Hurricane Ophelia

[The Eagle]

It's a long shot but increasing chatter that this may, just may, make it to landfall as a Cat 1 as unbelievable as that sounds! Would want to be some sprint!

 

 

Going to be fascinating to watch whatever happens, albeit worrying for many.

Edited October 12, 2017 by The Eagle

[Daniel*]

Arpege 12z looks alarming the wind field of extreme winds on the southern flank is very wide this could have widespread impacts, all you can do is hope it tracks west of Ireland however this is becoming less likely.

 

[OPHELIA]

@The Eagle

Are we ready for this again? Irish Weather Woman's Dramatic Storm Warning

[Ice Man 85]

[The Eagle]

Slight shift east on 18z gfs - but it remains the most westerly push with the center staying just off-shore.

Edited October 12, 2017 by The Eagle

[January Snowstorm]

Just now, The Eagle said:

Slight shift east on 18z gfs - but it remains the most westerly push.

Indeed and if that trend continues its bingo

[karlos1983]

18z keeps the core west of Ireland. This is by no means nailed. A lot will depend on when the hurricane interacts with the trough. Earlier will take a west track, later will bring a tracker further east. Chris Fawkes explanation on Twitter. Not my words. 

Anyway 18z gfs 

[Nick F]

The unusually active hurricane season seems to be not going out with a whimper, as Ophelia now being a cat. 2 storm makes it the strongest an Atlantic hurricane that has been this far east (35.5°W) this late in calendar year on record.

18z still keeping Ophelia well west of Ireland, the 12z European models (UKMET-G, ECMWF and ARPEGE) tracking Ophelia over Ireland, be interesting if the Euros back west in the morning runs!

Have updated my blog recently which is tracking Ophelia: 

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/8492-tracking-hurricane-ophelia-heading-our-way-as-an-ex-tropical-storm

[Ice Man 85]

2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

The unusually active hurricane season seems to be not going out with a whimper, as Ophelia now being a cat. 2 storm makes it the strongest an Atlantic hurricane that has been this far east (35.5°W) this late in calendar year on record.

18z still keeping Ophelia well west of Ireland, the 12z European models (UKMET-G, ECMWF and ARPEGE) tracking Ophelia over Ireland, be interesting if the Euros back west in the morning runs!

Have updated my blog recently which is tracking Ophelia: 

https://www.netweather.tv/weather-forecasts/news/8492-tracking-hurricane-ophelia-heading-our-way-as-an-ex-tropical-storm

I pray they do. Those poor people might want to start kissing that blarney stone now.

[Met4Cast]

It would be kinda cool to witness the first ever official hurricane to hit the UK, it'd definitely be something that goes down in history. Though I highly doubt it will, all forecasts/projections show it hitting as a post tropical cyclone, though saying that did anyone expect it to reach Cat 2 status? 

This is fascinating! 

[Daniel*]

Perhaps Trump prophesied - is this the calm before the storm?  

[The Eagle]

Surreal, to see this being discussed on the weather channel!

[jy]

Much interest and understandably so,but being 700ft ASL in Kent,in 1987 was not a place for the faint hearted I can tell you,interesting times but hopefully with everyone safe.

[Mapantz]

I've only just caught up with all this, in fact I had no idea what was going on until I popped on here for ten minutes. If I didn't have the family duties that I currently have, i would have gone over to Ireland for this. I don't know how models really cope these days, but I do know they used to struggle when storms came in or developed in the area that is currently being modeled.

[Britneyfan]

It does look like potential for it to arrive in Ireland and uk as a category 1 hurricane!! This must be first time ever 

[The Eagle]

Hurricane season in Ireland  Night all

 

[Malcolm Houston]

Great to see Met Eireann taking their usual calm approach

Just a bit windy, be grand sure

Edited October 12, 2017 by Malcolm Houston

[Snowman.]

Looks to be intensifying.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/17L/flash-rbtop-long.html

 

 

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

Would greater strength push it further east? In terms of forcing the euro high. 

Edited October 13, 2017 by Ross Andrew Hemphill

[The PIT]

Ophelia has strengthened further apparently gfs 00z has it going up the western side ireland. A shift towards yesterdays ecm.  Local forecast have increased gusts to 42 mph. 

[The PIT]

Met Office now saying keep watching for updates

[The Eagle]

Models in general have pushed it further west, GFS a little east.

Overall it may not make landfall.

[knocker]

Not precise agreement between the latest fax and this morning's gfs vis depth and position although both running up close to the west Irish coast so the strongest winds across Ireland and western Scotland

At 12 Monday it's still phased with the Atlantic trough, but about to part company, as the latter is in the process of splitting and Ophelia to start tracking north east and quite rapidly filling.

The 850mb temp anomaly quite interesting showing the warm 'core' and the WAA to the east and the wrap around cold trough.

Edited October 13, 2017 by knocker

[Jo Farrow]

[bluearmy]

Presumably if they remake her 'storm brian' she will become the first transgender storm in history ??