Hurricane Ophelia

[Thermohaline Conveyor]

5 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Nice sat image 

That's one for the bedroom wall that! Fantastic.

[The Eagle]

2 minutes ago, Thermohaline Conveyor said:

Yes it does look that way.  I head a feeling the trending would be marginally more to the West and it seems to have panned out that way.  Well lets just say that it seems to be panning out this way thus far, we still have a few more runs until the wobbles firm up.  A slight shift left or right would still not be unusual given the set-up.  Ophelia still needs to interact with the upper trough and undergo extra tropical transitioning and this will largely determine the track on approach to Ireland.  Interesting though because if you analyse the potential temperature at 850hpa you will notice that Ophelia still has a warm core on approach and during the early passage across W Ireland, largely suggesting she maintains quite a strong tropical dynamic.  I think by the stage she makes landfall she will be entering a warm seclusion process but nevertheless a rare and exciting sight indeed.  You over there in Dublin will certainly feel the effect of Ophelia with inland gales gusting 50-60mph, perhaps edging 70mph in exposed coastal locales and across higher terrain.

It's an extraordinary moment. Who would have thought a week or two a go we would have hurricane warning cones from the NHC over our region, focus from US weather and hurricane experts and possibly the strongest storm in decades!? Fascinating few days!

Edited October 13, 2017 by The Eagle

[OPHELIA]

3 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

It's an extraordinary moment. Who would have thought a week or two a go we would have hurricane warning cones from the NHC over our region, focus from US weather and hurricane experts and possibly the strongest storm in decades!? Fascinating few days!

I always seen it coming, it was just a matter of time. I spoke to others about this before 10+ years ago....they laughed at me .

Edited October 13, 2017 by OPHELIA

[Man With Beard]

ECM 12Z coming out ... For the life of me I thought it was further east but ended up by T72 in roughly the same place. Looks very nasty this one. I'll be able to see wind speeds in a minute...

[The Eagle]

6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM 12Z coming out ... For the life of me I thought it was further east but ended up by T72 in roughly the same place. Looks very nasty this one. I'll be able to see wind speeds in a minute...

If that makes landfall as expected around Co Galway or Mayo, very serious.

Edited October 13, 2017 by The Eagle

[OPHELIA]

National Weather Warnings

 

STATUS YELLOW

Weather Advisory for Ireland

On Monday, an Atlantic storm from the remnants of Hurricane Ophelia will move northwards close to Ireland. There is still a high degree of uncertainty regarding the exact track and evolution of the storm. However, storm force winds, heavy rain and high seas are threatened. Met Eireann will continue to monitor this storm and will issue appropriate warnings as required.

Issued:

Friday 13 October 2017 08:00

Valid:Monday 16 October 2017 06:00 to Tuesday 17 October 2017 06:00

Met Eireann

[Man With Beard]

Still touching 100mph, more generally 80-90mph round coasts of S/W Ireland.

An average gale elsewhere. 

Very good model agreement tonight.

[OPHELIA]

Image of hurricane #Ophelia this afternoon Currently located approx 1,300km west of the Canary Islands. Due to affect Ireland from Sun night.

 

[OPHELIA]

17 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

If that makes landfall as expected around Co Galway or Mayo, very serious.

I wonder how it would feel to stand at the Cliffs of Moher?.......as in 20ft away or more haha.Cliffs Of Moher

[cyclonic happiness]

What sort of rainfall can we expect from this? will that affect the mainland UK?  I know how much water these things have the potential to dump.

[radiohead]

Interesting to compare the GFS today with the GFS back in  Feb 2014 on the day of "Storm Darwin", which produced gusts of up to 159 km/h at Shannon Airport and Met Eireann described as "broadly  a  1  in  20  year  event  although  locally,  the  categorisation  as  'worst  in  living  memory'  may  be  appropriate  in  the  worst  affected  regions." [https://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/2014StormDarwin.pdf]

"Ophelia"                                                      "Darwin"

 

[Thermohaline Conveyor]

12 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Still touching 100mph, more generally 80-90mph round coasts of S/W Ireland.

An average gale elsewhere. 

Very good model agreement tonight.

Sounds about right.  Potentially around 100mph across N Wales too especially in your typical spots such as Capel Curig.  Also gusting close to hurricane force across Cumbria.  Ireland inland widespread gusts to 60mph, wouldn't be surprised to see localised 70mph especially inland to higher ground and in exposed locations to lower levels.  Theses wind speeds will cause issues usually but especially so considering the foliage abundance on the tree this early in autumn, coupled with saturated soil weakening tree roots - impact due to fallen trees is relatively high.  Timing looks to be from Monday afternoon into the Evening across Ireland and through the early hours and into Tuesday morning for the rest of England, Scotland and Wales (mainly Western and Northern parts).

[Mokidugway]

1 minute ago, Thermohaline Conveyor said:

Sounds about right.  Potentially around 100mph across N Wales too especially in your typical spots such as Capel Curig.  Also gusting close to hurricane force across Cumbria.  Ireland inland widespread gusts to 60mph, wouldn't be surprised to see localised 70mph especially inland to higher ground and in exposed locations to lower levels.  Theses wind speeds will cause issues usually but especially so considering the foliage abundance on the tree this early in autumn, coupled with saturated soil weakening tree roots - impact due to fallen trees is relatively high.  Timing looks to be from Monday afternoon into the Evening across Ireland and through the early hours and into Tuesday morning for the rest of England, Scotland and Wales (mainly Western and Northern parts).

I would imagine great dun fell  in Cumbria will record wind in excess of 100 mph ,expecting 50 to 60 gusts here .

[OPHELIA]

5 minutes ago, cyclonic happiness said:

What sort of rainfall can we expect from this? will that affect the mainland UK?  I know how much water these things have the potential to dump.

Not much tbh, mostly North Ireland and Scotland will see most of the rain, this is a fast moving system so it won't hang around long enough to cause major floods or 100+mm like they produce in tropical climates. The main effects are wind/gust and swells. Luckily the ground is not saturated in mountain areas.

[Mokidugway]

Just now, OPHELIA said:

Not much tbh, mostly North Ireland and Scotland will see most of the rain, this is a fast moving system so it won't hang around long enough to cause major floods or 100+mm like they produce in tropical climates. The main effects are wind/gust and swells. Luckily the ground is not saturated in mountain areas.

Trailing fronts caused the flooding in the Lake District,24 hours + of torrential rain .

[OPHELIA]

1 minute ago, Mokidugway said:

Trailing fronts caused the flooding in the Lake District,24 hours + of torrential rain .

I don't see 24hr torrential rain...for anywhere.

[Thermohaline Conveyor]

Just now, OPHELIA said:

I don't see 24hr torrential rain...for anywhere.

Trailing fronts were responsible for the recent flooding in Cumbria, i think that is what he means.

[OPHELIA]

2 minutes ago, Thermohaline Conveyor said:

Trailing fronts were responsible for the recent flooding in Cumbria, i think that is what he means.

That's understandable, sorry @Mokidugway my fault, miss read, peace.

[Mokidugway]

Sorry was making tea and typing 

[OPHELIA]

4 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Sorry was making tea and typing 

Oh I can make tea no problem, legend has it I'm the best tea maker ...30+ years making tea I have it down to a T.

 

Honestly I'm rummaging around for information online and I got a little mixed up ooop's, this storm has my head swirling .....so many puns.

Edited October 13, 2017 by OPHELIA

[Mokidugway]

Just now, OPHELIA said:

Oh I can make tea no problem, legend has it I'm the best tea maker ...30+ years making tea I have it down to a T.

Lol, milk in first ,it bends the molecules in a favourable way to enhance your beverage .

[The PIT]

28 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Interesting to compare the GFS today with the GFS back in  Feb 2014 on the day of "Storm Darwin", which produced gusts of up to 159 km/h at Shannon Airport and Met Eireann described as "broadly  a  1  in  20  year  event  although  locally,  the  categorisation  as  'worst  in  living  memory'  may  be  appropriate  in  the  worst  affected  regions." [https://www.met.ie/climate-ireland/weather-events/2014StormDarwin.pdf]

"Ophelia"                                                      "Darwin"

 

Yeh the one in  xxx years is generally misunderstood. The odds remain the same for each year it doesn't mean they will be twenty years between them. Anyway it still a case of wait and see.

Interesting comparison well now it's a case of wait and see.

[OPHELIA]

1 minute ago, Mokidugway said:

Lol, milk in first ,it bends the molecules in a favourable way to enhance your beverage .

No no no you have it wrong, it's all in the stirring motion, water must not be too hot, the convection within the tea bag(air pocket) must be just right as it floats to the higher surface for cooling, then the special ingredient happens of the flavour mixing with the surrounding warm waters. Much like a hurricane really. As the tea bag and water move in a  cyclonic motion you must remove the tea bag, then add milk slowly, you will notice the milk mixes in perfectly well without the needing to stir with a spoon......that sounds weather related I think. 

[Mokidugway]

Just now, OPHELIA said:

No no no you have it wrong, it's all in the stirring motion, water must not be too hot, the convection within the tea bag(air pocket) must be just right as it floats to the higher surface for cooling, then the special ingredient happens of the flavour mixing with the surrounding warm waters. Much like a hurricane really. As the tea bag and water move in a  cyclonic motion you must remove the tea bag, then add milk slowly, you will notice the milk mixes in perfectly well without the needing to stir with a spoon......that sounds weather related I think. 

Think I'll get a tassimo 

[OPHELIA]

1 minute ago, Mokidugway said:

Think I'll get a tassimo 

The perfect storm O_O