Hurricane Ophelia

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

2 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

Indeed, I’m off to look but im sure I’ve read before somewhere the stronger the hurricane, the more forward momentum it carries, I.e. easterly track rather than north. 

I thought this too actually, this really could become a lot more serious than anyone is thinking. 

[Summer Sun]

18 minutes ago, Lynxus said:

Wow, This winter is going to be full of surprises!

 

When was the last time the Azores was hit by a Cat3?  Surely it must of been quite a long time ago.. (if ever?)

 

[MattStoke]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

"It probably wont reach Category 2"

"It probably wont reach Category 3"

"It probably wont hit Ireland as a hurricane".....

I probably won't win the lottery.

Interesting times.

[chiffer]

I can't seem to escape hurricanes at the moment, just got back from a lovely long stay in the states today and should be seeing some more terrible weather on Monday!

[Man With Beard]

Our poster from Cork should sit down before reading this

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/141438.shtml?

The NHC now predicting the storm will have 85mph max mean wind speeds in 48 hours time. That's close to landfall time for Ireland.

Also, they note that the current 100 knots/115 mph assessment is "conservative".

[MattStoke]

Probability of tropical storm force sustained winds increasing. As it often does nearer impact.

[claret047]

Good afternoon everyone.

Very exciting, but for some, concerning times ahead. Being far from an expert could I ask some of the more knowledgeable on here their views on the following. We currently have a Euro High to the south and south east of us and Ophelia way out to the south west. Ophelia is very "deep" and in winter when we are wanting snow and their is a low pressure coming in off the Atlantic it always seems to win out no matter how strong the high pressure to our east is. Given that, is there any chance that Ophelia  could instead of go in a northeasterly direction go on a much more easterly track as the high is pushed aside and cross southern England?

Many thanks.

Kind Regards

Dave

[January Snowstorm]

Well guys I'm well poised in the heart of Cork City. The news channels over here haven't really copped on to what's ahead yet. It looks dangerous to me and Cork after all is Irelands largest city outside of Dublin. The 12zs will be compulsive viewing

[Met4Cast]

3 minutes ago, claret047 said:

Good afternoon everyone.

Very exciting, but for some, concerning times ahead. Being far from an expert could I ask some of the more knowledgeable on here their views on the following. We currently have a Euro High to the south and south east of us and Ophelia way out to the south west. Ophelia is very "deep" and in winter when we are wanting snow and their is a low pressure coming in off the Atlantic it always seems to win out no matter how strong the high pressure to our east is. Given that, is there any chance that Ophelia  could instead of go in a northeasterly direction go on a much more easterly track as the high is pushed aside and cross southern England?

Many thanks.

Kind Regards

Dave

Unlikely - Low Pressure systems that you talk about usually have the Jet Stream steering/pushing them along, hurricanes are stand alone features that are steered differently.

The frontal feature that's coincided with Ophelia is steering it Northwards coupled with High Pressure over Europe. Whilst it could track further East, I can't see it being any further East than Eastern Ireland. The most likely track though is just off of the Irish Coast given model consensus now. I'd be surprised if the track deviates significantly at this late juncture.

[toggerob]

Bus Eireann cancels school services over Hurricane Ophelia

[cowdog]

3 minutes ago, SNOW_JOKE said:

Bus Eireann cancels school services over Hurricane Ophelia

Wise move. Probably best that that parts of England and Wales also follow suit if it does track further East as is possible given the increased strength, Monday morning is going to be a nightmare.

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

14 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Our poster from Cork should sit down before reading this

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/141438.shtml?

The NHC now predicting the storm will have 85mph max mean wind speeds in 48 hours time. That's close to landfall time for Ireland.

Also, they note that the current 100 knots/115 mph assessment is "conservative".

If she can hold off and deconstruct just before Ireland, then we could be looking at 110mph+ gusts at the core, with 90mph quite widely through the Irish sea. Really touch and go right now

[Cold Winter]

I don't think the slight strengthening in Ophelia compared with model predictions will make much difference on the track of the storm as it nears Ireland. There seems to be good model consensus already and although the storm is a bit stronger than anticipated, which may change things slightly, I can't see it being significant.

It'll still be interesting to see the 12z updates though.

[Hurricane Andrew]

Wow didn't expect Ophelia to reach major hurricane status 

[Fiona Robertson]

34 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Bit sad we are depending on  NOAA for updates.

Now, that's what I've been thinking for days. Their warning cones have been much more informative than anything from the Met Office. Shame there's no chance of a recon flight, data would be interesting.

[Mokidugway]

I've been busy today making stuff safe outside including making a scaffold tube bar attachment  for the bifold doors to my workshop  ,suprised at how much stuff that's  lying around is vulnerable to the wind .

 

[Thermohaline Conveyor]

On 12/10/2017 at 18:45, Thermohaline Conveyor said:

I think the most likely track takes Ophelia just to the West of the West coast of Ireland although wobbles that take the centre circulation across inland Ireland are entirely feasible.  A majority of the ensembles would suggest a more Westerly bias though.  ECMWF operational is further East with the core circulation crossing much of inland Ireland however EPS generally back the westward trend along with NCEP and HWRF.  The CONUS issued by the official guidance of the NHC is a blended mean and is reasonable.  Still some minor shifts plausible in the next 48 hours.  Is there anyone on the S coast of Ireland on this forum?

So far my original thoughts seem to be coming to fruition with a track generally just off the West coast of West Ireland.  A shift could still happen.  We will actually know more by Sunday PM as Ophelia officially undergoes tropical transitioning around 15:00 on Sunday according to GFS.  Likely to be slight variations in this interaction between the Euro and Global suite.

[Fiona Robertson]

54 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Not sure what superlative to use?   

 

I'm ignoring superlatives and going with "WT actual F?"

[Thermohaline Conveyor]

A beautiful but scary sight!

[The Eagle]

DWD 12z

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/icon/run/icon-0-48.png?14-12

 

 

GFS 12z

 

Edited October 14, 2017 by The Eagle

[The PIT]

Going to be interesting Monday evening Tuesday morning as it's bin day. I wonder how many numptys put the bins out the night before.

[Polar Maritime]

Latest GFS..

[Met4Cast]

14 minutes ago, Thermohaline Conveyor said:

A beautiful but scary sight!

Absolutely beautiful! 

Incredible to see such a well defined hurricane so far East.

[NorthernRab]

A NE record breaker and one of a kind

 

 

Edited October 14, 2017 by NorthernRab

[MattStoke]

Wow.