ,lol

[J-Man]

The eye is still there on sat24 radar updated only 15 mins ago.

[Mokidugway]

12 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

The Lake District isn't quite the same densely populated area as Ireland though, is it..

Population of Cumbria is just under half a million, 

[WelshWanderer]

In Swansea we are used to rain and wind but 70-80 mph winds will be some else entirely!!  I've been out today and barely anyone knows whats about to hit us and there is nothing on TV or the web that indicates how bad it is going to get.  I know that they don't want to create a panic but people need to prepare and being a Sunday the major stores close in an hour.

[bobbydog]

4 minutes ago, BrickFielder said:

Estofex forecast for those who have not seen it http://www.estofex.org/

Couple of quotes.

      A surge of dry low-stratospheric air wraps cyclonically around the cyclone's center, probably ending the stage of a potential offshore sting jet event.

     Downdrafts may bring severe wind gusts to the BL.

What I am pondering is the forward speed of the storm which I roughly calculate to be 50mph (6 hours to traverse Ireland) which makes me question highest wind speeds of 80mph. Looking at forecast storm surge levels which range from about 1m to 2m then there seems to be some key risk areas like south Wales, but particularly the Scottish borders down to Liverpool (in addition to Ireland). What does concern me is that the jet stream pattern showing up on satellite images is deviating slightly from forecast (jet to the east of the storm is weaker than expected and the trough to the west a little sharper). Maybe a few twists and turns still to play out.

i've been watching the satellite images carefully for several hours and to me, it seems as if the track is veering slightly east of the forecast. it does appear to be making 'the turn' now but it will have to sharpen its turn to keep in line with the NHC forecast. it wouldn't surprise me if this storm went straight up the irish sea, bringing cornwall and more of wales into the firing line. i could be (well, most likely) wrong but we'll see...

[crimsone]

A yachting friend of mine has just posted a comment with a portion of the shipping forecast on my facebook. It's a pretty rare one to hear, and it goes like this...

 

Quote

Lundy, Fastnet, Irish Sea
South backing southeast for a time 5 to 7, increasing severe gale 9 to violent storm 11 later, occasionally hurricane force 12 in Fastnet.
Moderate, becoming high or very high later, occasionally phenomenal in Fastnet. Rain later. Moderate or good, becoming poor later.

 

[toggerob]

Given this time of year you'd be expecting a icy-cold windchill factor associated with regular-Atlantic lows, these gales however will be extratropical in nature and feeling more like being face-first into a hairdryer on low-settings.

[crimsone]

12 minutes ago, WelshWanderer said:

In Swansea we are used to rain and wind but 70-80 mph winds will be some else entirely!!  I've been out today and barely anyone knows whats about to hit us and there is nothing on TV or the web that indicates how bad it is going to get.  I know that they don't want to create a panic but people need to prepare and being a Sunday the major stores close in an hour.

It's a bad day to live atop Town Hill, that's for sure.

On the plus side, the DVLA complex will take a battering.

To be fair though, I doubt there's much to be prepared for most people in Swansea. I remember riding out a nasty storm in the Garw, just outside Bridgend in the 80s - you basically just sat there and hoped the chimney stayed on.

Edited October 15, 2017 by crimsone

[crimsone]

3 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

Given this time of year you'd be expecting a icy-cold windchill factor associated with regular-Atlantic lows, these gales however will be extratropical in nature and feeling more like being face-first into a hairdryer on low-settings.

The use of extratropical really bugs me (not you, specifically... just more generally). It means all things to everyone. I mean, all of our frontal systems are extratropical cyclones, most of which were not even initially tropical. Yet, in other uses, it refers to a no-longer-tropical cyclone.

Dammit... one term for one thing! No wonder people find English hard to learn lol