Hurricane Ophelia

[karlos1983]

[cowdog]

10 minutes ago, The PIT said:

Interesting report by noaa. The hurricane is keeping it's strength for now and atmospheric conditions combined with warmer than average sea temps look like helping it to be a very powerful extropical low. Hopefully we are not sleep walking into a emergency situation.

 

Thats my fear. Dvorak is keeping to increase its now at 5.7/5.9 and the sat images look akin to a Major Hurricane. Would imagine Met Éireann and Met Office will start to increase the tone of their language as this could well be just more than another wind event.

[The Eagle]

M.E have just issued red alerts

STATUS RED

Wind Warning for Galway, Mayo, Clare, Cork and Kerry

Ex-hurricane Ophelia is expected to bring severe winds and stormy conditions on Monday. Mean wind speeds in excess of 80 km/h and gusts in excess of 130km/h are expected, potentially causing structural damage and disruption, with dangerous marine conditions due to high seas and potential flooding.

Issued:

Saturday 14 October 2017 12:00

Valid:

Monday 16 October 2017 09:00 to Tuesday 17 October 2017 03:00

 

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for The rest of the country

Ex-hurricane Ophelia is expected to bring severe winds and stormy conditions on Monday. Mean wind speeds between 65 and 80 km/h with gusts between of 110 and 130km/h are expected, however some inland areas may not be quite as severe. The winds have potential to cause structural damage and disruption, with dangerous marine conditions due to high seas and potential flooding.

Issued:

Saturday 14 October 2017 12:00

Edited October 14, 2017 by The Eagle

[The PIT]

3 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

M.E have just issued red alerts

STATUS RED

Wind Warning for Galway, Mayo, Clare, Cork and Kerry

Ex-hurricane Ophelia is expected to bring severe winds and stormy conditions on Monday. Mean wind speeds in excess of 80 km/h and gusts in excess of 130km/h are expected, potentially causing structural damage and disruption, with dangerous marine conditions due to high seas and potential flooding.

Issued:

Saturday 14 October 2017 12:00

Valid:

Monday 16 October 2017 09:00 to Tuesday 17 October 2017 03:00

 

STATUS ORANGE

Wind Warning for The rest of the country

Ex-hurricane Ophelia is expected to bring severe winds and stormy conditions on Monday. Mean wind speeds between 65 and 80 km/h with gusts between of 110 and 130km/h are expected, however some inland areas may not be quite as severe. The winds have potential to cause structural damage and disruption, with dangerous marine conditions due to high seas and potential flooding.

Issued:

Saturday 14 October 2017 12:00

Well they seem to be awake. Yellow warnings for some parts of the uK.

[Paul T]

With regard to the Bristol Channel surge potential...

Its large tidal range actually makes its ability to "cope" with a storm surge better than areas with limited tidal range. The "perfect storm" for a detrimental storm surge would be a spring tide (lets say 14.5m at avonmouth) with the additional of further hieght from a surge. 

Therefore, focussing on Monday, we have a 11.8m high tide, so even a storm surge of say 1 meter, along with some higher waves at high tide would still probably be within tolerences... 

In summary, if it was a spring high I would be more concerned but one to watch...

[Summer Sun]

Will the UK met issue ambers warnings??? this will surely be named Brian this weekend

[Weather-history]

9 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Will the UK met issue ambers warnings??? this will surely be named Brian this weekend

There is your problem as I mentioned before in the naming system. What happens when an ex hurricane hits the UK? Already the storm is in the media as Ophelia.

Edited October 14, 2017 by Weather-history

[toggerob]

Aside from the winds and rain, one other interesting aspect Ophelia will be carrying is Saharan Dust, and quite a bit of it across the UK.

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

 

[Paul]

16 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

There is your problem as I mentioned before in the naming system. What happens when an ex hurricane hits the UK? Already the storm is in the media as Ophelia.

The met office won't rename previously named hurricanes/tropical storms, so it will stay as ex-Ophelia.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

9 hours ago, The Eagle said:

Newest advisory - strength (surprisingly) stays Category 2. Likely to remain a hurricane for at least 48 hours after which becomes extra tropical just as hitting Irish coast.

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/140233.shtml?

 

 

My interpretation of the first of those two charts is that it is due to undergo extratropical transition somewhere off the Spanish coast.

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

My interpretation of the first of those two charts is that it is due to undergo extratropical transition somewhere off the Spanish coast.

Yeah looks like somewhere around 40 degrees North to me

[radiohead]

Shame there is no aircraft recon out there as Dvorak estimates point to Ophelia now being a major hurricane.

[The Eagle]

Sorry let me clarify - I meant to say hurricane force winds - not "a hurricane"

 

hmmm

 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 minute ago, The Eagle said:

Sorry let me clarify - I meant to say hurricane force winds - not "a hurricane"

 

hmmm

 

Important distinction indeed!

[karlos1983]

What’s this 5.7 Dvorak business then? Not heard that before 

[radiohead]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

What’s this 5.7 Dvorak business then? Not heard that before 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dvorak_technique

[Mokidugway]

Small island,huge contrast 

[The Eagle]

 

[Man With Beard]

7 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

 

Clear divergence from forecast. Wonder how the 12Zs will deal with that, if confirmed

[karlos1983]

13 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Clear divergence from forecast. Wonder how the 12Zs will deal with that, if confirmed

Indeed, I’m off to look but im sure I’ve read before somewhere the stronger the hurricane, the more forward momentum it carries, I.e. easterly track rather than north. 

Edited October 14, 2017 by karlos1983

[Daniel*]

Remarkable only in 25C waters I believe this is rare, I love the unpredictable nature that’s part of the fascination 2017 has been a very interesting year one that I will not forget - the models have certainly not showed Ophelia as intense the subsequent effects remains to be seen.  

 

Edited October 14, 2017 by Daniel*

[TheToastPeople]

Booked monday off work just incase i need to rush towards the west coast with a camera! Stay safe everyone, tie down your garden furniture!

[The PIT]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Will the UK met issue ambers warnings??? this will surely be named Brian this weekend

Probably do it Monday morning when it will be too late. The name well that's got to stay the same. At the moment it's hardly getting much attention with news more concerned about pervert film makers and the comedy at the Whitehouse.

[The Eagle]

Lots of speculation now that O'Phelia is a major Category 3 hurricane.

 

*waits for next advisory*

Edited October 14, 2017 by The Eagle