Hurricane Ophelia

[OPHELIA]

9 minutes ago, Paul said:

Current forecast wave heights, are 9-10 metres, so yeah quite a swell!

Thank you

[Mokidugway]

7 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Christ almighty, that’s 30 ft 

If you take into consideration near shore effect you could be looking at 40 to 50 ft

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, OPHELIA said:

No no it doesn't have to make landfall the surge is actually spread out and at sea heading to land, it's not a hurricane when it hits us. the surge can in fact go all around Ireland from 1 inch to meters ;).

I am well aware it’s (you’re) not a hurricane when Ireland or the UK does or does not take a hit, 1 inch isn’t really an issue, but generally with hurricanes storm surge is worse near the centre and with the onshore prevailing wind. 10 feet of surge is life threatening, 1 inch couldn’t penetrate Jordon nevermind the Irish coastline 

 

[Nick F]

ECM has up to 38ft or 11m just offshore of Southern Ireland on Monday evening, up to 29 ft or 8m Celtic Sea / southern Irish Sea by early Tuesday

[OPHELIA]

6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I am well aware it’s (you’re) not a hurricane when Ireland or the UK does or does not take a hit, 1 inch isn’t really an issue, but generally with hurricanes storm surge is worse near the centre and with the onshore prevailing wind. 10 feet of surge is life threatening, 1 inch couldn’t penetrate Jordon nevermind the Irish coastline 

 

I know that's why I said you and I know, I can tell you know what you're talking about . I like to explain further more in my posts to help others.

Edited October 13, 2017 by OPHELIA

[Mokidugway]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I am well aware it’s (you’re) not a hurricane when Ireland or the UK does or does not take a hit, 1 inch isn’t really an issue, but generally with hurricanes storm surge is worse near the centre and with the onshore prevailing wind. 10 feet of surge is life threatening, 1 inch couldn’t penetrate Jordon nevermind the Irish coastline 

 

That would be a micro surge 

[January Snowstorm]

Hi Nick F 

Bearing in mind Cork is low lying and Irelands second city is a red warning warranted in your opinion?

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

ECM has up to 38ft or 11m just offshore of Southern Ireland on Monday evening, up to 29 ft or 8m Celtic Sea / southern Irish Sea by early Tuesday

That’s some seriously high inshore waters. I do hope people don’t think a walk to the beach is a good idea 

[OPHELIA]

1 minute ago, Mokidugway said:

That would be a micro surge 

Just topping the tea hahaha

[OPHELIA]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

That’s some seriously high inshore waters. I do hope people don’t think a walk to the beach is a good idea 

Without rain this could actually flood some Dublin areas such as Clontarf, it has happened before. Thank you. I have an old folk friend who lives in that area so the more I know the better :).

Edited October 13, 2017 by OPHELIA

[The Eagle]

GFS 18z

 

Definite shift east of center and landfall.

Edited October 13, 2017 by The Eagle

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

GFS upgraded potential 18z

 

Definite shift east of center and landfall.

I really want to be in Southern Ireland on Monday not West Wales. 

[Nick F]

8 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Hi Nick F 

Bearing in mind Cork is low lying and Irelands second city is a red warning warranted in your opinion?

I'm not expert on oceanography, but certainly think there will be impacts of such a high swell entering Cork Harbour on a high tide being funnelled into bays and as far as the the city itself and causing tidal flooding low lying areas, particularly given the strong onshore winds and waves likely from the south.

 

[January Snowstorm]

The GFS shows southeast direction storms for Cork

Historically the worst direction locally as the tide backs up in the harbour (corks worst flooding always came with a southeast wind)

Storm surge, southeast winds, heavy rain = ?

[OPHELIA]

8 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I really want to be in Southern Ireland on Monday not West Wales. 

Join the club, I might stay awake all night and take footage.

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Eastward shift on the GFS takes Ophelia into SW Ireland towards the far West of NI, and very close to mainland Western Scotland. Winds look a bit stronger too?? 

[Nick F]

Looking at GFS and EC precip charts, they keep heaviest rain over the Atlantic and western coast of Ireland on northern and western side of Ophelia, so rainfall may not be so much of an issue as the winds and coastal or tidal flooding will be. Of course, this may change if it tracks further east.

Edited October 13, 2017 by Nick F

[OPHELIA]

5 minutes ago, Ross Andrew Hemphill said:

Eastward shift on the GFS takes Ophelia into SW Ireland towards the far West of NI, and very close to mainland Western Scotland. Winds look a bit stronger too?? 

Can I take this moment to say and not contradicting your post but storms like this do intend to stay out in the ocean because that is what they feed from, it's as they say for every action there is a reaction :). This could in turn keep some form of strength for a little while, but I'm not counting on it. 

Edited October 13, 2017 by OPHELIA

[karlos1983]

@Nick F if “hypothetically” you were going to pick a spot in Ireland for landfall, where would you go... no pressure like  

[SnowBear]

9 minutes ago, OPHELIA said:

Can I take this moment to say and not contradicting your post but storms like this do intend to stay out in the ocean because that is what they feed from, it's as they say for every action there is a reaction :). This could in turn keep some form of strength for a little while, but I'm not counting on it. 

It won't be "feeding" from the sea by the time it reaches Ireland, to continue being a "Hurricane" and drawing energy from the sea it has to be over 26°c+ water. The driving forces will be the weather systems around it, and if they drive it inland then inland it will go. Even in the tropics they are sensitive to the air masses around them, not the sea.

[Daniel*]

34 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

The GFS shows southeast direction storms for Cork

Historically the worst direction locally as the tide backs up in the harbour (corks worst flooding always came with a southeast wind)

Storm surge, southeast winds, heavy rain = ?

Evacuations of low lying areas possibly before the brunt of the storm arrives preparation should be in the works IMO better to be safe than sorry - the storm surge is what I’m most worried about. 

Edited October 13, 2017 by Daniel*

[Fiona Robertson]

Looking a bit worse for me. The centre seems to pass over Oban and Fort William, about 100 miles NW of me, but the strongest gusts seem to be SE of the centre and hitting Dumfries and Galloway. Oh well... I can nail down the horses and staple the cats to 'em.

[Nick F]

15 minutes ago, OPHELIA said:

Can I take this moment to say and not contradicting your post but storms like this do intend to stay out in the ocean because that is what they feed from, it's as they say for every action there is a reaction :). This could in turn keep some form of strength for a little while, but I'm not counting on it. 

By the time Ophelia reaches Ireland waters it will be extratropical meaning that it derives most of its energy from horizontal temperature contrasts of Polar and Tropical air masses along baroclinic zones i.e. Cold/warm fronts and occluded fronts. The large scale ascent of air at the surface created by divergence aloft by left exits and right entrances of jet streaks which the depression moves into helping to deepen the low if they phase favourably. 

Whereas true hurricanes derive energy from warm sea temperatures above 26C, certainly the seas around Ireland won't be the main source of energy

5 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

@Nick F if “hypothetically” you were going to pick a spot in Ireland for landfall, where would you go... no pressure like  

Most likely over the western side of County Kerry. 

[OPHELIA]

1 minute ago, SnowBear said:

It won't be "feeding" from the sea by the time it reaches Ireland, to continue being a "Hurricane" and drawing energy from the sea it has to be over 26°c+ water. The driving forces will be the weather systems around it, and if they drive it inland then inland it will go. Even in the tropics they are sensitive to the air masses around them, not the sea.

I didn't say it would be a hurricane, but in nature it will stay out at seas to live(no I'm not saying this is a living organism), I already know weather systems can change it, but you seem to be treating it as a tropical storm in your comment, I don't believe it has to be over 26c water, it just needs to be over water no matter the temperature because that is how most storms like this form and live may it be hot or cold, and let me warp your mind even more...please do remember we are in a severe climate change so you and I both don't know what the hell we are talking about....the fact is...can you accept this ;).

[OPHELIA]

5 minutes ago, Nick F said:

By the time Ophelia reaches Ireland waters it will be extratropical meaning that it derives most of its energy from horizontal temperature contrasts of Polar and Tropical air masses along baroclinic zones i.e. Cold/warm fronts and occluded fronts. The large scale ascent of air at the surface created by divergence aloft by left exits and right entrances of jet streaks which the depression moves into helping to deepen the low if they phase favourably. 

Whereas true hurricanes derive energy from warm sea temperatures above 26C, certainly the seas around Ireland won't be the main source of energy

Most likely over the western side of County Kerry. 

Ok please do stop, you guys keep forgetting the climate is changing, you have to accept this.....wow.