Hurricane Ophelia

[The Eagle]

Ireland's National Emergency Co-ordination Center is to meet tomorrow morning.

It's like "COBRA" in UK but to respond to a natural disaster.

First time ever, to my knowledge. Clearly this is being taken very seriously now.

Edited October 15, 2017 by The Eagle

[audiotech]

Just now, The Eagle said:

Ireland's National Emergency Co-ordination Center is to meet tomorrow morning.

 

First time ever, to my knowledge.

Good, this definitely needs to be taken seriously. I wouldn't go as far as mass evacuation but certainly things like government ordered mandatory school closures should be considered.

[James M]

Absolutely fascinating seeing such a well defined hurricane so near. Part of me wants it to track a bit further east to experience it, but I know it could potentially cause quite a bit of damage.

[The Eagle]

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/10/14/europe/hurricane-ophelia/index.html

 

The headlines are surreal.

[cruelwx]

Looking at the Metoffice forecast for here, West Wales shows very little rain with this hurricane. 60 mph gusts.  The 1987 storm in the SE UK gave us serious flooding in the days after.  A train bridge was swept away in the Towy valley and and a train plunged into the river with 4 deaths.  I remember the soggy post being delivered because Carmarthen sorting office was under water.  Hopefully all my post will wash away this time and all trains will be fine!

 

[Andy Pepler]

looking at ir sat24 it looks like to me that she has turned east ..... does the southwest uk have to worry now ??   oh red how did i do that 

[GeordieX9v]

1 hour ago, Andy Pepler said:

looking at ir sat24 it looks like to me that she has turned east ..... does the southwest uk have to worry now ??   oh red how did i do that 

Think she begins the northward turn pretty soon.

[The Eagle]

New advisory. Remains Category 3 hurricane.

[Andy92]

Post tropical Sunday night

[The Eagle]

ICON 00z 

 

Edited October 15, 2017 by The Eagle

[The Eagle]

GFS 00z

Edited October 15, 2017 by The Eagle

[Fiona Robertson]

Just now, The Eagle said:

GFS 00z

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2017101500/gfs-0-36.png?0

It's not getting any better, is it?

[Willsy]

I have a funny feeling that this may tack further east than expected!!! Which could impact the uk more!! To my untrained eye the last few gfs runs have increased the stronger winds abit further east than the previous. the most recent radar loop shows it heading E slightly NE. let’s hope by tomorrow she’s in the bay of biscay ready to deal the contry a lethal Blow!! With the centre of the low skirting  up the south coast. How funny would this be if it all happened at the last minute I think it’s quite plausible it could happen computers can’t always be right! The next 48 hours are going to be very interesting to say the least. If this euro high doesn’t block it like modelled then we may have some paths the same as this pic I did for fun 

Edited October 15, 2017 by Willsy

[Willsy]

11 minutes ago, Willsy said:

I have a funny feeling that this may tack further east than expected!!! Which could impact the uk more!! To my untrained eye the last few gfs runs have increased the stronger winds abit further east than the previous. the most recent radar loop shows it heading E slightly NE. let’s hope by tomorrow she’s in the bay of biscay ready to deal the contry a lethal Blow!! With the centre of the low skirting  up the south coast. How funny would this be if it all happened at the last minute I think it’s quite plausible it could happen computers can’t always be right! The next 48 hours are going to be very interesting to say the least. If this euro high doesn’t block it like modelled then we may have some paths the same as this pic I did for fun 

 

[karlos1983]

1 hour ago, Willsy said:

 

Where’s that from? Most of those red lines aren’t even on the cards if your saying they are possible tracks? Not very helpful as this is quite a serious situation.

Edited October 15, 2017 by karlos1983

[Man With Beard]

Can't see any change in direction this morning, but I sense the intensity has been upped even more. In these latest EURO4 charts, the orange zone means 69mph or above mean winds (gusts much higher) - so F11 or touching F12. Note a little spot near Anglesea.

Edited October 15, 2017 by Man With Beard

[Insert Name Here]

3 hours ago, The Eagle said:

New advisory. Remains Category 3 hurricane.

Isn't it fair to say that that picture shows a hurricane landfall?

[Insert Name Here]

1 hour ago, Willsy said:

 

Very scientific :-/

[January Snowstorm]

I see the ecm is further West with everything. Nothing certain yet?

[karlos1983]

Interesting, transition to post tropical was expected to happen at 40N and now looks way past 45N, so stronger longer. Be interesting to see if that changes again approaching 50N

[Insert Name Here]

Just now, January Snowstorm said:

I see the ecm is further West with everything. Nothing certain yet?

What link do you use to see this?

[Iceberg]

Ec shows it slightly windier than the last run. Also the front winds up the Irish Sea ie Dublin as well as the central west side. 

[JeffC]

10 hours ago, NorthernRab said:

Mountains and hills demand as much respect as the sea, imho.

I wouldn't be going up any hills when there are 80mph + winds about. 

I concur Rab. If you've ever seen a 6' built like a brick outhouse former army bloke carrying 15 kg of stretcher get picked up and carried 20 ' and planted on his derriere, you get an idea of what wind can be like.

In our area we also have lots of spoil heaps from slate quarrying and the smaller bits get blown about like shrapnel! I've seen a few sets of waterproofs shredded like that.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

1 hour ago, Willsy said:

 

Impossible tracks there, you have an omega block in place over Europe, hence the track that it is due to take into Ireland sliding "along" the high pressure, it's huge 

 

[snowdog]

BBC radio weather forecast seem to be playing down the effects of this ‘storm’. Just listened to the forecast on Radio 4 and he mentioned possible disruption tomorrow with gusts of 70 miles per hour. Maybe this is because they only cover Northern Ireland in their forecast?