Hurricane Ophelia

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Never seen such a feature on the GFS take of Ophelia on this mornings  00z

 

Incredible stuff, but could this situation become a more common thing in the future?

[January Snowstorm]

Well as is regularly the case a mix of both models this morning.

In general not as severe more standard fare imo

[Man With Beard]

ECM 00Z keeps Ophelia strong as it hits Ireland (90-100mph gusts on SW coast here) but not impacting the Welsh/NW English coast as much as yesterday (70mph the general max) - the strongest windfield is slightly further west

[Nick F]

00z EC and UKMO still appear to be tracking ex-Ophelia up far western side of Ireland, hard to tell if landfall given 12hr positions, but ECMWF will update on Icelandic weather service in 6hr positions around 8am, so will find out then.

 

Fortunately, the depression looks to fill quickly as it passes over far west of Ireland.

Edited October 13, 2017 by Nick F

[Longtimelurker]

18 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Well as is regularly the case a mix of both models this morning.

In general not as severe more standard fare imo

Good old January always full of nonsense. Yes a Cat2 5mph short of cat3 hurricane set to make landfall in Ireland around the strength of a cat 1 hurricane wind speed wise is standard fare.

[snowydog]

16 hours ago, knocker said:

 

I'm in Belfast - wonder should I take down the Gazebo I've been using it to cover bbq are coming into wet months - it's not even mine - I borrowed it. Hmm probably will have to just incase. it's tied to fence (new 2 yrs) and pegged in two side of it lol!

 

P.S - I'm shattered from not sleeping so I don't know if this made sense.

 

 

[Love Snow]

Here's the latest track forecast for #HurricaneOphelia as it slowly tracks towards the UK, forecast to bring strong winds to areas. #Ophelia https://t.co/HoeehHRHow

[knocker]

At 1800 Monday the ecm has it 968mb just west of Kerry and at 00 980mb on the Donegal coast so it will traverse Connemara and Mayo en route. It has the strongest winds, very briefly possibly gusting 80kts, along the south west coast. But obviously this depends entirely on the precise track.

[radiohead]

Looks like a severe event on the T84 FAX. Very tightly packed isobars.

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

Presumably if they remake her 'storm brian' she will become the first transgender storm in history ??

'Remake' ?  Meant rename and the answer is that they won't 

[Snowyowl9]

Coming exactly on the anniversary of the the great storm/hurricane of 1987 bizzare but true.

Seems to be wavering back and for 0z chart further east.

[Nick L]

This hurricane season is officially insane.

[karlos1983]

Well, I now can't go to Ireland due to work. I am having to go to Wales on Monday - Tuesday, so I for one hope it tracks further east than expected. It's not looking likely though. 

I will be on the arrows tip 

[Nick L]

59 minutes ago, Nick F said:

00z EC and UKMO still appear to be tracking ex-Ophelia up far western side of Ireland, hard to tell if landfall given 12hr positions, but ECMWF will update on Icelandic weather service in 6hr positions around 8am, so will find out then.

 

Fortunately, the depression looks to fill quickly as it passes over far west of Ireland.

Just a sneak peek from the EC for you.

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Just a sneak peek from the EC for you.

963mb 

Portmagee shout looking good 

Edited October 13, 2017 by karlos1983

[Nick L]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

963mb 

A couple of frames back it's 957mb.

[Barbmac]

8 minutes ago, Nick L said:

This hurricane season is officially insane.

Can I ask a rookie question: Where does a post-tropical cyclone like Ophelia get the energy from to become a hurricane again, in our part of the world? Are the waters warm enough or is it something else entirely?  And not looking good for Ireland or Scotland, at this rate.

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, Nick L said:

A couple of frames back it's 957mb.

Do the numbers denote Sustained wind speed presumably Nick?

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, Barbmac said:

Can I ask a rookie question: Where does a post-tropical cyclone like Ophelia get the energy from to become a hurricane again, in our part of the world? Are the waters warm enough or is it something else entirely?  And not looking good for Ireland or Scotland, at this rate.

It won't become a hurricane again, all characteristics of a hurricane are gone as it hits cooler water way south of Ireland, eyewall etc. But it will still give hurricane strength winds. 

[Another Kent clipper]

There's a nice rainy thing coming in from my west

 

 

[Jo Farrow]

3 minutes ago, Barbmac said:

Can I ask a rookie question: Where does a post-tropical cyclone like Ophelia get the energy from to become a hurricane again, in our part of the world? Are the waters warm enough or is it something else entirely?  And not looking good for Ireland or Scotland, at this rate.

Some answers in here https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/8491-whats-all-this-quotits-not-a-hurricanequot-stuff-ophelia-heads-our-way A hurricane (cyclone) can turn extra tropical but not back again to a warm core hurricane. 

[Jo Farrow]

[Nick L]

3 minutes ago, Barbmac said:

Can I ask a rookie question: Where does a post-tropical cyclone like Ophelia get the energy from to become a hurricane again, in our part of the world? Are the waters warm enough or is it something else entirely?  And not looking good for Ireland or Scotland, at this rate.

With sea surface temperatures at our latitude, it won't be able to regain tropical characteristics. 

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Do the numbers denote Sustained wind speed presumably Nick?

No they are gusts, but very sparse gridpoints! The highest gust I can find on the EC from this is approx 90mph.

[booferking]

Co Kerry sees the worst of the winds 102 gusts batten down the hatches tralee.

Edited October 13, 2017 by booferking

[Barbmac]

Thanks for your answers, karlos, Jo and Nick.   Your article is most helpful, Jo, I have some reading to do!