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Posted
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
4 minutes ago, OPHELIA said:

I didn't say it would be a hurricane, but in nature it will stay out at seas to live(no I'm not saying this is a living organism), I already know weather systems can change it, but you seem to be treating it as a tropical storm in your comment, I don't believe it has to be over 26c water, it just needs to be over water no matter the temperature because that is how most storms like this form and live may it be hot or cold, and let me warp your mind even more...please do remember we are in a severe climate change so you and I both don't know what the hell we are talking about....the fact is...can you accept this ;).

What a load of tosh.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
1 minute ago, OPHELIA said:

Ok please do stop, you guys keep forgetting the climate is changing, you have to accept this.....wow.

Haha I do kinda agree with that, everyone saying it's "impossible" etc.. 

Whilst Ophelia probably wont be a hurricane when it hits Ireland, it's got damn closer than any other storm has. I wouldn't be surprised if the UK does get hit by a true hurricane at some point in the future.

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Posted
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
  • Location: Colchester, Essex, UK (33m ASL)
1 minute ago, Nick F said:

I think we have to accept you are trolling the thread with incorrect statements about how meteorology works.

It's a pity Nick, this thread is a wonderful opportunity for a good discussion to bring understanding to folks in the UK on the way these storms transition from hurricane to extra tropical, why we can never get a true hurricane ( well, not until our sea temps rise quite a bit!) and the fact we can, and often do get the remnants of hurricanes and every so often one of quite severe intensity if we get an Atlantic wanderer such as Ophelia.

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Posted
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms/Snow/Hail & Strong Winds
  • Location: Ramsey, Minnesota (USA)
1 minute ago, OPHELIA said:

Really? Is this how you treat people with open minds who have studied the weather since child birth :(, I am not a troll I promise you this....Go ahead do your research, come on prove me wrong...what happens when water becomes warmer. I'm not a conspiracy theorist, the only thing that is stopping these storms from becoming more powerful is in fact....salt and maybe just maybe the tilt of the earth during autumn.   

 

I've had enough already. I thought this generation would be more open minded.

 

Depressions will increase, ex tropical storms can or could increase again it depends on the salt deposits in the atlantic and currents.

Please stop. This forum is predominantly good with discussion, there will always disagreement but your taking it to a new level. Your essentially saying those whom do research in these fields (Likely have PhD's) are completely wrong and in denial? 

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Posted
  • Location: Carlisle
  • Location: Carlisle
9 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Any more spamming or trolling of this thread will be removed ... so be warned. Let's keep discussion civil and sensibly reasoned  plz, this is not the place for trashing well known science with climate change as an excuse.

Oh at last Nick :), current posting by an individual has stopped me visiting this topic :)

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Posted
  • Location: Atlantic Ocean
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes
  • Location: Atlantic Ocean
5 minutes ago, MattTarrant said:

Please stop. This forum is predominantly good with discussion, there will always disagreement but your taking it to a new level. Your essentially saying those whom do research in these fields (Likely have PhD's) are completely wrong and in denial? 

I'm asking all to do research.....with a please. no matter of education.

Edited by OPHELIA
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
14 minutes ago, OPHELIA said:

Really? Is this how you treat people with open minds who have studied the weather since child birth :(, I am not a troll I promise you this....Go ahead do your research, come on prove me wrong...what happens when water becomes warmer. I'm not a conspiracy theorist, the only thing that is stopping these storms from becoming more powerful is in fact....salt and maybe just maybe the tilt of the earth during autumn.   

 

I've had enough already. I thought this generation would be more open minded.

 

Depressions will increase, ex tropical storms can or could increase again it depends on the salt deposits in the atlantic and currents.

You’re being childish you’re doing the right thing if you want your account to cease to exist. Get a grip the UK will never be able to get a hurricane which makes landfall yes never, we can certainly have hurricane force winds, but not a hurricane with an eyewall and tropical convection bands - our northerly latitude simply does not allow it. 

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Posted
  • Location: Atlantic Ocean
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes
  • Location: Atlantic Ocean
10 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

A Category 1 strength post tropical storm making landfall in Ireland is good enough for me.

Humm  2017-10-16 01:00 Local ⇄ UTC

Seems interesting 

 

Notice how it is absorbing the warm air from land.

Edited by OPHELIA
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Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland

Newest advisory - strength (surprisingly) stays Category 2. Likely to remain a hurricane for at least 48 hours after which becomes extra tropical just as hitting Irish coast.

023933_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

023933.png

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/140233.shtml?

 

 

Edited by The Eagle
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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

This morning's ECM appears further west to me. Most of the others keep pretty much the same track as they had yesterday, with some building up the windfield so that Cornwall and Pembrokeshire get clipped at 70-80mph. Gust generally pushing 100mph on arrival to Ireland, ECM would appear slightly less.

Now getting to the stage where short-term models are the best to follow (ARGEPE, AROME, NNM, WRF, EURO4). I've always thought the GFS did pretty well with storms inside of T72.

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Still it good shape. GFS has the wind speed down but then more wide spread. Nothing special for us still but may now hit 50 mph gusts

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